When a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers is in the middle of a terrible losing streak, dropping their final four into the playoffs, the stars must play like stars. Everyone has to elevate their game, but ‘A’ players like EDGE T.J. Watt have to lead the charge. Watt has been held out of the sack column through the final three games of the Steelers’ regular-season losing streak. For him, that’s a rarity.
It’s the first time since 2018, his sophomore season, that Watt has gone three straight regular-season games without at least a half-sack, excluding games missed due to injury, of course. And it’s only the fourth time in his overall career. Here’s a catalog of those streaks.
T.J. Watt’s Longest Sack Droughts
1. Weeks 8-11, 2017 (3 games)
2. Weeks 2-4, 2018 (3 games)
3. Weeks 12-14, 2018 (3 games)
4. Weeks 16-18, 2024 (3 games)
Since he’s become a household name, the T.J. Watt offensive coordinators fear and plan around, Watt’s never had a drought like this. It’s that quiet finish that has him no longer the DPOY favorite, and it’s hard to gripe if he loses. Watt had a far better case in 2023 and 2020 than he does this year.
Obviously, there are caveats. He had a sack wiped off the board in Week 18’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. And coordinators are still planning to take him away with chips, slides, and everything they usually do. Still, in a year where a healthy Watt had his worst sack numbers since his rookie season, the Steelers defense needs him to be dominant if they want to pull off an upset in Saturday night’s Wild Card game.
The Steelers’ lack of success without Watt is documented. They almost never win if he’s hurt and out of the lineup. But when he doesn’t record a sack, Pittsburgh becomes pretty average. Since his breakout 2019 campaign in which he made his first All-Pro team, the Steelers are 15-13 when Watt doesn’t record at least a half-sack. As you’d suspect, the more sacks he recorded, the higher the team’s chances of winning are.
Steelers’ Win Percentage With Watt’s Sacks (2019-2024)
Zero Sacks: 15-13 (.537 winning percentage)
0.5-1 Sacks: 20-14-1 (.586 winning percentage)
1.5+ Sacks: 22-5 (.815 winning percentage)
Much of that is obvious, I’m sure. The better Watt plays, the better the team does. But it’s important to put the numbers to it.
Beating Baltimore is a full-team effort. The entire weight of the outcome shouldn’t be placed on Watt’s shoulders alone. But if his three-game streak turns into a career-long four-straight, it will be hard for Pittsburgh’s season to continue past Saturday night.
