The Pittsburgh Steelers are on a three-game losing streak, and among the issues has been their play in the red zone. Today, I wanted to look at both sides of the ball, giving visual context and takeaways.
Let’s start with Pittsburgh’s offense. Here are weekly red zone touchdown rates through Week 17:
We definitely see a rollercoaster of ups and downs, including their most recent loss against the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers went 1-of-4 (25-percent) in Week 17, simply too many missed opportunities against that caliber of team. Not only did they fail to score overall in another multi-possession 29-10 loss, but turning the ball over on a red zone interception was a big swing in KC’s favor.
They are well below their season average, which painfully ranks next to last in the league. Here are the numbers by week:
Week 1 vs. Falcons: 2 attempts, 0-percent.
Week 2 vs. Broncos: 2 attempts, 50-percent.
Week 3 vs. Chargers: 4 attempts, 25-percent.
Week 4 vs. Colts: 4 attempts, 75-percent.
Week 5 vs. Cowboys: 2 attempts, 100-percent.
Week 6 vs. Raiders: 4 attempts, 50-percent.
Week 7 vs. Jets: 6 attempts, 66.7-percent.
Week 8 vs. Giants: 4 attempts, 0-percent.
Week 9 BYE
Week 10 vs. Commanders: 4 attempts, 75-percent.
Week 11 vs. Ravens: 4 attempts, 0-percent.
Week 12 vs. Browns: 2 attempts, 50-percent.
Week 13 vs. Bengals: 4 attempts, 50-percent.
Week 14 vs. Browns: 4 attempts, 50-percent.
Week 15 vs. Eagles: 2 attempts, 50-percent.
Week 16 vs. Ravens: 2 attempts, 100-percent.
Week 17 vs. Chiefs: 4 attempts, 25-percent.
Recently, Pittsburgh had been 50-percent or higher before that game since Week 12. It hasn’t correlated to wins, though, with a 2-3 record in that five-game stretch. Another issue is not getting to the red zone often enough, just two trips each in the Eagles (27-13) and Ravens (34-17) losses. Six games with two attempts on the year and three since Week 12, all losses.
Five games were the worst in rates. Pittsburgh failed to get a red zone score in three games this season and had another early in the year. Until the Chiefs game, the team had been able to overcome that fact until Christmas Day.
While the offense surely needs to step up, that’s a perfect segue to how things have been going on defense:
There is a clear downtrend after the bye week, below their season average, which ranks 16th through Week 17. This is certainly a factor in their four losses in the span and has also allowed teams to reach the red area much more often overall since Week 12.
Here are the weekly numbers:
Week 1 vs. Falcons: 2 attempts, 50-percent.
Week 2 vs. Broncos: 3 attempts, 0-percent.
Week 3 vs. Chargers: 1 attempt, 0-percent.
Week 4 vs. Colts: 5 attempts, 60-percent.
Week 5 vs. Cowboys: 4 attempts, 25-percent.
Week 6 vs. Raiders: 3 attempts, 66.7-percent.
Week 7 vs. Jets: 3 attempts, 66.7-percent.
Week 8 vs. Giants: 3 attempts, 0-percent.
Week 9 BYE
Week 10 vs. Commanders: 3 attempts, 100-percent.
Week 11 vs. Ravens: 2 attempts, 100-percent.
Week 12 vs. Browns: 4 attempts, 75-percent.
Week 13 vs. Bengals: 5 attempts, 80-percent.
Week 14 vs. Browns: 3 attempts, 33.3-percent.
Week 15 vs. Eagles: 6 attempts, 50-percent.
Week 16 vs. Ravens: 5 attempts, 60-percent.
Week 17 vs. Chiefs: 5 attempts, 80-percent.
Four attempts or more in all but one game since Week 12, each with a 50-percent conversion rate or worse. While Pittsburgh’s offense definitely has issues in the red zone, the defense’s downward spiral has plummeted recently atop the AFC North squad in this tough stretch against the division and playoff teams.
Along with those painful facts, the Steelers’ defense allowed two perfect red zone rate outings by opposing offenses but was able to overcome them with three attempts or less each game after the bye. Pittsburgh limited its opponents to three red zone drives or less in six games in the first eight weeks, compared to just three times in the last eight games.
Pittsburgh’s defense has certainly digressed in red zone defense, looking like a completely different defense since the bye in both quantity and quality and not in a good way. The unit was among the best in football early this year, ranking second in red zone touchdown rates through Week 8. That’s plummeted down to 16th on the year, which feels much worse than that rank, given their recent results.
With how the Pittsburgh Steelers are built, leaning on their defense so heavily, we get specific context to a big part of the team’s recent struggles. Clearly, they’ve shown an ability to perform well in the red area, which will hopefully look much better in a meaningful finale against Cincinnati. They are rising as Pittsburgh is falling, keeping their playoff hopes alive. They also converted 4-of-5 (80-percent) red zone trips in the first 44-38 shootout.
Thankfully, Pittsburgh came out victorious, despite the offense going 2-4 (50-percent). The Steelers wins and losses clearly correlate more to defensive success (or lack thereof). Knock on wood they have a good outing against a potent Bengals offense, with plenty to play for aiming to make the playoffs on a four-game winning streak, last losing to Pittsburgh.
Tall task, after showing clear struggles in this regard against them last time. Important in my opinion, heading into the postseason, with bad overall results against that caliber of teams in their three-game losing streak. Here’s to hoping the Steelers are a much better red zone team the rest of the way.
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
