The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 10-7, on an unfortunate four-game losing streak to end the 2024 regular season against the 9-8 Cincinnati Bengals. It’s a disaster.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work, which helped me learn much about what I’m using in the visual series. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision and bats at the line of scrimmage. Two throwaways and bats were removed.
QB Russell Wilson went 17/31 on the stat sheet (54.8 rate), the worst of 2024. 148 passing yards was far from enough, with just 31 in the first half—disgusting. At least there was one passing touchdown within that, and there were no interceptions. 4.8 yards per attempt was a 2024 low for Wilson, and he was also sacked four times.
It wasn’t the most pressure he’s faced, but his pressure-to-sack rate was second-most this year. Unable to capitalize on early opportunities, though they weren’t plentiful, with heavy rushing early on in another slow start, including three-and-outs and Cincinnati dominating the time of possession battle.
Receivers also deserve their share of the blame for the abysmal offensive performance. They had four drops, the most for Pittsburgh’s entire 2024 season. The drops came at the worst time, as the team was trying to right its losing streak heading into the postseason, but unfortunately, the pain continues.
Situationally, Pittsburgh went a poor 4-of-12 on third downs and 0-for-2 on fourth down, including a chance to win the game late. Instead, a big third-down miscue and a fourth-down drop were more examples of the mistake of the month club. One improvement was red zone, going 2-for-2, but not enough trips there, and couldn’t capitalize on the defense holding Cincinnati to 1-for-4.
Limiting the Bengals offense in the 19-17 loss should have been enough for victory. But instead, Pittsburgh’s offense failed to show up, scoring 17 points or fewer in all four losses to end the season. Gotta score more points for any hope this postseason.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 27 charted passes, with the number of throws at each pass distance for Week 18:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 48.1-percent. 13 passes. The first came after a nice defensive interception from CB Beanie Bishop Jr., and the offense starting their fourth drive with a bat in the air for a near pick of their own. Whew.
The following play was a wide-open out route to TE Pat Freiermuth at four air yards, providing YAC for an 11-yard gain and first down. As of late, successful plays have been followed up with negative ones too often, this time a throwaway.
The next play was another out route to Freiermuth, adding more YAC, this time for nine yards that was short of the chains upon review. The Steelers proceeded to fail on a 3rd and 1 sneak that should have easily converted (no gain) and a RB Jaylen Warren 4th and 1 failed run. Both were overturned conversions, so three straight plays teasingly couldn’t extend the drive and gave Cincinnati another chance and FG before halftime.
Down 13-7, Pittsburgh got one more chance before heading to the locker room, but it was a sack on Wilson (G Isaac Seumalo) with just 16 seconds on the clock.
Pittsburgh got the ball first to start the third quarter. After a frustrating toss to RB Najee Harris that lost four yards (really, that’s your best opening play?), it’s 2nd and 14. Wilson dumps it to Harris at three air yards, with a bit of churn on a six-yard gain. The drive went three-and-out, which the Steelers did on their first possessions of each half. Gross.
Then, in the fourth quarter, when 66.7 percent of Wilson’s total charted passes came, sheesh. Down 19-7, the Steelers began with two out routes to WR Van Jefferson that each picked up five yards. The second was a dangerous throw that the DB was all over, pointing to the predictability of the play-calling and routes.
The next play, you guessed it, was another out to Freiermuth but off-target ahead of him and incomplete. Yes, take what the defense gives you, but that wasn’t the case as they were sniffing these out. The following play was back to Jefferson for another five air-yarder, this time on a stop route, getting a bit of YAC to gain eight.
3rd and 2 now, and Wilson checks down to Harris over the middle at three air yards, rallied but able to pick up four on the conversion. Then the variety continued at other pass distances, adding this much-needed scoring drive, cutting the deficit to 19-14.
The Steelers’ defense thankfully held, getting the offense the ball with 5:54 left. The drive, unfortunately, started with a bat, though. Then 2nd and 10, another out to Freiermuth from the slot that picked up nine yards against conservative coverage. With the game on the line, this drive also went three-and-out, come on, man. But Connor Heyward stepped up huge on special teams, recovering the muff off a Cincinnati player’s foot just in bounds, heady play.
With yet another chance for the offense to do something, they start with a stop route to WR George Pickens, going right through his hands. It was an uncharacteristically horrid game with seven targets, one catch, zero yards, and multiple drops, including this untimely one. Inexplicable.
The following play was another out route, with Freiermuth able to pick up ten and get out of bounds. Then, scream at the T.V. moments ensued. A shotgun toss to RB Cordarrelle Patterson, who has lacked success much of the year, got one yard. Then, T Dan Moore was beaten around the edge, allowing the sack of Wilson.
Behind the chains now, facing a 3rd and 25, with 3:19 left and down five points. The decision is throwing a quick slant (that route is legal?) to pick up seven yards, getting Chris Boswell a closer attempt. The money kicker is clutch again, connecting on the 54-yarder to cut the deficit to 19-17 with 2:44 on the clock.
Pittsburgh’s defense held again, doing their part admirably with a three-and-out stop. But a disaster drive ensued. A 2nd and 12 was the only play at this pass distance, throwing to Freiermuth in the flat for just three yards and unable to get out of bounds at 1:30. The rails ended up falling off, including face-palming Wilson plays.
Unnecessarily scrambling for three yards, then sacked (Moore), and miscue deep ball to Pickens. Then, a deflating drop ended the game. Infuriating. I’ll reference this as the “flounder drive” in more detail later that capped off such a disappointing end to Pittsburgh’s regular season.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: 25.9-percent. 7 examples, just two yet to be mentioned, though. First was a 3rd and 3 fail in the second quarter, a quick stop route to Jefferson against tight coverage incomplete on this three-and-out drive. Ugh.
Then, the final play on the “flounder drive.” 4th and 12, with 15 seconds left and everything on the line, a nice throw on an in-breaker is dropped by Freiermuth at ten air yards. Wilson gave him a chance and, though the target was short of the sticks, liked his chances to pick up the first down if caught. Pittsburgh was out of timeouts and, if prepared, could likely have spiked the ball with a chance for the Hail Mary.
It was an extremely frustrating ending, but the Steelers offense had plenty of opportunities earlier in the game to avoid that situation.
#3. 10-15 air-yards: 18.5-percent. Five here. Pittsburgh faced 3rd and 8 early third quarter, with Wilson and WR Calvin Austin on different pages on the intermediate out. The pass was slightly outside, as the route was seemingly rounded more than expected at 11 air yards, resulting in yet another three-and-out.
At 8:45 in the fourth quarter, Wilson makes a good throw to Pickens on the intermediate slant, but the DB works through his hands late to force the incompletion. We’ve seen Pickens come away with far more difficult catches, further context to his abysmal game. Wilson followed that up with a 12-yard scramble after a bobbled snap, a good recovery but painfully the longest run of the game.
That, fortunately, set up the wide-open red zone intermediate out route to Freiermuth, waltzing in on the nice concept where Jefferson occupied two defenders on his vertical route. This was the lone passing TD, decreasing the deficit to 19-14 on a rare quality drive with eight minutes left.
On the “flounder drive,” one play stood out positively. With 1:09 left in the game, this 3rd and 9 was an intermediate crosser to Freiermuth, a nice tight window throw and catch at 13 air yards for the huge conversion. This instilled hope, but that was short-lived after the excruciating unnecessary scramble, sack, Pickens miscue, and drop from Muth that was also at this distance.
#4. Behind-the-Line: 14.8-percent. Four plays. The first pass for Pittsburgh was a screen to Pickens, who was unable to find room with poor outside blocking (WR Ben Skowronek) for no gain on his lone catch. Remember, he was targeted seven times, yikes. Wilson rolled left the next 3rd and 7 but simply held it too long, resulting in a sack.
This opening drive went three-and-out, as the Steelers offense was unable to score a TD on any first drive in any 2024 game. Barf.
On drive two, the 2nd and 11 call was an RB screen to Harris, but pressure from an unblocked NFL sack leader in Trey Hendrickson affected Wilson on the low throw, which fell incomplete. Unfortunately, this was not the only time defenders came unblocked to make plays.
In the fourth quarter, Harris did a great job on a swing pass with a forced missed tackle and YAC for 12 yards but did get walloped at the end on an uncalled helmet-to-helmet hit. This chunk play aided the lone passing TD drive as well.
The last was frustratingly on the first play of the final “flounder drive”. Moore derailed late game, allowing constant pressure, including this dump to Harris that was tackled instantly as if Cincinnati’s defense was in the huddle.
#5. Explosive (20-plus air-yards): 11.1-percent. Only three, confusingly given the game circumstances. Yes, take what the defense gives you, but man, you have to be more aggressive against the best offenses/teams to win. Thankfully, Pittsburgh’s defense showed up, or it easily could have been a blowout.
First was the lone explosive play for Pittsburgh all game. This came on the final play of the first quarter, an awesome 3rd and 11 moon ball from Wilson to WR Mike Williams, making the fantastic toe-tap catch just in bounds. This was huge in setting up Pittsburgh’s only other scoring drive, capped off by a one-yard Harris TD.
The others were miscues to Pickens, each on third-and-long. The first one ended the second straight second-half drive that failed, a third-and-8 shot at 25 air yards that was another one a DB contested and knocked away late.
Then, the late miscue on the “flounder drive” I’ve been referencing. After Wilson is sacked, Pittsburgh faces 3rd and 12 with 20 seconds left, down by two points. Wilson and Pickens are not on the same page, with the latter running and out and up that was a good call that got open, but the throw is way outside of the route. No matter where the blame falls, that’s an ugly looking incompletion with the game on the line.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: 7.4-percent. Just one here. With 5:31 in the fourth quarter, Wilson rolls left on the scramble drill (Moore pressure), with this 3rd and 1 pass sailing over Pickens’ head, incomplete. This left the score at 19-14, and while many thought the decision to punt was the wrong choice, had much more confidence in the defense than how little the offense was able to do in this game, unfortunately.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
Another week dominated by five air yards or less. Largely targets to the right and between the numbers. It was a bit more intermediate than the last game, and all three explosives were to the right sideline.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 3/4 (75.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 11/13 (84.6-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 4/7 (57.1-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 2/5 (40.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 0/2 (0-percent).
Explosive: 1/3 (33.3-percent).
These numbers really point to the lack of connection past five yards, lacking quality and quantity (3-of-10). If that’s going to work, it better be a stellar yack game, and it was not to put it nicely.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 1/2 (50.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 2/4 (50.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 1/1 (100-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 5/7 (71.4-percent).
Outside right numbers: 8/13 (61.5-percent).
Favored the right side heavily, with between the hash and numbers being the better rate. There were several misses outside the numbers, but they did include the lone touchdown. There is a lack of throws and connection to the left and just one throw between the hashes on a dump-off.
Now for the heat maps for charted passes, then completions only:
Neither chart is inspiring, but the completions-only view really highlights how limited Pittsburgh’s success was in the passing game. Basically out and stop routes, not a winning formula, and this ugliness cannot happen again if you expect to win in the playoffs.
Next, here’s Wilson and Fields’ 447 charted throws of the 2024 regular season:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 40.3-percent. Previously 39.8-percent. 2023 35.0-percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 24.8-percent. Previously 24.8-percent. 2023 23.8-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: 16.1-percent. Previously 16.2-percent. 2023 18.5-percent.
#4. Explosive: 14.3-percent. Previously 14.5-percent. 2023 12.4-percent.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 10.1-percent. Previously 9.5-percent. 2023 13.0-percent.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 7.2-percent. Previously 7.1-percent. 2023 10.8-percent.
Pass distance rankings remained the same to close the 2024 season. The biggest increase was 10-15 air yards (0.6-percent). 0-5 and 15-20 also up ticked, while 5-10 stood pat. Slight decreases in behind-the-line and explosives, the latter most discouragingly.
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 44/52 (84.6-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 92/115 (80.0-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 48/69 (69.6-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 18/29 (62.1-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 12/23 (52.2-percent).
Explosive: 22/42 (52.4-percent).
FIELDS:
Behind-the-line: 15/20 (75.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 57/65 (87.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 30/42 (71.4-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/16 (50.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 5/9 (55.6-percent).
Explosive: 6/21 (28.6-percent).
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 50/81 (61.7-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 54/64 (84.4-percent).
Inside hashes: 16/22 (72.7-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 50/58 (86.2-percent).
Outside right numbers: 45/69 (65.2-percent).
FIELDS:
Outside left numbers: 35/53 (66.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 14/20 (70.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 11/13 (84.6-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 30/38 (78.9-percent).
Outside right numbers: 22/34 (64.7-percent).
To close, here are the dots along with heat maps for all charted attempts and completions only:
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
