Our draft article comments have been filled with too much hand-wringing, and it isn’t justified. Yes, Pittsburgh has wide open gaps at DT, WR, RB, and CB/DB as we sit here at the end of January. Plus no starting QB, and questions about the Steelers’ last two Round 1 picks at OT. But here’s the thing: I do not believe for a second that Omar Khan will go into the draft without first having filled every one of those except maybe RB. We are – “are”, not “might” – going to see a slew of established veteran signings on two-to four-year deals.
So in the spirit of emphasizing that factor, I am going to do a predictive mock here in late January. Predictive in the sense of showing how and why the Steelers will go into the draft looking for BPA above all and then illustrating what that might result in on draft day.
Assumptions About Free Agency
Dave Bryan has done the numbers work, so I feel comfortable in saying the team will go into free agency with some $42 million of cap space. This is usable room, after accounting for rookies, and without restructuring any current deals.
- CAP CASUALTIES.
EDGE Preston Smith ($13.4 million saved)
DT Larry Ogunjobi ($7 million saved)
ILB Cole Holcomb ($6 million saved)
RB Cordarrelle Patterson ($2.8 million saved)
DT Dean Lowry ($2.5 million saved) - O-LINE: Dan Moore Jr. departs at OT, and James Daniels departs at OG. There are no big-money additions to replace either one. The team will instead rely on the four 2023 and 2024 picks, plus Nate Herbig, Spencer Anderson, and Calvin Anderson as OL depth. Cap hit with bonus structure = $0.
- QB: Justin Fields will be the starting QB, with a veteran backup. The three- or four-year contract will be heavily front loaded to reduce the 2025 cap hit and have some interesting incentive bonuses. Cap hit with bonus structure for two free agents = $13 Million.
- RB: Najee Harris will depart. Jaylen Warren will be re-signed. Veteran minimum depth will be added just in case, but everyone will prioritize one of this year’s incredible RB class as a Round 1-4 draft target. Cap hit with bonus structure = $0. [N.B. “$0” in the material sense, not the technical reality].
- DT (Big Splash): Someone like the Bengals’ B.J. Hill or Jets’ Javon Kinlaw will get a gasp-worthy deal. Cap hit with bonus structure = $10-12 Million. That’s what they cost folks.
- WR (Medium BIG Splash: The Steelers will sign the likes of Christian Kirk (a likely cap casualty), a solid WR2 like Darius Slayton, or an aging and former WR1 like Amari Cooper (turns 31 in June) or Davante Adams (turns 33 in December). George Pickens will not get an extension this summer. The team will instead explain that this is a “show me year” in which he can earn a fortune or lose a fortune. Cap hit with bonus structure = $10 Million.
- CB (Moderate Splash): Either Donte Jackson will return, or the team will hire a similarly accomplished, mid-level pro. Noises will go out about the team really liking Coy Trice Jr. and Beanie Bishop Jr. even though each is still a matter of projection. Cap hit with bonus structure = $4 Million.
Cap hit for all those moves = $39-41 Million. Free agency at this level is doable in 2025, which means it’s all but certain to happen. Omar Khan should, can, and will set things up for an almost pure BPA approach.
THE PICKS
Round 1 – OG/C/T Will Campbell, LSU
Yep. Three years in a row. Why? Because Will Campbell is the most special talent still on the board. Don’t take my word for it. This goes to the scouting profile by Brandon Thorn, the No. 1 amateur expert on offensive linemen. “Campbell… has the makeup, movement skills, play strength, and competitive toughness to make a smooth transition [from college tackle] to guard or center, and be an impact starter with Pro Bowl potential during his rookie contract… Pro Comparison: David DeCastro.”
Many analysts still think that Campbell can succeed in the NFL at tackle, and he won’t be here if teams agree. But if he really is a guard, even a great guard, the fall to 1:21 isn’t hard to envision.
Mason McCormick impressed the heck out of me in 2024. Isaac Seumalo had a down year, but will no doubt make the team even if it’s only as a steady veteran to help the youngsters grow into their powers. Neither needs to go…but neither is great. Omar Khan will think about it twice, and maybe even three times. He knows the salary cap benefits of Round 1 picks at high-cost positions better than anyone, and guards are not a high-cost position. But come on. Really? You want a great OL and you’re going to pass on the next DeCastro? A DeCastro with the flexibility to be emergency depth at all five positions?
I think not. It will also act as insurance in case Broderick Jones continues to struggle, which we saw in the years when Alan Faneca and DeCastro carried their OL teammates at the glory positions.
Too bad I couldn’t project this big a fall for RB Ashton Jeanty. That would really yank some chains around here. Maybe next time.
Round 2 – DT Darius Alexander, Toledo (RS Senior). 6-3⅝, 304 pounds with 34-inch arms and 10¼-inch hands.
Remember, the free agency moves included a starting-caliber DT who will solidify the roster for the next two-to-four years. That reduces the urgency, but there is still plenty of room for Khan and Andy Weidl to hit the trenches yet again for a longer-term investment. Darius Alexander is exactly that.
Add two inches of height and you’d have the perfect prototype of a Steelers DE. And you know what? With arms that long, who cares about the height? Especially for a certified Feldman Freak, a long-levered, dominating run stuffer who also has a lot of untapped potential? This goes to a Vikings-oriented scouting profile from January, which calls Alexander “a bona fide run defender and one of the best in the 2025 NFL Draft class. He is constantly clogging running lanes, redirecting plays, and getting his hands on ball carriers.”
The Draft Network scouting profile evokes for this old fan an image I’ll never forget scouting: a Dick LeBeau 5-tech. Remember those model 2-gappers like Aaron Smith who can stand their ground, bench press two OLs, and then shed them to make the tackle? That’s Alexander. The drawback is pass rush. “He’s strong as a quick, lateral mover, which allows him to [use a few techniques very well]…but what I don’t see consistently from Alexander is a motor in the passing game. His profile—athletic ability and power—suggests he should be a more tenacious pass rusher and more disruptive on a regular basis. This theme of taking plays off showed up too often for my liking.” This goes to a solid, Giants-oriented scouting profile that extols Alexander’s ability to shed blocks, and this to a Chiefs-oriented profile that recognizes Alfred Collins as a good NFL comp.
So why does the young Mr. Alexander fall to Round 2? First, his need to develop that pass rush. And second, level of competition. In this mock they will be enough to bring him into the Steelers’ Round 2 grasp.
Round 3 – RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State (Senior). 5-10, 210 pounds Born Oct. 22, 2022 (22 years old).
The street-level speculation says that Pittsburgh is looking for some extra juice to replace Najee Harris’ wonderful but limited between-the-tackles violence. Enter the 1B RB from the national-champion Buckeyes.
You want home runs? As a true freshman, TreVeyon Henderson set the Ohio State record for most yards in a single game. Ohio Friggin State! He’s got speed, vision, elusiveness, patience, and the overall athleticism to deserve Round 2 consideration. I expect him to fall into the mid-3rd. because (a) the 2025 class is incredibly deep at RB, and (b) he was limited by nagging injuries throughout his college career.
One worries about how many games a year he’ll miss due to NFL-level violence and physicality. But if you want some big-play lightning to balance Jaylen Warren, this is about as good as you’re going to get.
Round 4 – QB Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (Senior). 6-1⅞, 226 pounds with 9½-inch hands. Born May 13, 2003 (21 years old).
There would have been no way to avoid a WR here before free agency, but with the new addition via free agency, Roman Wilson’s return, and Arthur Smith’s offensive scheme I now feel comfortable. The danger is George Pickens’ willingness to cut the throat of his own future with off-field antics, but I’m willing to assume he’ll be willing to bet on himself. A big 2025 would earn him tens of millions, which is much more than he’d get from an early extension.
So, I’m going to look at a different hole. QB depth.
There are some prospects who appeal beyond all the measurable factors, and Jaxson Dart is one of them. This is a tough, tough kid with very good size who played through painful injuries without a blink. He’s got the “it” factor, too, which I particularly value at this position. Alas, his actual film doesn’t live up to that. As summarized in Alex Kozora’s Depot scouting report, “He’s just not great in any area besides his toughness. His biggest issue is a lack of timing on throws. Dart needs to speed up his process and he’s often too late, allowing contested situations with the DB closing on his target… Dart does a lot of things well… But there aren’t a lot of things he does great…Everything about his game is Bs, not As.”
Yeah, okay, I get it. But you know what? [Pouts out lower lip] I don’t care. This is the sort of young man who will make your team better even if he’s only a backup. Gardner Minshew II 2.0 would be one hell of a Day 3 pick.
N.B. No, I don’t think he’ll be available in Round 4 in real life. QBs get underdrafted, and this would instead require a fall from his legitimate Round 3 grade. But I don’t yet know the Round 4 talent well enough to make a more informed/realistic choice, and I wanted to get my two cents in on the importance of pure intangibles at the QB position.
Round 5 – CB Justin Walley, Minnesota (Senior). 5-11, 195 pounds Born Sep. 22, 2002 (22 years old).
Walley played on the outside in college but may profile better as a slot CB. The Bleacher Report scouting profile paints a good picture: “Justin Walley is a competitive and aggressive cornerback from Minnesota, whose game is defined by his tenacity and ability to stick with receivers in the short and intermediate areas of the field.” He’s also an effective puzzle piece in run support, has a high football and skills IQ, and has excellent ball skills. The missing piece of the puzzle is long speed. Speedsters can lose him deep. That makes him a role player, but here in Round 5 this kind of role player would be a heck of a find.
Round 7.A, 7.B, and 7.C – OMITTED
One has to know one’s limits, and I passed them a round or two ago. No Round 7 picks from me this early in the process.
CONCLUSION
This mock does not look remotely like what I would propose if the draft was tomorrow. That’s because I want to come out of the gate by emphasizing how much the team’s wants and needs are going to change with free agency. Pittsburgh is going to have $40-50 million of cap space to play with! Which means the team can, should, and almost certainly will be heavily in the market for established veterans to fill the obvious holes you probably came to this mock expecting.
Tone down the free agency names if you want. In my heart of hearts, I already have. But do not believe the team will go into the 2025 draft with mandatory positions that need to be addressed. One way or another, Khan & Co. will get this roster into a position where he can draft from an almost pure BPA point of view. Assume that, and this suddenly looks like a great result.
- FREE AGENCY: Arguable WR1 like Christian Kirk, the aging Davante Adams, or Amari Cooper; or some strong WR2 like Darius Slayton
- FREE AGENCY: Solid DT starter such as B.J. Hill to replace Larry Ogunjobi
- FREE AGENCY: Mid-level CB comparable to Donte Jackson
- FREE AGENCY: QB Justin Fields and a cheap veteran backup
- 1:21: IOL Will Campbell, LSU
- 2:22: DL Darius Alexander, Toledo
- 3:21: RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State
- 4:22: QB Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
- 5:21: CB Justin Walley, Minnesota
- 7:A: WR Your Guess
- 7:B: OT Is As-Good
- 7:C: BARGAIN As Mine
