If debates are being had about whether a team’s biggest problem is the head coach or the starting quarterback, chances are pretty good that the team is in a rough place. That’s exactly the conversation that took place on ESPN’s First Take this morning as the panel debated Mike Tomlin’s future in Pittsburgh.
After being extended for three more years in June, Tomlin was the star of the 2024 season and one of the leading Coach of the Year candidates until the final month when the Steelers went on a four-game losing streak. Staring down the barrel of another one-and-done playoff appearance, Tomlin’s future with the team has been one of the big talking points this week in the media.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky doesn’t understand the concept of moving on from Tomlin.
“I think it’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard in the NFL this season that the Steelers should entertain moving on from Mike Tomlin,” Orlovsky said Thursday via First Take. “If we had to look at the last, let’s call it, six or eight years of Mike Tomlin’s run with the Steelers — really ever since Ben [Roethlisberger] got old and they had to figure out the quarterback position — have they exceeded expectations in Pittsburgh? Realistic ones?”
That point is hotly contested among fans and writers who cover the team alike. What have been realistic expectations? It’s one thing to say that the standard is always winning a Super Bowl in Pittsburgh, but that is clearly not realistic. Other than a few dynasties here and there, very few teams have been able to win more than a Super Bowl or two over a decade.
Were the Steelers really going to win Super Bowls with late-career Roethlisberger? Once Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell left, that window started to close.
Was there any chance with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, or Mitch Trubisky for two seasons? You are kidding yourself if you say yes.
Other than brief pockets of good play with Rudolph in 2023 and Russell Wilson this year, the Steelers haven’t had anything resembling good quarterback play since before Roethlisberger’s season-ending elbow injury in 2019.
Roethlisberger had a 7.04 adjusted net yards per passing attempt (ANY/A) figure in 2018 and no Steelers QB has even sniffed such efficiency since. Wilson was on pace for much higher earlier in the season but has since crashed back down to 6.39. Roethlisberger’s 7.04 in 2018 would rank 10th in the 2024 season, for comparison, and the league average is 6.13.
It’s hard to compete in the playoffs without a top-10 quarterback, let alone quarterbacks who are struggling to even be league average. Here is every QB’s ANY/A since the Steelers’ last playoff win in 2016:
– 2017: 6.95 (Roethlisberger)
– 2018: 7.04 (Roethlisberger)
– 2019: 5.02 (Rudolph)
– 2020: 6.27 (Roethlisberger)
– 2021: 5.43 (Roethlisberger)
– 2022: 4.70 (Pickett)
– 2023: 5.29 (Pickett)
– 2024: 6.39 (Wilson)
“The reality is, you don’t have a Mike Tomlin problem,” Orlovsky said. “In 12 out of his 18 seasons, he’s exceeded the expected preseason win totals. But it’s you haven’t had a quarterback. The reality is the Steelers have failed Mike Tomlin not getting him a quarterback way more than Mike Tomlin has failed the Steelers.”
Wilson’s ANY/A is technically the best among Steelers QBs since 2018, and I think most would agree that he hasn’t been good enough lately.
An argument could be made that Tomlin is responsible for the conservative game plan on offense, and the lack of strong offensive coordinators on his staff. But at a certain point, the quarterback talent just hasn’t been there for this team in years.
Just look at Bill Belichick, whom many call the best coach of all time, in his couple seasons without Tom Brady.
Tomlin has to share in the blame. He is the leader, so that comes with the job. But until the Steelers get him a viable quarterback, the expectation can’t be to compete for Super Bowls.
