The Pittsburgh Steelers are prepping for their season finale, trying to right a three-game losing streak against the surging Cincinnati Bengals who have won their last four games on Saturday night.
Among Pittsburgh’s issues have been slow starts on offense, including opening drives. Today I wanted to look at and provide data context to this, and compare their marks around the league. Here’s a link to a similar study on Pittsburgh’s opening drive stats through Week 10 I’ll reference to see season trends.
To start, here are offenses opening drive average number of plays and yards per game:
Right away we see that the Steelers offense has been below the mean in average plays and yards on opening drives. Pittsburgh ranks 23rd with 6.0 average number of plays, and 23.8-yards ranks 28th (fifth-worst). This is even worse than the first ten weeks of 2024, when they averaged 7.1 plays per opening drive and 29.8-yards (20th), so a clear downtrend that has included a discouraging three-and-out issue as well.
That has negatively impacted their recent skid in the win column, getting behind against a tougher schedule of largely postseason teams, and a smaller window for error that has backfired in their face. If Pittsburgh wants to make noise the rest of the way, coming out of the gates strong could certainly aid those hopes.
Their next opponent, Cincinnati, are comfortably above the mean in each, with 7.5 plays per opening drive. That’s second best, only to the Chiefs (8.6), who won handily against Pittsburgh in their last outing, and included them getting up on the scoreboard early. Both are top three in yards as well, and if Pittsburgh gets down early once again, it could spell trouble against the Bengals potent offense.
Next, let’s look at the outcomes of these drives more with scoring and turnover rates:
Here we see Pittsburgh’s turnover number is their above average rate, tying for fifth with several other teams. Their 37.5-percent scoring rate is below the mean though, tying for 16th. Both fare better than the previous view, but have down trended since Week 10, when the Steelers were comfortably above the mean in each: no turnovers, 55.6-percent scoring rate (T-seventh).
While there is much more football to play after opening drives, it could set an optimal early script for the Steelers, who would be wise to use every possible advantage to their disposal, as opposed to Mike Tomlin often downplaying the importance of starting slow. Yes, finishing games is most important, but you have to be in the fight as opposed to multi-possession losses that have occurred the last three games.
Case and point are Cincinnati, who are an above the mean scoring offense on opening drives, so hopefully we see Pittsburgh come out swinging again an offense that is more likely than not to do so themselves.
Diving deeper, here are rates that zoom in on offensive production (removing field goals), touchdown and offensive turnover rates (interceptions and fumbles):
This is where the excruciating painful fact arises. Pittsburgh hasn’t had an opening drive touchdown in the entire 2024 season. When they have scored, it’s been at the leg of Chris Boswell, who’s having a great year. Considering everything so far, Pittsburgh’s first opening drive TD would be fantastic to see in the finale, and a hopeful carry over into the postseason.
This would also bode well against a Bengals defense that has been playing better as of late, along with rolling with the punches that Cincinnati’s sixth ranked total scoring offense will likely present. That’s how things shook out in the first matchup, with Pittsburgh able to rise to that challenge in the Week 13 44-38 win. 40-percent of their first drives this year have been TDs, which is a scary fourth-best in the league.
On the other side of the coin, let’s briefly examine the opening drives that sputtered on offense, and ended in kicks (field goals or punts). I sorted lower numbers as good, since offensive touchdowns are the ultimate goal:
As you probably expected from the previous view, Pittsburgh has one of the highest field goal rates on opening drives at 37.5-percent, tying for the most in the league with Dallas. While it’s encouraging in a way to come away with some semblance of points early, we also see that the Steelers have been forced to punt too often as well. That 50-percent rate ties for 20th. So they don’t score TDs, and half the time come away with nothing.
Any given Sunday though, and here’s to hoping the Steelers offense bucks these trends on Saturday. Cincinnati is above the mean in each once again, punting 40-percent of the time (13th) and just 6.7 of their opening drives have ended in field goals (sixth-least). So, they are one of the best offenses in the NFL at coming out strong with seven points. Sheds light to the extreme importance of the stat for Pittsburgh to be on the right side of, in hopes of the season sweep in my opinion.
Let’s examine defenses now. Here are number of plays and average yards allowed, with lower numbers being good:
Clearly a brighter picture painted here for the Steelers defense. They have trended positively since Week 10 when they were an average unit, to now being comfortably above the mean.
Limiting opposing offenses to just 5.6 plays ties for seventh-best, and 26.8-yards ranks even better at sixth. That is encouraging to see with everything we now know about Cincinnati’s offense, and brings optimism to how the finale might transpire. We have seen Pittsburgh’s defense down trend in several regards though, so hopefully they come out with laser focus, putting recent communication snafues and other issues to bed.
The Bengals defense has been well below average in each, allowing 7.6 plays per drive (28th) and 44.9-yards (30th). On paper, that clearly bodes well for Pittsburgh’s offense, and hope they come out with a strong opening script unlike many stale ones we’ve seen in 2024. Execution is also a big factor, hopefully seeing a very clean start that carries through the game, as opposed to many mistakes and shots in the foot we’ve seen of late.
Here are defenses scoring and turnover rates:
Things get more bleak for Pittsburgh’s defense here, as a below the mean unit in each. They have allowed a 43.8 opening drive scoring rate (T-20th) and 6.3 turnover rate ties with several teams for 16th. This has improved since Week 10 as well though, when they had no turnovers and allowed a 55.6 scoring rate (T-27th). Knock on wood that continues to trend well.
The Bengals defense has fared better in turnover rate, at 12.5-percent, which ties for eighth-best in the league. So that’s a pessimistic side to a hopefully positive trend for Pittsburgh’s offense. Cincinnati has allowed a 50-percent scoring rate on opening drives, tying for 25th in the NFL. Lines up well for the Steelers offense to post their first opening drive touchdown, optimistically.
Now I’ll remove field goals, to see how defenses fared in touchdowns allowed:
Encouragingly, we see Pittsburgh’s 18.8-percent touchdown rate allowed moves to an above average mark, tying four seventh-best. So, this means that while they’ve allowed scoring to the opposition more than desired, it’s been a hold them to a field goal story overall.
Every possession the defense can keep them off the scoreboard would aid a more likely victory, as opposed to allowing 38 points in the first matchup. That would also put less on the Steelers offense, who’ve scored 17 or less in each of their last three losses.
Cincinnati has allowed a 31.3-percent TD rate (T-24th), so that aligns to the hope of Pittsburgh finally starting fast with an opening drive touchdown, which could allow them to get the upper hand early and play to their liking.
And the other side of the coin, and ultimate defensive goal, getting stops. Here are punt and field goal rates:
Back to a rosier picture, thankfully. Pittsburgh’s defense is above the mean in each, forcing a 50.0-percent punt rate (T-eighth) and 25.0-percent field goal rate (T-fourth). Being top-ten in both on the season points to some strengths in 2024 that will ideally reoccur in the finale, and Pittsburgh ending the year with a high note victory as a launchpad to the postseason.
The Bengals defense hasn’t been able to get opposing offenses off the field overall, with a low 31.3-percent punt rate (T-25th), and have allowed an 18.8-percent FG percentage (T-seventh). While any points are obviously positive, you can tell more points right out of the gates and keeping Cincinnati of the scoreboard is very high on my radar for a fingers-crossed Steelers victory.
To wrap up, here is a table of all the stat ranks (by season) compiled for the study:
