Today, I wanted to look at and provide data on the ultimate stat that determines success, points per game (Pts/G) across the NFL in the 2024 regular season. There are obviously so many factors that go into being a strong team that puts up points. Here are some recent studies that dive into strengths and weaknesses, focusing on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
ANY/A Stats: 2024 Regular Season Rankings
2024 Regular Season Explosive Vs. Adjusted Explosive Plays
2024 Regular Season Cumulative ANY/A, TOX, Successful Run Rates
2024 REGULAR SEASON: TOX VS. ATOX
These data points are some of the best at predicting the NFL’s best, and how those squads separate themselves at the top of the league. On the following Pts/G visual, several were stellar in linked articles on offense and/or defense, and illustrating postseason teams with darker logos is extremely telling.
Right away, we see some of the best teams in the NFL were comfortably above average on both sides of the ball. 10-of-14 playoff offenses were above average in Pts/G in the regular season. What may surprise are more defenses being at or above the line (13-of-14), including Pittsburgh, and the only exception being Washington by a tenth of a point. While it’s become an offensive focused league, defenses still win championships.
Several things derailed for the Steelers to end the 2024 season, but the defense still ended the year with a top ten 20.4 Pts/G number that ranked eighth. There were encouraging steps for Pittsburgh’s offense on the scoreboard compared to 2023, when they had 17.9 Pts/G (T-27th). This year, that number was much better at 22.4 which ended up at 16th, but down trended in the four-game losing streak and in the 28-14 Wild Card loss to Baltimore.
While that’s unfortunate and inexcusable, recency bias has many forgetting some good times for the 2024 Steelers offense. Here’s a weekly Pts/G visual:
First, let’s look at Pittsburgh’s games that were above the 22.9 league average in the regular season. 7-of-17 games fit that description (41.2-percent), not an ideal frequency, but resulted in a 6-1 record. Two occurred in the first six games, when Justin Fields was the starting QB, including the loss, 27-24 vs. the Colts Week Four. That means Russell Wilson went 5-0 in games when the offense was above average in Pts/G.
Here’s that list of wins:
Week Seven vs. NYJ – 37-15
Week Eight vs. NYG – 26-18
Week Ten vs. WAS – 28-27
Week 13 vs. CIN – 44-38
Week 14 vs. CLE – 27-14
Three opponents simply weren’t good teams in 2024 overall, with the Commanders and Bengals victories deserving more props. The former was a close win against a team still in the playoff dance, then keeping up with the potent Cincinnati offense, impressively. Those 44 points were much needed in that shootout, a season-high for Pittsburgh, and tied for 11th-most across the entire 2024 regular season.
Three playoff teams had multiple showings that were better. Detroit had two 52-point outings that tied themselves for the NFL’s best, along with a 47-point day. Buffalo had two top ten marks at 48 and 47 points, and Tampa Bay put up 51 and 48 in the 2024 regular season.
Unfortunately, 10-of-17 games were below the line for Pittsburgh (58.8-percent). A staggering amount came to start the year, and even though the Steelers had a 4-2 record with Fields through Week Six, four of those performances had below average Pts/G on offense with just one loss.
There was also a two-game lull to start their stretch of four AFC North in Weeks 11 and 12, including an 18-16 win on Baltimore, but a wretched 24-19 loss in Cleveland. That was a painful one to stomach, but the Steelers turned it around for two divisional wins (with above average Pts/G).
Then came the end of the year unraveling. As you’d probably guessed, the offense was well below average in scoring points in the four-game losing streak:
Week 15 vs. PHI – 27-13
Week 16 vs. BAL – 34-17
Week 17 vs. KC – 29-10
Week 18 vs. CIN – 19-17
Yes, the quality of competition is stronger than the list earlier. But being able to step up to the challenge is what the best of the best are able to do, and Pittsburgh failed in sinking fashion with no more than 17 points in heading into the playoffs.
We also see the defense deserves blame as well, but did close well in the finale against Cincinnati’s strong offense, who were the only non-playoff team Pittsburgh faced the last four weeks.
Perfect time to transition to the weekly defensive chart:
A tale of two defenses, with just one below the line game prior to the Week Nine bye in a loss to Indianapolis. Held opponents to below average Pts/G 88.9-percent in these games, when Pittsburgh was 6-2.
Post-bye, 6-of-9 games were below-average, with a 2-4 record and just 33.3-percent were limited on the scoreboard compared to league average. Clear impact in the Steelers demise. With the teams reliance on turnover culture that waned overall late in the season, the results on the scoreboard severely impacted the win column.
While that is an impactful element of the game, it can be unpredictable at times, which Pittsburgh found less luck in later in 2024. Compounding this was the offense not taking care of the ball as well. This begs the question of tweaking the model, like more potency on offensive side of the ball, hopefully balancing to the overall stronger defensive unit next season.
While things could have been worse, this would go a long way in finally getting a more desirable result, namely their first playoff win since 2016. High on my radar are stronger starts that included no first drive TDs in 2024, which has also been a huge issue in the playoffs. Digging these holes early puts pressure on the entire team, and puts the opposition in the driver’s seat, which the NFLs best capitalize on more often than not.
My second priority for Pittsburgh is improving in the red zone, after ranking 29th offensively in the stat this season. Huge for the all-important Pts/G stat we’re discussing obviously, and if that was even an average mark, would have balanced the team to where the defense wasn’t as gassed and negatively impacted their quality of play.
Pittsburgh’s defense was one of the best red zone units early in 2024, but waned post-bye and ended the year with a 13th rank. This of course impacted the totally different defense we saw, and not in a good way. The Steelers did have encouraging moments that got them to the dance, which hopefully carry over to 2025, but there are clear areas in my opinion that would get them over the top next season.
Stability in the Steelers way has them consistently with a winning record by seasons end for nearly two decades under HC Mike Tomlin. But a need to shake up philosophy and identity a bit is in order in hopes of catching the NFLs elite teams. Not an overhaul, but leaning more into important stats as they do with turnovers and takeaways would be wise.
Namely being strong in ANY/A which is most predictive to Super Bowl aspirations would top my list, and aiding Pittsburgh sitting prettier on the scoreboard in 2025.
To close, here are NFL point differentials for the 2024 regular season:
The top 11 teams in point differentials all made the playoffs. Cincinnati just missed out, landing 12th, right above Pittsburgh at a plus-2 differential (13th). So, above-average, but considering 14 teams punch their ticket in the playoffs, we get context to why their exit came early.
All four teams the Steelers fell to in the four-game losing streak had better point differentials this season, adding more context to the struggles, while not meant to excuse those performances either. 13-of-14 postseason squads had a positive point differential in 2024, and here’s to hoping Pittsburgh’s lands stronger next year in the all-important stat.
