As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 14 game against the Cleveland Browns.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Take Advantage Of Game Circumstance
On paper, the schedule makes me feel less nervous than before. In Week 12, the Steelers were the road team on a short week coming off an emotionally charged win over the Baltimore Ravens. Now, the Browns are the road team and on a short week coming off Monday night’s road loss to the Denver Broncos. I don’t think they’ll be as hurt by that given how familiar these two teams are and how recently that played.
Still, Pittsburgh’s circumstances feel more solvable than before. And that works in their favor provided they can take advantage of those facts.
2. They Deploy A Smarter Run Scheme
The biggest issue I had in the Week 12 loss was the team’s horrid run scheme. Too simple, too repeated, especially in short-yardage moments. Gap schemes became less effective throughout and they couldn’t block the backside linebacker, asking out-leveraged linemen to make impossible blocks.
Pittsburgh should be running up the middle more often with their inside zone/duo and trust the interior line to get a push. Overall, OC Arthur Smith needs to show a better game plan and a longer week, to bounce off the above point, will give him time to put something stronger together.
3. George Pickens Keeps His Cool
Everyone’s talking about it but it’s so-obviously important. Browns’ DBs will try to needle him early. They already are. I’m sure Tomlin and the coaching staff have harped on it all week. Pickens, stay calm and don’t take the Browns’ bait. Saying and doing are two different things and Pickens will be tested from the word go. But it’s critical to his and this offense’s success.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Run Game Negativity Continues
I know I mentioned run game above but this is a separate point and it’s so important to the team’s success. One data point I just looked up yesterday I wanted to share. In the Week 12 loss to the Browns, the Steelers had a whopping 13 runs (excluding kneeldowns) that gained zero or lost yards. That is the most of any team in a single game this season. Not a number Pittsburgh can afford to replicate.
A smarter game plan like outlined in the “win” section is key but no matter the scheme, the Steelers can’t keep stacking up these negative plays and expect to stay on schedule, convert on third down, and score.
2. Winston Wins The Cup
Stretching a Winston Cup reference? Almost certainly. But to the point, Browns QB Jameis Winston is the most up-and-down quarterback you’re ever going to say. Huge arm talent and shades of brilliance. Moments where he looks like a train wreck. Last week’s 497-yard, four touchdown, three interception performance against Denver says it all. Gotta capitalize on the chances and not let him make the big-time throws he’s capable of.
3. Offense Can’t Find Its Groove
And I mean that in a specific sense. The Browns counter the Steelers’ pass-game strengths well. Talented and competitive corners. And the presence of Myles Garrett takes away Pittsburgh’s play-action and bootleg game, two staple parts of their offense. Against Cleveland, Russell Wilson ran only two bootlegs, one of which came when Garrett was subbed off the field. Of course, throwing vertically and taking deeper drops and needing more time when you’re dealing with Garrett is challenging.
If Pittsburgh’s passing game can’t play a little left-handed, relying more on the quick-game than what they ideally want to (or have some great approaches to do the things they like), Wilson could have a tougher time.
3a. Special Teams Continue To Slide
Bonus one. Wanted to mention special teams that haven’t been as special in Pittsburgh the last few weeks. Last time, P Corliss Waitman’s 15-yard shank in the snow was a crusher. But the Steelers have also had a field goal blocked and the kick coverage unit was weak against the Bengals. Need to get back to dominance here to win in all three phases.
Prediction
Steelers: 26
Browns: 16
Season Prediction Record
5-7
(This is terrible, I understand)
