Player: OLB T.J. Watt
Stock Value: Up
Reasoning: Coming off another impact game, T.J. Watt received a good injury update yesterday. Working through a low-ankle sprain, he could play as early as this Saturday against the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers would lock up the AFC North crown with a win, so having Watt available is extremely important.
Don’t look now, but T.J. Watt is closing in on the league lead in sacks. After another multi-sack game, he now has 11.5 this season. That marks the sixth season of double-digit sacks for Watt, the most in Steelers history. Additionally, he has six forced fumbles on the year, the most in the league. That gives him 33 for his career, one off Greg Lloyd’s team-record (unofficial) 34.
Unfortunately, Watt also ended the game with an ankle injury on top of the forced fumble and sacks. But the good news is that the injury is not as serious as it could have been. In fact, Steelers HC Mike Tomlin expressed optimism that Watt could even play six days after the injury.
All things considered, the Steelers couldn’t have hoped for much more. They play the Ravens on Saturday with the chance to win their first AFC North since 2020. T.J. Watt has a history of momentum-swinging plays in that series, so they certainly want him out there.
The Steelers are also terrible when he isn’t playing. Since drafting T.J. Watt in 2017, they are something like 1-10 without him. They are better equipped now than ever before to play without him with Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, and Preston Smith. But you always opt to have Watt on the field if you have the choice.
Through 14 games, Watt has 11.5 sacks, 54 tackles, 18 tackles for loss, 27 quarterback hits, and six forced fumbles. He leads the NFL in forced fumbles and tackles for loss and is tied for third in sacks. He trails Trey Hendrickson by just one sack, Danielle Hunter half a sack ahead of him.
T.J. Watt has led the NFL in sacks in the past three years in which he has been healthy. He totaled 19 sacks just last year, and 22.5 in 2021, tying an NFL single-season record. It’s only by comparison to his own greatness that his 11.5 sacks and counting look unremarkable this year.
As the season progresses, Steelers players’ stocks rise and fall. The nature of the evaluation differs with the time of year, with in-season considerations being more often short-term. Considerations in the offseason often have broader implications, particularly when players lose their jobs, or the team signs someone. This time of year is full of transactions, whether minor or major.
A bad game, a new contract, an injury, a promotion—any number of things affect a player’s value. Think of it as a stock on the market, based on speculation. You’ll feel better about a player after a good game, or worse after a bad one. Some stock updates are minor, while others are likely to be quite drastic, so bear in mind the degree. I’ll do my best to explain the nature of that in the reasoning section of each column.
