The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently on an unfortunate three-game skid and come off an ugly loss to the 16-1 Kansas City Chiefs, 29-10.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with bats at the line of scrimmage. Two throwaways and bats were removed.
QB Russell Wilson went 23 of 37 on the stat sheet (62.2 percent), and 69.7 on charted passes. Usually much better with removed passes, highlighting an issue of not getting rid of the football on time, facing a season-high 20 pressures and five sacks. One included a fumble on a first drive three-and-out in yet another slow start (no TDs on opening drives in 2024). Wilson also had a costly red zone interception late first quarter.
The offensive line clearly struggled against a good defense, and there were other supporting cast issues as well, including a fumble turnover, a drop, and several Grinch moments. On the afternoon, Wilson had 205 passing yards and no passing TDs. Just one highlight throw, not nearly enough against a Chiefs caliber team and behind most of the game. A rare bright spot was scrambling, six for 55 yards including Pittsburgh’s lone TD.
Red zone was an overall bugaboo, though: Pittsburgh 1-of-4, KC going 4-of-5. The Steelers won the third down battle against the Chiefs’ top ranked unit going into the matchup, surprisingly: Steelers 8-16 (several Wilson runs), Chiefs 3-10. The latter stayed ahead of the chains, avoiding it overall, though. An undesirable 4th and 20 miss came after failing to get the snap off with the game on the line, and among the multitude of issues in the team loss.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 33 charted passes, with number of throws at each pass distance for Week 17:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 45.5 percent. Whopping 15 passes. First play was promising, a seven-yard slot out to TE Pat Freiermuth who was most targeted, adding a bit of YAC too. But a short run and Wilson sack fumble derailed the three-and-out start.
Second and 6 on drive four. Another slot out, this time to WR George Pickens, just enough to move the chains. These successful plays included rub concepts to open receivers, refreshingly, but KC did well to not allow big YAC. Then TE Darnell Washington ran a sit route over the middle, adding churning YAC for eight yards on first down.
On drive five in the second quarter, an over the middle dump-off to RB Jaylen Warren at one air yard, getting YAC and seven yards on off coverage. Ensuing runs including a 3rd and 3 east/west fail with RB Cordarrelle Patterson was a questionable choice.
A fourth down KC penalty extended the drive, though. Back to another slot out to Pickens that was stood up at two yards on 2nd and 11, debatably whistled dead too soon. My takeaway is Pittsburgh running the same plays too often allowing defenses to key in.
Just before halftime, you guessed it, another slot out rub to Freiermuth that was tackled quick for only two yards. Third quarter, Freiermuth runs a stick on the 3×1 stacked side, getting a bit of space and YAC for six yards where two defenders met him.
Next drive early fourth quarter, Wilson faces 3rd and 14 after painful plays: incomplete (held it), near interception (incomplete), and sack (T Dan Moore beat bad). Hits Freiermuth well short of the chains in the flat at three air yards, but an agonizing fumble turnover adds insult to injury to the ultimate fail, down 22-10.
Next drive after KC scores (29-10), an 2nd and 1 over the middle dump to Warren for nine yards after a run for the same yardage with the Chiefs in prevent defense mode. True for the next slat to Freiermuth, but quick react for no YAC on the five-yard gain.
Same drive got behind the chains on an offsides (TE Connor Heyward), negating an awesome Pickens catch. Ensuing 2nd and 15 was covered well, Wilson going through his progressions, a throw away-ish crosser low and ahead to WR Van Jefferson incomplete. This proceeded the rough stretch eventual 4th and 20 fail with the game on the line.
Third and 2 with 6:09 left. Wilson’s throw is high to RB Najee Harris on the right sideline, sailing incomplete. On 4th and 2, HC Mike Tomlin decides to punt. I get the circumstances were dire, but deflating to see the white flag. “Never give up, never surrender!” You just went for 4th and 20 to boot, I don’t get it.
Game at hand. After runs, WR Calvin Austin got his turn at a slot out, gaining eight yards on prevent coverage. Third and 2 with 22 seconds left, Warren got the checkdown for a three-yard conversion. An illegal shift (WR Scotty Miller) ends the game, fitting in such a gruesome loss.
#2. Behind-the-Line: 18.2 percent. Six examples. Mid-second quarter, a first down screen to Austin goes for a loss of two, not his game lacking missed tackle ability. Third quarter 2 and 16 following a sack (Washington), dump-off to Harris with space, but poor vision and stumble on a two-yard gain.
Later on during the same encouraging drive, back to Harris on a red zone screen for five yards, replacing Warren who got them there. Confusing to not feed him after an explosive 21-yard gain (unless he was gassed). Then a 3rd and 5 sack was a huge and stalled the drive, settling for the field goal and a 16-10 score. May not have mattered, but man.
Down 22-10 next drive (fourth quarter). Began with Wilson facing good coverage on his first read, checking down to Harris near the sideline. But a dangerous near pick throw, thankfully only a pass breakup. This was followed by another sack (Moore beat bad), and the third down Freiermuth fumble.
On the 4th and 20 fail drive, a 2nd and 5 leak-out throw to Warren was limited to one yard (poor Freiermuth block), but Wilson extended the drive the following 3 and 4 scramble conversion, just to have the wheels soar off. A play leading up to that was a behind the line checkdown to Warren, dropping Wilson’s pass with blanketed short routes elsewhere.
T-3rd. 5-10 air-yards: 15.2 percent. Five throws. Yet to be mentioned was a 3rd and 8, a nice seam route from Freiermuth and back-shoulder throw away from the linebacker with YAC to the red zone for 15 yards. Big play on the lone touchdown drive and it’s a 13-7 score early second quarter, before hope was lost.
The rest were garbage time. On a scramble drill (T Broderick Jones pressure), Wilson found Pickens on the sideline on a comeback (from a slant), a near fantastic one-hander on the sideline but unable to come away with it incomplete.
Just before the two-minute warning, Heyward runs a slot stick for eight yards, falling on the catch. After several runs, a bi-polar decision to pass on first down. Run the clock or try to score, make up your mind. Nice catch though, an impressive toe-tap just in bounds by Austin.
T-3rd. Explosive (20-plus air-yards): 15.2 percent. Five also. Start of drive three, Wilson play-actions and launches a beautiful go ball to Pickens, who made an insane over the shoulder late pluck at 30 air yards, and YAC on top for the double-explosive 41-yarder. This came with KC up 13-0, a nice answer play.
The rest was bad news, though. The drive ensued with a negated Warren touchdown (Washington hold), then Wilson threw inaccurately to Freiermuth in double coverage for a horrendous red zone interception. Asinine decision and execution, ugh.
Late second quarter, it’s 3rd and 9. Wilson wants WR Mike Williams on the go-ball, going to him despite the safety getting there easily for the pass breakup. Another poor throw and decision on the failed punt drive.
Just before half, back to Williams on a good deep decision this time. Close but no cigar incompletion, getting one foot down twice but not the second. Instead of potential points, Pittsburgh runs on the final play to head to the locker room down 13-7. Hindsight’s 20-20, but man, so man missed opportunities.
The only second half air yardage past 20 yards was on the aforementioned 4th and 20 fail, inexcusably. I know KC was in prevent much of the time, but that is excruciating to write. The actual go-ball throw had a shot, and was to the right man in Pickens, but unfortunately was broken up after hitting his hands on a better play by the defense once again. Depressing.
#5. 10-15 air-yards: 12.1 percent. Four plays. Not mentioned yet was early (second drive). Following a sack (Wilson had time, late throwaway attempt), it’s 3rd and 18. Wilson’s throw is well over the head of Pickens, who ran a corner route and also tripped at the break point on the incomplete pass and second failed drive in a row.
Early second quarter, Wilson play-actions to a nice throw and catch on an intermediate out by Freiermuth for the gain of 15, nice design. This was the first of two 15 yarders from Muth on the lone TD drive. Also encouraging was a 3rd and 14 third quarter. A great throw and corner route by Austin, getting space to gain just enough for the third and long conversion.
Successful pass distance, including most of their third down passing conversions, why not target the area more? Another blunder.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: 6.1 percent. Two examples, both at 20 air yards in the explosive section: the unfortunate red zone interception and Williams one-foot down incompletion.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
KC kept a lid on things, and deserves credit. But the multitude of passes at five air yards or less was inexcusable given the game circumstances. Some nice intermediate hits, but not nearly enough from Pittsburgh’s offense, and poor explosive air yards that’s been rare for Wilson in 2024.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 4/6 (66.7 percent).
0-5 air-yards: 13/15 (86.7 percent).
5-10 air-yards: 4/5 (80.0 percent).
10-15 air-yards: 3/4 (75.0 percent).
15-20 air-yards: 0/2 (0.0 percent).
Explosive: 1/5 (20.0 percent).
Only one completion past 15 yards. Much worse downfield results than most of the season, as well as behind the line. Good marks 0-15 yards.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 7/11 (63.6 percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 5/7 (71.4 percent).
Inside hashes: 4/4 (100 percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 1/1 (100 percent).
Outside right numbers: 6/10 (60.0 percent).
Least successful outside the numbers, discouraging in Pickens return. From the numbers, it was still Wilson’s best area. Higher frequency compared to the season inside the hashes, with a perfect rate, at seven air yards or less.
Now for the heat-maps for charted-passes, then completions only:
Yikes. This gives us a greater sense of the prior takeaways, stifled downfield with too few positives that wasn’t nearly enough against the best team in football. Better step it up in gameplan and execution for any optimism in the postseason.
Next, here’s Wilson and Fields’ 420 charted throws of the 2024 regular season:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 39.8 percent. Previously 39.3 percent. 2023 35.0 percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 24.8 percent. Previously 25.6 percent. 2023 23.8 percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: 16.2 percent. Previously 16.0 percent. 2023 18.5 percent.
#4. Explosive: 14.5 percent. Previously 14.5 percent. 2023 12.4 percent.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 9.5 percent. Previously 9.3 percent. 2023 13.0 percent.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 7.1 percent. Previously 7.2 percent. 2023 10.8 percent.
Same ranks. 0-5 expectedly increased the most with everything we’ve learned. Other up ticks were behind the line, and 10-15, slightly. The intermediate game has been far underutilized all season, re-emphasizing what teams are figuring out and making it easier to gameplan and execute on Pittsburgh’s offense, unfortunately. Explosives stood pat, and decreases were 5-10 and 15-20.
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 41/48 (85.4 percent).
0-5 air-yards: 81/102 (79.4 percent).
5-10 air-yards: 44/62 (71.0 percent).
10-15 air-yards: 16/24 (66.7 percent).
15-20 air-yards: 12/21 (57.1 percent).
Explosive: 21/39 (53.8 percent).
FIELDS:
Behind-the-line: 15/20 (75.0 percent).
0-5 air-yards: 57/65 (87.7 percent).
5-10 air-yards: 30/42 (71.4 percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/16 (50.0 percent).
15-20 air-yards: 5/9 (55.6 percent).
Explosive: 6/21 (28.6 percent).
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 49/80 (61.3 percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 52/60 (86.7 percent).
Inside hashes: 15/21 (71.4 percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 45/51 (88.2 percent).
Outside right numbers: 37/56 (66.1 percent).
FIELDS:
Outside left numbers: 35/53 (66.0 percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 14/20 (70.0 percent).
Inside hashes: 11/13 (84.6 percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 30/38 (78.9 percent).
Outside right numbers: 22/34 (64.7 percent).
To close, here are the dots along with heat maps for all charted attempts and completions only:
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
