As we’ve been doing for many years now, we’ll break down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opponent each week, telling you what to expect from a scheme and individual player standpoint. Like last year, Josh Carney and I will cover the opposing team’s offense. I will focus on the scheme, Josh on the players.
Today, our scouting report on the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense.
Alex’s Scheme Report
Chiefs’ Run Game
The Chiefs’ run game isn’t a strength this year, but they’ve gotten healthier with the return of RB Isiah Pacheco. On the year, they’re averaging just 4.0 YPC, 27th in football, and Pacheco hasn’t boosted those numbers at 3.8 yards per carry. He’s also not fully back to playing a high amount of snaps, between one-third and under 50 percent in his last three starts. He’s had between 9 and 14 rushing attempts in those games. Kareem Hunt is splitting time evenly with him, though he functions more like a pass-down back. He has 11 carries in each of the last two games.
Kansas City has just 32 runs of 10-plus yards this season, which is 30th in football only ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns.
Watch out for first-round rookie and speedster WR Xavier Worthy to get involved in the run game. He has 18 rushing attempts this season, mostly on end-arounds. Sixteen of his carries have come on 1st down, 15 of those 1st and 10 (the other 1st and goal from the three), while the other two came on 2nd and 2 and 2nd and 8.
End-arounds are common, but watch out for windback plays like these.
Schematically, from their base run game, there’s a mix of zone and man. They like to run gap to the boundary/closed side of the field.
There are also plenty of RPOs, often paired with the inside zone as the run call, as we’ll touch on below.
Some other stats. They are only plus-4 in turnover margin, though it’s a major improvement after finishing 2023 at minus-11. Offensively, they take care of the ball well, with just 14 turnovers on the season, including zero in five straight games. That’s easily the NFL’s longest active streak and the longest of the entire NFL season.
They’re averaging just 23.7 points per game, 11th in the league and 0.2 points ahead of Pittsburgh. They’ve only topped out at 30 in any one game this season and have been held at or under 21 points on six occasions. They are incredible on third down, tops in the league at 51 percent, which, if that stands by season’s end, would be the NFL’s top figure since the 2021 Chiefs (52.2 percent). It helps they average the shortest yards-to-go on third down at 6.2. However, their lack of points can be pinned on underwhelming red zone play, 26th at 51.7 percent.
Chiefs’ Pass Game
Patrick Mahomes didn’t miss any time with his high-ankle sprain suffered two weeks ago and didn’t look impacted during Saturday’s win over the Houston Texans. His numbers feel mortal this year. His 5.8 ANY/A, 6.6 YPA, and 4.2-percent touchdown rate are all single-season lows for his career. Still, he’s a very talented player who can make the big play at any time and seems to come up large in the most critical moments.
TE Travis Kelce has become an underneath option with an ADOT of 6.6, a career-low since the stat began being tracked in 2018. He’s not the YAC threat that he’s been either, averaging just 3.2 YAC/R, also a low mark. Still, he has over 102 targets with 89 receptions and 739 yards, though just two touchdowns. None since Nov. 10. He’s been held under 50 yards in three-straight games.
Rookie Xavier Worthy has seen an uptick in looks, with exactly 11 targets in the last two games. And TE Noah Gray is an underrated name and part of a Chiefs’ offense that uses heavier groupings more than you might think. He’s tied with Worthy for the team lead with five touchdowns. Trade acquisition DeAndre Hopkins has between 4-5 catches in his last five games while the team got back WR Hollywood Brown over the weekend. He logged just 20 offensive snaps against the Texans but saw eight targets, catching five for 45 yards.
Ex-Steeler JuJu Smith-Schuster has 15 receptions for 209 yards and two scores, though roughly half his production comes from one big game against the New Orleans Saints earlier this season.
Schematically, it’s a horizontal passing game with a lot of crossers and layers. Much of it is designed to beat man coverage. They like to lean on the RPO game in the early downs, pairing inside zone with a bubble by No. 2/3, often Worthy, swinging out into the flats. Some runs and some passes below.
One really interesting concept they use is the ‘Dash.’ Something that feels more from the 1990s or high school era, the dash is a designed delayed rollout. The quarterback drops back, takes a beat in the pocket, and then rolls to his right. Here’s one great example.
I remember this from an old Dick LeBeau Cincinnati Bengals playbook from the early 2000s.
Good pull, Matt! From the 2002 LeBeau playbook on explaining/defending the Dash. pic.twitter.com/rmV6jQNdnu
— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) September 30, 2024
The Chiefs love making what’s old new again, so this is a fun wrinkle I usually don’t get to talk about.
In key moments, third down and two-minute, they love using pivot/jerk routes and switch release to create natural picks for Kelce and others. Assorted examples below.
And they often align Kelce backside in 3×1 in these moments to force defenses to declare coverages. We’ll see if Minkah Fitzpatrick gets matched up on him in this game during key situations.
Josh’s Individual Report
It’s Chiefs week, Steelers fans, and a Merry Christmas to all!
Just a few short days after facing off against the Baltimore Ravens, the Pittsburgh Steelers have to turn around and do it again on a short week, this time hosting the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day at Acrisure Stadium in the first-ever matchup on Netflix.
Oh, what fun.
Nothing like arguably the best team in football with a trio of Hall of Famers on the offensive side in head coach Andy Reid, QB Patrick Mahomes, and TE Travis Kelce rolling into town on a short week.
They might not look like it on film due to the lack of true explosive plays, but this Chiefs offense is so efficient. It stresses defenses with formations and misdirection and can just shred defenses over and over again, making for very long days for the opponent.
It all starts with Mahomes. The Chiefs have been otherworldly since he stepped into the starting lineup in 2018. That’s because Mahomes is one of the greatest of all time. He’s a very smart quarterback who understands defensive alignments and where to attack pre-snap.
Due to his arm strength and accuracy, he can also make every single throw on the field, throw off platforms with ease, and make some absurd throws.
Oh, and even when hobbled with an ankle injury, he can still scramble and make plays, too.
Make no mistake, though: Mahomes is magical because of what his right arm can do. He has perfected the art of making plays when all hell breaks loose, and he is among the league’s best at extending the play and taking advantage when things break down.
One of the more absurd throws of the year was this one from Mahomes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier in the season.
He leaves you shaking your head at what he can do. He’s incredibly hard to defend himself, and when he can make plays within the pocket and things break down around him like this, good luck defending on the back end, too, with the weapons he has.
Add in a guy like Andy Reid, who schemes things up better than most in the NFL, and, well, it makes the Chiefs incredibly hard to defend. Reid will use every single piece at his disposal and find a way to use every blade of grass possible to get guys open and win.
Here is a nice, quick pick at the line of scrimmage, and RB Samaje Perine is out the back door for a 36-yard gain on the swing route.
Having a QB like Mahomes and a play-caller like Reid is a cheat code for the Chiefs. They are a deadly combination together. Outside of Kelce and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, there aren’t many big names as weapons for the Chiefs, but they all complement each other very well and work at a high level within Reid’s system.
Rookie Xavier Worthy has the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL Combine history and was a first-round pick coming out of Texas this year. He’s an explosive weapon and was a big name in the draft. He might be a big name in Kansas City, but you don’t hear a ton about him weekly in the NFL.
The Chiefs know how to use him, and that’s all that matters.
This goes down as a rush for Worthy because of the backward throw, but it’s a great display of how the Chiefs are creative and want to get him the ball in space as much as possible with a head of seam to take advantage of his speed.
It’s anywhere on the field, too.
Nice design here in the red zone to get Worthy an easy win on a speed out against man coverage from 8 yards out. With Mahomes’ ability to process quickly and his arm strength, that’s really hard to defend.
Along with Worthy, the Chiefs added Hollywood Brown via trade this offseason. He missed almost all of the 2024 season due to a shoulder injury suffered in the preseason. But in his return Saturday, Brown showed what he could provide the Chiefs in space.
Mesh is a killer for the Chiefs with their speed and weapons. It stresses defenses. Look at that play to Brown. One defender had to pick between Brown and Kelce, and if Mahomes held the ball a tick longer, Kelce would be wide open.
Speaking of Kelce, Mike Tomlin had a ton of praise for him, calling him an unselfish player who does everything for the team. His stats are down this year, but there’s no complaining. He’s the ultimate team player.
He’s also still pretty dang good, too.
While the Chiefs have several guys they can call on in the passing game, they have two good running backs to lean on, too, and can run the football well, making them a very difficult offense to defend.
Kareem Hunt has been key for the Chiefs after returning midseason due to Isiah Pacheco’s injury. He’s a smart, decisive runner who runs hard behind his pads and fits into the downhill attack for the Chiefs.
He’s shifty enough to make guys miss, too.
But Pacheco, when healthy, is the workhorse. He’s an angry runner who pumps his legs and can rip off explosive plays.
With those two, the Chiefs can rotate backs and pound the rock if they want to.
It’s impressive that they’re able to do all that offensively in spite of some poor play from the offensive line.
When the offensive line has all its pieces healthy, it’s a very good. But this year, the tackles have been a problem due to health issues, causing one of the best interior linemen to play out of position.
Here’s how I expect them to line up, left to right, on Wednesday.
LT — Joe Thuney
LG — Mike Caliendo
C — Creed Humphrey
RG — Trey Smith
RT — Jawaan Taylor
Thuney is an All-Pro guard who has kicked out to left tackle and has held his own. It’s not been great, but he’s stepped up and given the Chiefs serviceable reps protecting Mahomes’ blindside.
Taylor is a question mark. Wanya Morris would be the next man up if he can’t go. Morris played pretty well against the Texans at right tackle, which is the position he played in college at Oklahoma, so there might not be much dropoff there.
Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey remain great on the interior, upholding the standard in Kansas City, while Caliendo has given the Chiefs serviceable reps in recent weeks.
On special teams, the Chiefs have kicker Harrison Butker back. Even without him, the Chiefs were outstanding. But getting one of the best kickers in the game back into the fold is a huge boost, and the Chiefs have benefitted from it.
He’s missed just three kicks on the year and is 8 for his last 9 on the year.
Punter Matt Araiza is a weapon, averaging 48.3 yards per punt on the year. 20 of his 52 punts have been downed inside the 20-yard line, and another 17 have resulted in fair catches. However, the Chiefs have had some issues covering punts as teams are averaging 10.4 yards per punt return in 23 chances against Kansas City.
Perine, Mecole Hardman, Carson Steele, and Nikko Remigio handled the kick return duties in the return game. Remigio had a great day Saturday against the Texans, ripping off a 36-yard return.
He’s getting more work there and has been an intriguing find.
Hardman handled punt returns much of the year, but Remigio has emerged and has seven punt returns in the last three games, averaging nearly 10 yards per return.
