The Pittsburgh Steelers clinched a playoff spot on Sunday despite losing to the Philadelphia Eagles, and now the question is just how far they can go. ESPN’s Seth Walder ran over 10,000 simulations for the rest of the season using their Football Power Index metric, and the most common result had the Steelers getting the AFC’s No. 3 seed before bowing out in the divisional round against the Buffalo Bills.
The FPI simulation had Pittsburgh claiming the AFC North with a win over the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, and then saw the Steelers pull off a 20-17 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17. The Steelers would fail to win in Week 18, though, and the Chiefs would maintain the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win over the Denver Broncos.
Pittsburgh got the No.3 seed and hosted the No. 6 seed Los Angeles Chargers at Acrisure Stadium, pulling off a win before falling to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Round. The Bills would go on to beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship and head to the Super Bowl to match up with the Detroit Lions, a repeat of their Week 15 matchup, and Buffalo wound up on top.
It’s a pretty conceivable outcome for the Steelers, although one that might be mildly disappointing. With the Steelers being one of the best teams in the AFC, and their No. 3 seed in the simulation proves that, expectations are high for this group. A loss in the divisional round would be a little bit of a bummer. But winning a playoff game is a necessity for a team that hasn’t done so in eight years, and the Steelers were able to take care of business with a win over the Chargers.
It would be a good sign if the Steelers are able to beat both the Ravens and the Chiefs in Weeks 16 and 17, and in reality, that will likely hinge on their health. If the Steelers have T.J. Watt and George Pickens back, along with potentially DeShon Elliott, their odds will be a lot better to win those games and give themselves momentum heading into the postseason. If their key pieces remain out, it could be a slog down the stretch as the Steelers look to get everyone back healthy in time to make a run.
Watt is expected to play on Saturday, and that could make this simulation become more of a reality. Numbers can only tell you so much, but this is an outcome that makes sense for the Steelers, and we’ll see if they can exceed what the computers think they’re capable of.
