The Pittsburgh Steelers are sitting atop the AFC North at 9-3. They’ve already beaten the Baltimore Ravens. And they’re fresh off a shootout win over the Cincinnati Bengals, 44-38.
There is no question that QB Russell Wilson has invigorated the Steelers’ offense. But one area of the offense hasn’t been where they want it to be. The Steelers’ run game, while chugging along, is not the strength that most people imagined it would be. And that has analyst Fran Duffy concerned.
“They’re gonna wanna run the football,” said Duffy on the Athletic Football Show Wednesday morning. “They’re gonna take their explosive shots down the field outside the numbers with Russell Wilson and George Pickens is gonna dunk on guys down the field. Like that’s what this offense is gonna be. And to me, my biggest concern with them, do they run the ball well enough, consistently enough for that to be their true identity? And so when I look at it, I look at the numbers for them, and they’re 23rd in both EPA per carry and success rate in the run game. They’re 22nd in percentage of carries that see contact behind the line of scrimmage.”
If you look at RB Najee Harris’ stats, you’d probably be surprised at what Duffy is saying. Harris is on track for his second-straight season with at least 4.0 yards per carry. And he averaged 4.7 yards on 16 carries against the Bengals on Sunday. But in the preceding three games, Harris’ highest average was 3.5 against the Ravens. He had sub-3.0 yards per carry in the other two games.
And part of that is the lack of yards before contact. There are 27 running backs in the league with least 4.0 yards per carry with at least 100 carries. Harris is tied for 25th with 1.8 yards before contact per carry (tied with Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner). Only Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White averages fewer yards before contact per carry at 1.4
In fact, only five running backs leaguewide who meet this criterion have under 2.0 yards before contact per carry. So that shows that Harris is having a good year and doing a lot of the heavy lifting himself.
But it speaks to Duffy’s comments. The Steelers’ run game isn’t very effective or efficient right now. And considering that’s what offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to do, that’s problematic.
What provides an interesting wrinkle to this whole discussion is the game plan the Steelers had against the Bengals. Yes, the Steelers ran for over 100 yards against Cincinnati. But the running backs also contributed over 100 yards through the air to help negate the Bengals’ pass rush. On days when the running game is struggling a bit, getting the backs involved in the short passing game can function as a form of the run game.
The offense right now is succeeding thanks in large part to Russell Wilson. But as we get closer to the playoffs, teams will certainly be focusing on the running game. And the Steelers’ run game needs improvement to help drive the team to playoff success.
