As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 11 game against the Baltimore Ravens.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Pat Freiermuth Has Season-Best Performance
The Ravens’ pass defense has struggled this year, especially down the middle of the field. Roquan Smith hasn’t been nearly as strong in coverage than he was a year ago. There’s a chance for Pittsburgh to attack real estate they typically don’t with Freiermuth down the seams.
Russell Wilson and the Steelers’ offense still prefers to throw vertically and outside the numbers but as OC Arthur Smith pointed out earlier in the week, they’re still scheming up plays for Freiermuth. They’ve continued to isolate him on the backside of 3×1 looks, creating matchup problems for defenses. One drew a 20-plus yard DPI last week. Today could be a big one for Freiermuth, potentially hitting 60 yards for the first time all season.
2. George Pickens Takes Advantage Downfield
While Freiermuth could and should see more looks over the middle, the Steelers bread is buttered the same way. Because the Ravens don’t tend to travel top CB Marlon Humphrey, Pittsburgh can dictate matchups. Get Pickens on CB Brandon Stephens or rookie Nate Wiggins, two talented but volatile corners, and Pickens could win big. He came up large with the game-winning downfield touchdown in the first meeting last year before being shutout in the finale. Let’s hope Sunday’s performance is more like the former.
3. Steelers Win Final 5 Minutes
Which is how they’ve won so many of these games. Steelers-Ravens are always close but Pittsburgh simply has a knack for making more big plays late than Baltimore does. It’s how Pittsburgh won against the Washington Commanders last week. Every big play in the final five minutes swung the Steelers way. That’ll be needed again in all three phases: offense, defense, and special teams. Baltimore also has struggled in the fourth quarter this year, allowing two-near comebacks after building big leads. They haven’t had as much success closing out games.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Steelers Can’t Sort Out Ravens Run Game
Kudos to Pittsburgh for subduing Washington but even still, they allowed 27 points and could’ve easily given up more. Baltimore runs the same style of offense but on the graduate level. Pittsburgh’s plan in the past has been to minimize Lamar Jackson’s legs and let the running back have more success; Mike Tomlin has straight-up admitted to that.
That strategy can work when the runner is Austin Ekeler or Gus Edwards. When it’s future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry? You’re less confident in winning that way. If anything, I think Pittsburgh has to allow Jackson to run a little bit in this game. The focus needs to start with Henry. There’s always a trade-off and consequence. Answers here aren’t easy. But if Pittsburgh can’t have an ace plan, even with their stockpile of defensive talent, it could be a long day.
Of course, execution will be just as key. Elandon Roberts, DeShon Elliott, and those cornerbacks who will be tested on the perimeter run game (sweeps/crack toss, etc). Bring a hard hat.
2. Ravens Receivers Win Over Middle, Get YAC
Baltimore’s offense is more multi-dimensional than ever before. Their receivers are threats with speed and post-catch ability. Zay Flowers is a big-time worry and Pittsburgh’s secondary got exposed in man coverage off their pressure looks last week against Washington. Baltimore can hit on the plays Washington couldn’t. CB Donte Jackson needs to bounce back and DB Cam Sutton has to show last week was rust, not regression.
3. Pittsburgh’s Run Game Gets Stuck
Mercifully, the Steelers can lead with their passing game. But they still can’t win solely with it. The run game has to get going quicker than last week and Baltimore’s run defense is still difficult even if the attention is their sub-par passing defense. This is the No. 1 ranked run defense in football. They might be hurting up front and not as stout as past years but they don’t give up big plays in the running game. Pittsburgh needs to avoid running their head into a wall.
Prediction
Steelers: 23
Ravens: 21
Season Prediction Record
4-5
