The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 8-2, on a five-game winning streak and in pole position atop the AFC North after a critical rivalry win against the Baltimore Ravens (7-4). Let’s look at their passing chart from Sunday’s game.
Couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with bats at the line of scrimmage. Four throwaways (season-high) and a bat were removed.
Not QB Russell Wilson’s best day, with defense and special teams stepping up.
Namely his first of four games without a TD, and second straight game with an INT. The latter was an unnecessary risk in the red zone, putting the ball in harms way, uncharacteristic for 2024 Pittsburgh QBs (three all year).
Overall, 23-of-36 on the stat sheet, each highs for Wilson this season, and most attempts for either starter. Not surprising facing Baltimore’s top run defense heading into the matchup. A 63.9 completion percentage was also less than desirable, along with 5.7 YPA and 6.3 ADOT each at season-lows.
Wilson’s 83.9-percent adjusted completion rate was much better, so his performance wasn’t as inaccurate as other outings when removing throwaways, and three drops, the most in 2024 to date. Also faced 13 pressures, contributing to four sacks, each tying for the most through his four games. That led to running around more than planned, and leading to some understandable antsy-ness at times.
Possessed the ball well, moving it decently including 205 passing yards, but thoroughly struggled in situational football. On late downs, the offense was 4-of-17 (23.5-percent), and 0-4 in red zone TDs. The latter has been the bigger issue, and will hopefully be one of the bigger improvements starting Thursday night against another divisional opponent: the Cleveland Browns.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 31 charted passes, with number of throws at each pass distance for Week Ten:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 38.7-percent. First play was a check down at the line to RB Najee Harris after looking downfield, with space and churning YAC for 7-yards. The next pass was at 3-air yards, a 4-yard stop route to WR George Pickens tackled quickly. Both were first downs, but followed by two back-to-back throwaways and a FG.
On drive three, 1st and 10 RB Jaylen Warren flat route catch at the line, FMT but corralled for just three yards. Eventual 4+1 fail (stymied runs), score still 3-0.
Next, a 2nd and 10, drive five. Wilson hits TE Pat Freiermuth on an out route at four air yards, with space and an inside cut for nine yards, one of only two targets (and catches) though. Couple plays later, Wilson threw under duress (T Broderick Jones), hitting the late flat/out from WR Ben Skowronek from tight alignment at 4-air yards, where he was tackled quickly. 3rd and 4 sack followed (Jones). A field goal gave Pittsburgh a 6-0 lead.
Wilson’s fourth and final sack followed, by mid second quarter. Thankful that improved, but more pain next play. Dump-off over the middle at five air yards, with Harris looking to roam before securing the catch and it’s dropped on 2nd and 20. Crucial in having to punt.
1st and 10, nearing halftime. Stop route to Pickens against off coverage at 5-air yards, but only a gain of 6 lacking YAC thus far. Right back to Pickens on 2nd and 4, a quick out pushed out of bounds, impacting his ability to get his second foot in-bounds on this overturned catch-to-incompletion. 3rd and 4 scramble fail ensued: punt, down 7-6.
Pittsburgh linebacker Patrick Queen delivered another takeaway, an additional red zone opportunity before halftime. First down was Freiermuth’s other target, open in zone at four air yards, and five-yard gain. This means no second half targets, and high on my radar to change moving forward. Another drive fails, but FG gets the 9-7 locker room lead.
Second half. First example was a play-action checkdown over the middle to Warren, with room and a defender slipping, capitalizing with eight YAC and ten-yard chain-mover. Later same drive, it’s 3rd and 3. Wilson checked it down to Warren short of the sticks (at the line), but unable to YAC enough for just two yards and solid tackle. FG, 12-7 lead.
Late third quarter, it’s 3rd and 7 in the red zone. Out route to WR Van Jefferson off his hands and dropped, along with being targeted short of the sticks again. They have, and did miss tackles, but not your best guy in those terms Pittsburgh. Triple frustrating fail.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: 25.8-percent. Four yet to be mentioned. Early second quarter, Wilson wants Pickens, then runs in the pocket like he’s in a hamster wheel, circling back to him on the scramble drill on a nice throw at 6-air yards, an 8-yard gain on 3rd and 1. This was one of just three passing conversions of the game and still felt like pulling teeth.
Mid-second quarter, it’s 3rd and 20. Doom and gloom previously (Wilson fourth sack drive), with Wilson hitting Pickens on the slant at 8-air yards, with YAC effort but gaining no more.
Another tough situation, 2nd and 16, third quarter. Wilson hits Pickens on the stop route at 6-air yards, who thankfully finds a great YAC crease via a forced missed tackle along the sideline for the 17-yard chain-mover.
Early fourth quarter, 3rd and 5. Wilson zips in a slant to Pickens at 7-yards, hanging on to the catch despite a big hit bending his leg awkwardly. So, the pass distances so far were the only three third down conversions of the game.
#3. Behind-the-Line: 22.6-percent. Seven passes. First drive, the third 1st and 10 pass was a quick screen to Pickens. Not blocked well, running into Freiermuth who was pushed back, but able to get a bit of YAC to the sideline for two yards. Next charted pass on drive two came here. Fake toss, WR screen to Cordarrelle Patterson, corralled by a free tackler for no gain.
Early second quarter, a RB screen to Harris was successful, featuring nice vision/cuts and great downfield blocking (G’s Isaac Seumalo, Mason McCormick) for an explosive 20-yard gain.
Much later in the third quarter, back to another screen to Harris on first down. Space, stiff-arm, and YAC for four yards. Targeted a whopping seven yards behind the line limited the gain. Same drive, 2nd and 7. McCormick gets out in front of another RB screen, aiding Warren’s cut and YAC for a nice 12-yard drive extender.
On the final drive, Wilson dumps to Harris (blitz), who gives great effort including a forced missed tackles on a big pop but goes for a loss of one on 2nd and six. Then, late final drive, a slot screen to WR Calvin Austin was blown up by a free tackler in the open field for a loss of one on his only catch.
So, a mixed bag that Pittsburgh needs to block up more consistently, with RB success and WR failures.
T-4th. 10-15 air-yards: 12.9-percent. Four examples. Drive five, it’s a play-action boot right where the accuracy to Pickens was a bit low on his intermediate out route, a catch he’s certainly capable of but incomplete at 14 air yards on first down.
The others came fourth quarter, all to TE Darnell Washington, also all three of his targets. Another first down pass, Wilson corralling a poor shotgun snap from C Zach Frazier, and the post route between the hashes beat zone wide open at 13 air yards, rumbling for YAC on the 25-yard gain.
That drive ended with pain in the red zone, 3rd and 5 yards to go. Wilson is confined in the pocket (Jones beat), able to extend by stiff-arming out, but his decision to lob it up (too far) to the big man goes for the end zone interception. Arthur Smith GIF.
Mid-fourth quarter, it’s 3rd and 7. Beats zone, getting up the seam and Wilson hitting it decisively at 11 air yards, with some YAC as well to pick up 17 yards on the conversion. Nice to see from Washington, and hope that continues along with more involvement from others at this distance.
T-4th. Explosive (20-plus air-yards): 12.9-percent. Four here. Second drive 3rd and 1, Wilson sees single coverage on a go route by Austin down the left sideline but a bit short, and goes off his shoulder pad incomplete. Catchable ball, but not exactly your contested catch guy. If not Pickens, maybe the man you just traded for that’s known for this?
Red zone 3rd and 10, last throw before half. Another go-ball, targeting Pickens in the end zone, but tight coverage and PBU through his hands and incomplete. Refs let them play in these situations. FG: 9-7 lead.
Late third quarter. This one was perfect to Pickens on a double-move go ball, plucking it with late hands against tight coverage near the sideline at 32-air yards, adding another five in YAC to the red zone on 2nd and 15. Beautiful.
Final pass of the game (3:46), you guessed it, another go-ball to Pickens. It’s another physical WR/DB hand fighting charade, but no call and the end zone target falling incomplete. So not an explosive day, which you’d probably guess from the scoreboard.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: 3.2-percent. Only example was already mentioned, the 3rd and 10 fail just before half to Pickens at 20 air yards. Usually the least common pass distance of 2024, but especially so in Week 11. An area I’ve been clamoring to use more, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
The vast majority of issues arose outside the numbers including his interception, while the only incompletion otherwise was the Harris drop. Four explosive attempts, all towards the left sideline were obviously problematic, aside from the pretty one to Pickens.
When Wilson went between the numbers past ten yards, good things happened. Just two attempts in the fourth quarter though, both to Washington for chunk plays, and should have been a bigger game-plan priority in my opinion.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 7/7 (100-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 9/11 (81.8-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 6/8 (75.0-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 2/4 (50.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 0/1 (0.0-percent).
Explosive: 1/4 (25.0-percent).
Solid rates at ten yards or less. Struggled otherwise, with Baltimore’s defense deserving some credit, but also emphasizes how things can feel if the moon ball isn’t cooking.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 7/11 (63.6-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 7/7 (100-percent).
Inside hashes: 2/3 (66.7-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 5/5 (100-percent).
Outside right numbers: 2/5 (40.0-percent).
The pass game had perfect rates between the hash and numbers on both sides of the field. Impressive, but included a long of 11 air yards, re-emphasizing the aforementioned untapped potential IMO. Issues outside the numbers, where Wilson prefers to throw, and 14-of-15 charted incompletions came, including the interception. Big reason for lack of success if you ask me.
Now for the heat-maps for charted-passes, then completions only:
We see the biggest drop-off was right outside the numbers, where the longest completion was at the line of scrimmage. The deep blob to the left also decimates on the completions only view. If not for the one completion there, would have been a depressing final map in terms of air yards. The only completions past ten yards were 32, 13, and 11. Yes, take what the defense gives you, but context to the struggles and their luck in victory.
Next, here’s Wilson and Fields’ 261 charted throws of the 2024 regular season:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 40.6-percent. Previously 40.9-percent. 2023 35.0-percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 26.1-percent. Previously 26.1-percent. 2023 23.8-percent.
#3. Explosive: 14.6-percent. Previously 14.8-percent. 2023 12.4-percent.
#4. Behind-the-line: 14.2-percent. Previously 13.0-percent. 2023 18.5-percent.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 10.0-percent. Previously 9.6-percent. 2023 13.0-percent.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 6.5-percent. Previously 7.0-percent. 2023 10.8-percent.
Ranks were unchanged this week. The biggest uptick and overall shift was behind the line (expectedly), while 10-15 increased, and 5-10 stood pat. Downticks included 0-5, explosive, and 15-20. Baltimore clearly encouraged short passing.
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 14/17 (82.4-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 31/40 (77.5-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 15/26 (57.7-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 4/10 (40.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 4/8 (50.0-percent).
Explosive: 9/18 (50.0-percent).
FIELDS:
Behind-the-line: 15/20 (75.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 57/65 (87.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 30/42 (71.4-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/16 (50.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 5/9 (55.6-percent).
Explosive: 6/20 (30.0-percent).
Wilson improved behind the line, 5-10, and 10-15 rates (still unsuccessful here). So, 0-5, and past 15 yards were the regression, with the latter expected from earlier in the article. With Wilson at four games, Fields has higher rates at each distance except behind the line and explosive. That narrative changed after Wilson’s deep ball regression Week 11, hopefully the outlier amidst a small sample size.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 22/38 (57.9-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 19/24 (79.2-percent).
Inside hashes: 2/6 (33.3-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 15/18 (83.3-percent).
Outside right numbers: 17/25 (68.0-percent).
FIELDS:
Outside left numbers: 35/53 (66.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 14/20 (70.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 11/13 (84.6-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 26/33 (78.8-percent).
Outside right numbers: 20/31 (64.5-percent).
Wilson doubled his inside the hash throws, for his first completions as well, but not comparable to Fields’ success. Wilson’s success between the hash and numbers in Week 11, and in 2024 stand out, and hopefully continues. Outside the right numbers has been more successful than left, where he has thrown the most. Neither were ideal last game, and would like to see a more even split moving forward.
Whatever you do, be better situationally on third down, red zone, and in the points department.
To close, here are the dots along with heat maps for all charted attempts and completions only:
