The Pittsburgh Steelers took a big step forward toward a playoff berth with their Week 11 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Not only are they now in great position to win the AFC North with a 1.5-game lead (and a tiebreaker) over the Ravens, but they are in position for a chance at the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
Until today the Steelers didn’t control their No. 1-seed destiny, but because the Buffalo Bills defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, they now do. However unlikely it might be, they are now in position to get a first-round bye if they win out the rest of the season. There are obviously many games yet to be played.
I am not suggesting this to be the most likely outcome, but their chances at that No. 1 seed increased following Week 11. Why? Let me explain.
The top three teams in the conference at the moment are the Chiefs (9-1), Bills (9-2), and Steelers (8-2). The Bills haven’t had their bye yet and won their game when the Steelers were on bye. The Bills have their bye this upcoming week while the Steelers play the Cleveland Browns.
If we assume the most generous case for all teams, with all three winning out other than the Steelers beating the Chiefs in Week 17, there would be a three-way tie at 15-2 because the Steelers and Bills do not play each other in the regular season.
Per the NFL’s tie-breaking procedures, because all three teams are in different divisions, the tiebreaker rule set would be the ones used to determine wild-card teams. That means head-to-head record would knock the Chiefs a peg below both the Bills and the Steelers since they would have lost to both in this scenario I am laying out.
The next tiebreaker would be conference record. The Bills and Steelers both have two losses, but the Steelers lost one to the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC, while the Bills lost to the Ravens and Houston Texans.
If all three teams end up at 14-3 with a tied conference record, the Bills currently have the best chance at the No. 1 seed. They have a 3-1 edge in common opponents versus the Steelers with just one game against the New York Jets outstanding. The Steelers are 2-1 against common opponents, with games against the Ravens and Chiefs outstanding.
The picture will get clearer with each passing week, but the Steelers’ hopes of a first-round bye are very much alive following the Week 11 results. It would be their first bye in the playoffs since 2017 when they were the No. 2 seed to the New England Patriots with a 13-3 record.
It would also be their first time as the No. 1 seed in the AFC since 2004, during Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season when they went 15-1. Unfortunately, the No. 2 seed no longer results in a first-round bye with the playoffs expanding to seven teams per conference in the 2020 season.
