I participated in a Steelers Town Hall discussion at the start of the season. Our consensus was that the Pittsburgh Steelers would finish with a record of 11-6. We correctly predicted the Steelers entering the bye with a 6-2 record but not the teams they would lose to. We said Atlanta and Dallas.
In my season prediction, I stated, “The Steelers’ tough schedule plus some big questions on the offensive line and slot corner could put Pittsburgh anywhere from 7-10 to 10-7. More pessimistic going into this season than last. But, I chose to go to the high end.”
State of the Steelers at Halfway Mark
The state of the Steelers at the halfway mark is encouraging despite some injuries. Pittsburgh lost offensive linemen James Daniels and Troy Fautanu for the rest of the regular season as well as defensive linemen DeMarvin Leal. But they have Zach Frazier back at center and Mason McCormick is proving a worthy guard. Broderick Jones needs to improve his technique at right tackle and finish blocks. Meanwhile, left tackle Dan Moore has quietly put together solid work. Also, defensive back Cam Sutton has been reinstated from his eight-game suspension.
The Steelers are also getting back players who have missed significant time. The list includes OLB Nick Herbig, CB Cory Trice and special teamers Ben Skowronek and Tyler Matakevich. GM Omar Khan acquired wide receiver Mike Williams from the Jets and edge rusher Preston Smith from the Packers. Both add depth at their respective positions.
Otherwise, the team is healthy and should be ready to weather a tough post-bye nine-game schedule.
Encouraging Performances Up Until Now
All three Steelers phases have delivered encouraging performances. On offense, Mike Tomlin’s controversial decision to start Russell Wilson after Justin Fields led the team to a 4-2 start has paid off so far. Wilson opens up the offense. Plus, we have a backup quarterback who has demonstrated he can win. Najee Harris is tearing it up on the ground. George Pickens continues to excel despite having two touchdowns negated by a penalty and the two-foot rule.
The defense has come up with big plays to stifle opponents. T.J. Watt strip-sacking and recovering a fumble to stop the momentum after Wilson fumbled against the Giants. And rookie Beanie Bishop’s three interceptions, including one to ice the Giants game. Cameron Heyward is controlling the line of scrimmage. New Steelers like Deshon Elliott and Donte Jackson create a solid secondary with Joey Porter Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick. And I have not even mentioned Alex Highsmith or Patrick Queen. Collectively, the defense allows just 14.9 points a game. However, the Steelers have had lapses in defending the run. And they allowed Dallas to score a touchdown, giving up a 17-13 lead with 20 seconds to play. Eliminate those lapses and this unit can emerge an elite defense.
Danny Smith put together a fantastic special teams unit. Chris Boswell is banging in field goals, second in the NFL with 23 of them. Corliss Waitman is punting very consistently. He could challenge Bobby Joe Green’s franchise record 47 yards per punt in a season. The coverage unit is limiting opponents to 4.8 yards per punt return. Meanwhile, Calvin Austin III scored a punt-return touchdown and is averaging 12.9 yards a return. And how about the blocked kicks? Pittsburgh blocked kicks in three-straight games. And had one negated by penalty that the league later said should have counted.
Post Bye Game-by-Game Predictions
Now that we are beyond the bye, I will go back through the remaining schedule to see what changes to make. Some teams are stronger than predicted in the preseason while others may have fallen off. Regardless, the Steelers’ remaining schedule is still brutal.
Week 10 – At Washington Commanders
The Commanders sit atop of the NFC East at 7-2. They lost the season opener to Tampa Bay. Their only other loss was a tough 30-23 decision against the Baltimore Ravens. Jayden Daniels is a mobile quarterback demonstrating decision-making beyond his youth. The rookie has only thrown two interceptions this season. Add running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler and there is a potent rushing attack. If you stack the box, then Daniels has Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz to target.
Unfortunately, I predict a loss to the favored Commanders coming out of the bye.
Record: 6-3
Week 11 – Versus Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh’s first division game is at home against the Ravens, a very tough opponent. The Ravens are peaking and have added wide receiver Diontae Johnson to their offensive arsenal. This will be his third game as a crow. So, expect him to get some targets while his route running takes attention from Zay Flowers. Baltimore’s defense is improving and it recently acquired cornerback Tre’Davious White.
The Steelers have a 7-1 record against Baltimore in the last eight games played. But we cannot rely on past results. Pittsburgh will have its hands full but wins a close one at home.
Record: 7-3
Week 12 – At Cleveland Browns
The Steelers travel to Cleveland on a short week after a tough battle against Baltimore. I believe Cleveland is more dangerous with Jameis Winston than Deshaun Watson at quarterback. But Winston is inconsistent. He can play lights out and pass for three touchdowns and 350 yards. Or throw three interceptions. Plus, the Browns are one of the teams that traded talent for future draft picks, a good sign that they are starting to pack their bags.
Cleveland plays Pittsburgh tough. But Winston is in a giving mood. And we win the turnover battle and the game.
Record: 8-3
Week 13 – At Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh has a long break after Cleveland, but it must travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals are currently 4-5. But if they beat the Chargers in Week 11, they may be energized for a wild-card spot with a couple easy opponents later in the schedule. The Bengals are a dangerous team with Joe Burrow in form. And they are coming out of a bye week for this game.
Pittsburgh loses this one.
Record: 8-4
Week 14 -Versus Cleveland Browns
The Steelers will rebound for the win at home against Cleveland. By this point the Browns could be on their way to being eliminated from playoff contention if Denver beats them. These are the types of games Pittsburgh must win to remain a viable contender.
Record: 9-4
Week 15 – At Philadelphia Eagles
The Steelers have not won in Philadelphia since 1965 — almost 25 years before Cameron Heyward was born. The Eagles have too many weapons for Pittsburgh to overcome. If Saquon Barkley is healthy, it could be a long day of ground and pound.
Record: 9-5
Week 16 – At Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh plays Baltimore on a Saturday. The game is important for both teams. John Harbaugh will have his team hyped for this game. The Ravens want to break the streak and do.
Record: 9-6
Week 17 – Versus Kansas City Chiefs
Pittsburgh hosts Kansas City on Christmas Day, the Steelers coming off a tough game in Baltimore. The Chiefs play the Texans at home the previous Saturday. Playing the Ravens is likely more physical than playing the Texans, giving the Chiefs an edge. Patrick Mahomes has his magic and is 3-2 head-to-head versus Russell Wilson. Will the Chiefs still be undefeated at this point? They are hungry for an unprecedented three-peat.
Pittsburgh gets coal for Christmas.
Record: 9-7
Week 18 – Versus Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh must win this game to have a shot at the playoffs. Depending on the Bengals’ performance, the winner of this game may be extending their season while the loser is going home. The Steelers play it close but take the victory.
Record: 10-7
Conclusion
I have Steelers going 3-3 within the AFC North. That is the minimum necessary for them to have a good shot at the playoffs. Baltimore is peaking right now. Cincinnati is dangerous and a couple key wins could keep it vying for a wild-card spot.
The Steelers are not helped by their tough second-half schedule. Pittsburgh needed to stack some wins on the front half of the schedule, and it did. Now can it make through the second half of the schedule and into the playoffs?
Your Song Selection
I always like to include a bit of music. The Steelers give fans a reason for optimism, but the second half of the schedule brutal. If the team is in the groove and gets the rhythm right, it could roll all night. But let’s take a slow ride through each game. Here is Slow Ride performed by Foghat.
