On paper, the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Commanders seems like an immovable object versus an unstoppable force game. The Commanders enter Week 10 with the third best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 29.3 points per game. Pittsburgh enters the game with the second ranked scoring defense, allowing only 14.9 points per game.
But, if you tear those numbers back (specifically for Washington) that could be a mirage, as ESPN’s Ben Solak pointed out when picking the Steelers as his upset of the week.
“There’s no doubt the Commanders have a good offense, but it is worth wondering how good they are against top defenses,” wrote Solak. “In two games against actual top units (Browns and Bears), they went 2-0 — but a Hail Mary was needed to win at home against Chicago. I expect Washington to score some on the Steelers, but if it lets too many drives end in field goals, then Pittsburgh’s offense will be one big George Pickens catch away from sneaking an upset.”
In the Commanders two games against top defenses they scored 34 against the Cleveland Browns and 18 against the Chicago Bears. While six of the 18 against the Bears came on a Hail Mary scoring 34 on a good Browns defense is impressive.
It should also be noted that the Steelers defense has not played a really good offense yet either. The only offense the Steelers have played that ranks in the top 16 is the Atlanta Falcons who sit at 12. The Steelers played Atlanta in Week One when QB Kirk Cousins was noticeably rusty. Credit to Pittsburgh for slowing down a good offense, but Week One performances are not always the best way to determine how good a team or unit is.
Pittsburgh arguably should have given up more points against the Dallas Cowboys as well as the three turnovers including a red zone turnover at the end of the first half to limit how much Dallas scored, despite the Cowboys totaling 445 yards. Would’ve should’ve could’ve though as the Steelers ended up holding Dallas to 20 points.
The game tomorrow will be a litmus test for both the Steelers and Commanders. Both teams have only two losses and are relying on elite units. Which unit comes out on top will determine this game, and it could say a lot about each team going forward. If the Washington offense sputters, it could mean that, (1) the Commanders offense isn’t as good as we thought; and/or (2) the Steelers defense is very legit and can be the catalyst for a Super Bowl run. The inverse is true if the Steelers defense allows a QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense to drop 30+ on them. It could mean (1) Washington’s offense is elite and can win a Super Bowl; and/or (2) the Steelers defense is overrated.
Solak seems to be on the Steelers side here. Pittsburgh’s defense is healthy, and the defense has been consistently good since 2019. It would admittedly be hard to imagine them being a mirage right now. The Steelers defense has built up the good will over theist five years for us to say, the defense is most likely a good unit. The Washington offense has not yet.
