With the Baltimore Ravens coming to town, the first of Pittsburgh’s AFC North matchups, I wanted to look at and provide some important data points focusing on those teams. First, the 2024 divisional regular season records through Week Ten:
The Pittsburgh Steelers currently sit atop the AFC North, and the Ravens are a close second with a matching seven wins but an additional loss (three). Divisional matchups are always key to playoff aspirations. This tight race is refreshing, with Pittsburgh faring so well to date, and adds another layer to the importance of the already most intense NFL rivalry.
The rest of the division has losing records, which is quite surprising given Cincinnati’s expectations thus far, and the Browns are Browning.
Let’s dive into some data, with expected points added (EPA = expected points before and after each play) for the AFC North offenses (OEPA) by week:
Short version: Baltimore’s offense is good. The most consistent group in the AFC North and NFL, including 6-of-10 games with the top 25 OEPA (304 qualifying games). Wow. A 0.47 OEPA in Week Seven’s 41-31 win vs. Tampa Bay was second-best league-wide and included their season sweep of the Bengals. 2-1 record in the division. Only one negative mark (barely), in Week Two’s loss to the Raiders.
It’s unsurprising that Cincinnati had mostly positive OEPA, as they’re strong on that side of the ball. 7-of-10, in fact, with their best coming in Week Three’s 38-33 loss to Washington, ranking 11th league-wide. Second-best was the 41-38 overtime loss to Baltimore in Week Five. Two clearly poor outings, the loss in the season opener, and in division Week Seven. Still got that 21-14 win on Cleveland. 1-2 AFC North record.
The Browns, eek. Only two positive EPA games, their only two wins of 2024: Week Two against Jacksonville (18-13) and Week Eight’s surprising 29-24 victory against Baltimore. Week Seven was their other division matchup, below the line in their loss to Cincinnati (21-14). 1-1 AFC North record. Four very poor OEPA games, all resulting in losses, and -0.38 vs. the Giants Week Three, the NFL’s 13th-worst mark.
Then there’s Pittsburgh. Their results are less volatile, closer to average, with no breakout or catastrophic numbers. Things have felt good the last three games with quarterback Russell Wilson, but that story has been more of a turn it on in clutch time than lighting it up throughout games.
His Week Seven debut was Pittsburgh’s best 0.16 OEPA of 2024, the 37-15 win on the Jets. Threw for two TDs (WRs George Pickens, Van Jefferson), and a rushing TD, while RB Najee Harris had one late as well. Four total TDs, woot. The following Week Eight win was also positive, the “Calvin Austin Game,” where he had a 29-yard receiving TD and 73-yard punt return (26-18 W).
Week Ten was below the OEPA line, which is a bit surprising considering Wilson threw three passing touchdowns, the most from a Steelers quarterback since 2021. Pickens, TE Pat Freiemuth, and new WR Mike Williams were on the receiving end, the former a miraculous highlight and the latter an impressive game-winner tracking the famous Wilson moonball.
Harris added a short-yard rush TD, too, for four total TDs. But there were more negative plays, Wilson’s first INT, for example, which will hopefully be cleaner and necessary to keep up with Baltimore and other potent offenses.
Justin Fields played the first six games, with a split of three positive and negative performances. Weeks Three, Five, and Six were positive, while One, Two, and Four were negative. Pittsburgh’s only two losses to date were in games Four and Five, the former being a worse OEPA outing.
The offense’s first two games were the worst, with low 18 and 13 scoring outputs, a completely different chapter than where Pittsburgh is now (25-plus in the last five games). Week Three’s 20-10 W (Chargers) was the best with Fields at QB. Five-yard rushing TD and a 55-yard pass to Austin.
Some good games and contributions, but more consistency from Wilson, which hopefully remains true moving forward.
Here are defensive EPA results (DEPA):
It’s a much different AFC North picture, with typically much scarier and stronger defenses in past seasons. In 2024, it was much more up and down, with Pittsburgh clearly having the best total performances and no extremely poor outings, like Cincinnati, for example.
Pittsburgh’s defense started off hot, with a -0.35 DEPA (lower numbers are best), ranking 18th out of the 304 games this season. They limited Atlanta to just ten points in the season-opening win. TE Kyle Pitts caught their lone TD (red zone), charged to CB Beanie Bishop Jr., but the undrafted rookie took lumps early compared to where he is now.
While not as strong, Weeks Two and Three were positive DEPA games. They limited the opposition to six and ten points. So, the first three weeks of 2024 stifled teams to ten points or less. No touchdowns were allowed against the Broncos, followed by just one against the Chargers (27 yards, QB Justin Herbert-WR Quentin Johnston) charged to S Minkah Fitzpatrick.
The next two games were Pittsburgh’s only losses, including two negative DEPAs. Eerily similar 0.11 numbers against Indianapolis (27-24) and Dallas (20-17). Allowed three TDs to the Colts: RB Jonathan Taylor’s two-yard run and QB Joe Flacco’s two passing TDs (WR Josh Downs, TE Drew Ogletree) charged to CB Joey Porter Jr and Bishop. All three were red zone scores, an outlier performance to Pittsburgh’s top-five rank through much of 2024.
Two TDs allowed the next Week Five loss to the Cowboys, each in the fourth quarter. Explosive 22-yarder by RB Rico Dowdle and a four-yard game-winner to WR Jalen Tolbert, with S DeShon Elliott allowing both.
Week Six was a well above-average DEPA vs. Las Vegas in a 32-13 victory. Two touchdowns allowed: RB Alexander Mattison’s run, QB Aidan O’Connell-WR Kristian Wilkerson’s nine-yard pass. The game was well at hand, but once again allowed by Bishop.
Weeks Seven and Eight were very average against both New York clubs. Two red zone TDs against the Jets: RB Breece Hall and TE Tyler Conklin (Fitzpatrick). Just one from the Giants, a painful fourth quarter 45-yard double explosive TD (RB Tyrone Tracy), an outlier slippage from the normally strong run defense.
Last week, following their bye, Pittsburgh’s defense faced a potent Commanders offense head-on. They did several things well to keep them below 29.0 season points per game average in the 28-27 win. Prioritized QB Jayden Daniels rushing ability (only five yards), and didn’t allow a passing TD, impressively. They allowed three red zone rush TDs, though, each from one yard out.
That could be an issue against a similarly structured Baltimore offense, with Pittsburgh likely using a similar plan on QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson has also stepped it up as a passer, so how Pittsburgh’s pass defense fares will be interesting. They’ve been able to do more than most teams throughout Jackson’s career. But Baltimore added RB Derrick Henry, the king, a scary proposition, so that’s a problem.
Conversely, the Ravens’ defense hasn’t been as scary in 2024. 7-of-10 games have had negative DEPA numbers, including all three AFC North games and their loss to the struggling Browns. Weeks Two, Four, and Nine were their positive outings against the Raiders (26-23 L), Bills (35-10 W), and Broncos (41-10 W). Those wins highlight how scary they can be when both sides of the ball are humming.
Cincinnati has had some terrible games on defense. Their worst was Week Three against Washington (38-33 L), with a 0.52 DEPA that’s the NFL’s absolute worst through ten games, whoof. Weeks Five, Eight, and Ten were also poor against a tough Eagles offense (37-17 L). Both of Cincinnati’s division losses were to Baltimore (41-39 OT, 35-34 thriller last week). The Bengals losing record is largely on the defense.
The Browns haven’t been nearly as strong as in 2023 when they were a top defense in several regards. 4-of-9 above average DEPA’s: Weeks One, Two, Four, and Seven, so mostly early this season. They have a 1-3 record in those games, though (Cowboys, Jaguars, Raiders, and Bengals). Five below the line vs. the Giants, Commanders, Eagles, Ravens, and Chargers, with their worst against Philadelphia and a 1-4 record. Definitely on their offense though.
Next, success rates for NFL offenses and defenses from nflfastR for league-wide and season-average context, which is defined as EPA > 0 for each play:
Here, we see that Cleveland fares best in the AFC North in terms of average defensive success rate (39.7-sixth). Baltimore still stands out as the NFL’s best offense (51.1). The Browns have the NFL’s absolute worst 36.6 offensive success through Week 10. Cincinnati has a poor 47.0 on defense (29th). So, we see the context of why the Bengals and Browns have losing records.
Baltimore’s 42.1 defensive success rate (12th) makes for the only AFC North team above average on both sides of the ball. That’s one spot lower than Pittsburgh’s defense, with an 11th-ranked 41.7 success rate but a below-average 41.2 offensive success (20th).
While several things have improved with Wilson, his 40.1 success rate since taking over ranks 25th, pointing to a hopeful higher ceiling moving forward.
Now for a points view of offenses and defenses:
Case and point to the main difference with Wilson, scoring 26 or more points in his three games. That’s a 30.3 average compared to 20.7 in the first six games. 23.9 on the season ranks 12th, so encouraging after struggling on the scoreboard the last two seasons (18.1-26th, 17.9-28th).
The defense has been even better, allowing just 16.2 PPG (second-best), landing Pittsburgh as the only AFC North team above the mean in both. The scoreboard is obviously the all-important stat, and winning out here points to why they’re atop the AFC North.
All three divisional opponents rank below average in PPG on defense: Cleveland (23.7-21st), Baltimore (25.3-25th), and Cincinnati (26.2-26th). That will hopefully transpire similarly, boding well for Pittsburgh’s offense, which accounts for the bulk of their remaining games (6-of-8).
Here’s the rest of the division: Ravens (31.8-first), Cincinnati (27.0-sixth), Cleveland (16.4-29th). It will be fascinating to see how Pittsburgh’s defense fares overall, starting with their number two defense facing Baltimore’s number one offense next game.
Another key stat is turnovers:
Once again, the Steelers are the only AFC North team above the mean (comfortably) on both sides of the ball. Seven turnovers (fifth) and 16 takeaways (seventh) play a big part in their style and success, and they are fantastically in the top ten units in each.
Again, the rest of the AFC North landing below average on defense. Baltimore and Cincinnati each have ten (T-18th), while Cleveland has half (five), tying for least in the NFL. Knock on wood Pittsburgh’s offense can reap these benefits.
The division has been better at limiting turnovers on offense: Ravens (six,T-third), Bengals (10,T-seventh), Browns (12,T-16th). Pittsburgh’s seventh-ranked defense prides itself on that culture, though, and will have its sights on changing this narrative in divisional play.
Here are teams’ explosive plays:
Varied results. No AFC North team comfortably above the mean in each. Pittsburgh has the best balance: 34 offense (T-16th), 28 defense (T-sixth). Wilson’s deep ball prowess has been the best in the NFL in his three games, so being on the rise along with Pittsburgh limiting them is great news.
They are set to face the most explosive NFL offense next in Baltimore, though, with 49 explosive plays. These matchups have been lower scoring, though, and the Steelers defense will certainly have its hands full in trying to keep a lid on Jackson and a stronger supporting cast. Past success does lead to optimism, though.
Here’s how the rest of the AFC North has fared: Baltimore (49 OFF-first, 49 DEF-T-last), Cincinnati (31 OFF-T-21st, 26 DEF-T-third), Cleveland (22 OFF-31st, 45 DEF-29th). Extremely opposing numbers for the Ravens and Bengals, the former spread of best offense and worst defense staggering, while the latter has been far better on defense. Cleveland-just bad.
Now third down conversions:
I can get used to this. Pittsburgh is the only above average in both AFC North teams yet again. A 40.0 offensive 3DCR ranks 12th, and 34.8 on defense is 10th best. While those are good marks compared to the competition, hoping that improves, particularly on offense, for the rest of 2024.
Far ends of the spectrum for the rest of the division. Cincinnati (47.3) and Baltimore (47.2) are eerily strong on offense at third and fourth NFL ranks. That could be daunting in those matchups, hence my statement for the Steelers improving (fingers crossed). Pittsburgh’s offense could sustain drives, though, facing 29th and 30th-ranked third-down defenses to date.
Completely opposite for the Browns, who are the NFLs second-best third down defense (31.6), but tied for dead last on offense (28.7, yikes). Pittsburgh’s defense will hopefully dominate, while things could be tough on late downs for the offense.
Here are red zone numbers:
The Steelers land on the top left (better defense), and the rest of the AFC North on the bottom right (better offense). So, no team in the division is above average in each. Here are the numbers and ranks:
Baltimore: 76.7 OFF (first), 59.4 DEF (20th).
Cincinnati: 72.4 OFF (second), 71.9 (31st).
Cleveland: 56.3 OFF (13th), 63.0 DEF (24th).
Pittsburgh: 50.0 OFF (T-25th), 44.4 DEF (T-fourth).
For the first time in the article, the Steelers offense ranks last in the division. Encouraging, though, their foes are all below-average red zone defenses, so I am hoping and expecting an improvement in these matchups. Pittsburgh’s strong defensive number is great to see. The AFC North boasts all above-average red zone offenses, though, with Baltimore and Cincinnati sitting at first and second.
Daunting on paper and whichever teams fare better in the red zone will go a long way in the outcome of these important divisional games.
And a favorite here at Steelers Depot, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), which gauges the success of passing offenses and defenses:
Back to great news: Pittsburgh is the only divisional team above average in each. Wilson has helped the OANY/A improve, particularly with 10.0 and 8.72 numbers in his first two games. The Steelers now have a 6.7 OANY/A (12th), and even better 5.1 DANY/A (T-eighth). That is fantastic, considering its predictive qualities to playoff and Super Bowl aspirations.
As highlighted in my recent Week 10 ANY/A Stats, Baltimore’s far and away the best offense (9.8), Cincinnati ranks fifth (7.5), and Cleveland is an NFL worst (3.9). Similar to some earlier views, every divisional opponent is below average on defense: Cincinnati (T-22nd), Cleveland (7.0, 28th), and Baltimore (7.3, 29th). I Hope Pittsburgh’s offense thrives while limiting the Ravens and Bengals’ offense more than others have been able to.
Here’s a ranks recap to close:
So, Pittsburgh has clearly been the best-balanced AFC North team, encouragingly across all these crucial stats. The only ranks that are below average are offensive success and red zone, areas for hopeful improvement. The remaining schedule is tough, largely AFC North games, and teams with some scary abilities Pittsburgh can hopefully stymie the rest of the way.
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
