To blitz or not to blitz? That’s the question each defensive coaching staff faces each week. For nearly every game of 2024, DC Teryl Austin and the Pittsburgh Steelers have opted for the latter. They’re blitzing at a decade-low rate, trusting their front four to get home while protecting themselves in coverage. Will that change against Aaron Rodgers? There are reasons to blitz and reasons to play it safe.
Reasons To Blitz
Because Aaron Rodgers doesn’t move well. Not just because he’s 40 and in his 20th season but because he’s battled knee and leg injuries, missing practice, and limping around in games. The Jets’ offensive line has had its problems, and Rodgers has been beaten up this year.
Getting after him early can take New York out of their rhythm. If the offense picks it up, that could allow Pittsburgh to build an early lead and play from ahead instead of climbing back into things. And given that Pittsburgh hasn’t blitzed much this season, New York might be caught off-guard by a more aggressive approach. Sitting back and letting Rodgers slice and dice the secondary is also a worry. Rodgers still has pinpoint accuracy and can make high-level throws.
Rodgers is a smart veteran who wants to get the ball out of his hand, but he’s struggled against the blitz this season. He had a miserable time against the Minnesota Vikings in London, throwing three picks, including this pick-six, right into LB Andrew Van Ginkel’s hands against Brian Flores’ sim-pressure looks.
Against the blitz, the Jets are 15th in the league with a negative EPA against. By comparison, the Steelers are 11th with both teams being blitzed at about the same rate.
Finally, the Steelers last faced Rodgers in 2021 as a member of the Green Bay Packers. Per our charting, the Steelers blitzed 12 of 36 chances, 33.3 percent of the time. It came with great success. Of the 11 dropbacks (the other a scramble), Rodgers went just 3-of-11 for 23 yards and one sack, a quarterback rating of 39.6. That’s equivalent to throwing the ball into the ground.
Pittsburgh hasn’t blitzed much this year, but when they have, the rush has gotten home. When they blitz, the Steelers’ defense generates pressure 40.4 percent of the time. When they don’t, they’re getting pressure only 25.6 percent of the time.
Reasons Not To Blitz
Can the rush get home? Aaron Rodgers is getting the ball out of his hand as quickly as nearly any quarterback in football. Per NextGenStats, Rodgers snap-to-throw time is 2.55 seconds. That’s fourth-fastest in the NFL, only behind Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, and Andy Dalton. A blitz doesn’t work if the ball is out before the rush can even come close to hitting him.
It’s also not what has made Pittsburgh the second-best scoring defense this season. Don’t fix what’s not broken. The Steelers may want to stick with what’s working. They’ve had their share of miscommunication and blown coverages that could only be magnified by sending extra rushers.
Given the Jets’ talent at the skill positions, a top-three at wide receiver of Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Allen Lazard (tied for the NFL lead with five touchdowns), the Steelers want to ensure they have enough people in coverage. Blitzing leads to more one-on-one matchups and trusting your secondary, which has been good overall this season, to make the play. But it’s asking a lot against a quarterback of Rodgers’ caliber with these targets to throw at.
Alex Highsmith is also poised to return, boosting the team’s pass rush and giving them more confidence in their front four’s ability to get the job done.
What will Austin and the Steelers do? If the other games are any indication, they’ll sit back and play coverage. If that’s the plan, the rush has to get home, and Aaron Rodgers can’t be allowed to pick apart Pittsburgh’s zone coverage.
