As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 6 game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. The Pressure’s On Aidan O’Connell, Especially From D-Line
Figuratively and literally. Pittsburgh’s pass rush is hurting without Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith and the Raiders will focus all their energy on T.J. Watt. Still, the Steelers have to get home and pressure O’Connell, a second-year playing making the first start of 2024. Our pre-draft scouting report noted he struggles when pressured and the Steelers can get after him against a young o-line that’s dealt with a bit of injury.
But the Steelers must also get ahead and stop the Raiders’ run game. Force O’Connell to win this one without staying on-schedule. That’d be asking a lot out of him and should put Pittsburgh in position for a convincing victory.
2. George Pickens Bounces Back
It’s been a loud week for Pickens and for all the wrong reasons. No matter where you fall on the concern meter, he needs a good performance to quiet the critics, just as he did last year against the Cincinnati Bengals. This is a secondary the Steelers can throw on and Pickens should get the ball early, something the team did a poor job of in last week’s loss. I’d expect a different-looking game plan and box score this time around.
3. Brock Bowers Gets Bracketed
With Davante Adams out and Jakobi Meyers likely following suit, the Raiders don’t have much at receiver. That will make them even more reliant on rookie TE Brock Bowers, though he’s coming into this game leading the team in targets, receptions, yards, and big plays.
Pittsburgh should treat him like a receiver and bracket him on possession downs, the ones they’ve been losing far too often the past two games. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to put CB Joey Porter Jr. or FS Minkah Fitzpatrick on him if the situation calls for it. Bowers can’t run loose.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Pittsburgh Can’t Run On Raiders 5-2 Front
The Raiders’ statistically haven’t had a good run defense this season and losing star DT Christian Wilkins to a foot injury is a major blow. Still, they present some schematic challenges. Their 5-2 front they use on early downs, even against 11 personnel, is something the Steelers have had trouble having success against in recent years by other teams. Hard to get a runway going for someone like RB Najee Harris.
After two disappointing/underwhelming showings against the Colts and Cowboys, there’s no guarantee the Steelers will find their groove on the ground today. Though having Jaylen Warren and the same starting five for the first time in back-to-back games this year does help.
2. Raiders’ Offensive Speed Wins
The Raiders don’t have the firepower to pull off cohesive 15-play drives against the Steelers. They’re missing too much offensively. But hitting a big play can erase that need. There is some speed here with WR Tre Tucker and Bowers has been a YAC monster this season. Pittsburgh has been allowing the big play too often the last two games. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed more than the Steelers nine the last two weeks. Las Vegas will be searching for the big play against Pittsburgh’s defense.
3. Steelers Get Sloppy
Worry about Steelers beating Steelers. Turnovers, penalties, defensive communication continuing to struggle. It would be a Steelers-like thing to watch happen and a cause in the team’s losing streak. Pittsburgh is the better team. But that doesn’t always mean they win. Allowing the Raiders to hang around is a recipe for disaster.
Prediction
Steelers: 20
Raiders: 16
Season Prediction Record
(2-3, a three-game wrongness skid)
