If it’s felt like the Pittsburgh Steelers have gotten conservative on third-and-long, you’d be right. Despite their public confidence in QB Justin Fields, few teams this year have run the ball in passing situations like the Steelers. Sunday night’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys was a perfect example, handing off to RB Aaron Shampklin on 3rd and 8. He gained 5 yards and Pittsburgh kicked to tie the game at 3 points a piece, missing out on the chance to convert, get in the red zone, and take the lead.
It’s a theme of the season. Arthur Smith says there’s strategy. The numbers say they’re trying it. A lot.
This study is a little tricky with a couple of variables. First, I needed to eliminate QB scrambles. PFR’s Stathead services doesn’t offer an easy way to do that, meaning I had to manually take them out team-by-team so scrambles didn’t count as rushes. Big difference between a called and designed run versus a called pass where the quarterback takes off, especially with a QB like Justin Fields. He has two of them, and some teams, like the Cleveland Browns, have a bunch. QB Deshaun Watson is already up to six.
Second, there is a point where a third-and-long run call is “acceptable.” In those third-and-forever situations where a first down is hard to get and you’re playing for field position. Determining where that line is might be difficult, but in an attempt to be the most charitable to offensive coordinators, I broke the numbers down to a subset range of 3rd and 6-to-10 yards. Running on 3rd and 5, maybe you pick it up. Running on 3rd and 8 feels like the “give up” call. You could argue I should’ve made it to 3rd and 12, 3rd and 14, 3rd and 17, but I kept it to what rationally feels like “Why would the run it there?” downs and distances.
With all that in mind, here are the results. The teams who have run it the most on 3rd and 6-to-10, excluding QB scrambles.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers – 5
2. Indianapolis Colts – 4
2. Arizona Cardinals – 4
2. Green Bay Packers – 4
2. Philadelphia Eagles – 4
6. New Orleans Saints – 3
Everyone else has run it no more than twice in those moments. Six teams: the Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, and New York Jets haven’t called a single run in these situations.
Pittsburgh first did it in the season opener, a 3rd and 6 run to Cordarrelle Patterson for 2 yards, inching them closer to field goal range. Chris Boswell drilled a 57-yarder to open the team’s 2024 scoring and tie the game at 3, but Pittsburgh didn’t push for anything more manageable or to try to convert and keep the drive alive. They went back to it at the end of the Falcons game, a 3rd and 6 designed run for Fields that went nowhere and had them settle for a field goal, giving the Falcons the ball back one more time.
They did it again in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers, a 3rd and 8 run in the fourth quarter that was successful and helped close out the game. Against Dallas, it occurred twice. The aforementioned one to Shampklin followed by another Shampklin carry at the end of the first half.
What’s the takeaway? Breaking down the play-by-play offers context. Against Atlanta, they were looking to keep the clock going, though a more aggressive team may have chosen to pass, convert, and end the game right there. It’s a risk/reward as the Philadelphia Eagles experienced the following week against the Falcons, throwing late and incomplete and allowing a comeback. And against Dallas, the end-of-half run was inoffensive as the Steelers just wanted to take it to the break, backed up near their own end zone.
But without getting into the context of all 31 other teams, the Steelers are still on the high-end. These numbers are small, they always will be, and it’s not the reason why the offense has struggled. But it speaks to a conservative nature of this offense. Match field goals for field goals. Don’t take the sack that pushes you out of field goal range, as what happened to Fields against the Colts on a disastrous 20-plus yard sack and fumble. Trust Chris Boswell and the defense more than the quarterback to make a play. Even the Chargers game, while the run call was somewhat understandable, there was still four minutes left, and a punt would give LA some life.
There’s still at least two clear examples of “give up” runs, which is more than 20 teams who have one or fewer total without even considering the context of their situations.
Without getting into the nitty gritty of past years, the Steelers didn’t have this philosophy before. In 2022 and 2023, the Steelers only had 13 such rushes, seventh-fewest, and that’s without me going through the line-by-line to take out scrambles for each team. You can bet the number was even lower. And in the Roethlisberger/Tomlin era, 2007 to 2021, they had 98, sixth-fewest (again, without me reviewing and pulling out QB scrambles).
It’s a number and approach to watch going forward. With five weeks and not a lot of data, it’s difficult to draw conclusions. But we know this is a conservative offense that is risk-adverse in many key moments. And it leads to them “punting” on third down more than anyone else.
