A 2-4 road team is not often the favorite over a 4-2 club. The New York Jets weren’t in that spot at the beginning of the week. But after the New York Jets acquired WR Davante Adams, and perhaps because of the Pittsburgh Steelers QB switch to Russell Wilson, the Jets are now the betting favorite tonight in Acrisure Stadium.
As we noted on Monday night, shortly after the Jets’ loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Steelers were the opening line favorites at 1-point. It’s not a major margin, but favorites nonetheless.
Those odds changed early in the week and have held since. The driving factor seems to be New York finally landing WR Davante Adams, acquired Tuesday morning (the line seemed to shift a few hours before, likely some insiders who knew the deal was done given that Aaron Rodgers found out around 1 AM Tuesday). And they’ve held ever since, 1.5-point favorites heading into Sunday night’s kickoff.
It’s only the second time Pittsburgh has been underdogs this season, beating the favored Atlanta Falcons in the season opener. In fact, the Steelers have won their last three games as dogs, beating the Seattle Seahawks and Cincinnati Bengals as part of their late-season comeback in 2023. Two of those games came on the road, while the only home contest came against the Bengals, QB Mason Rudolph’s first start that ended in spectacular fashion for him and the team.
Narrowing it down further, the Steelers with home-field advantage in primetime action are rarely underdogs. Of the team’s 17 such games since 2016, it’s only happened once—last season against the Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh came out on top, 26-22. In the Tomlin era, this marks the sixth such time, the Steelers are 2-3 in those games. They lost to the Baltimore Ravens in overtime in 2015, beat the Bengals but lost to the Chicago Bears in 2013, and lost to the Ravens in 2012.
Like much of the noise this week, none of it matters once the ball’s kicked off. But if the Steelers come out on top, Vegas will be reminded not to doubt Steelers Nation at home under the lights.
