Even as he continues to dance around the question, we know Russell Wilson will get the start tonight against the New York Jets. Truthfully, it’s one of the riskiest and most controversial decisions Mike Tomlin’s made in his 17-year head coaching tenure. To many, the “safe” and the expected move would’ve been to stick with QB Justin Fields. Popular and effective for a 4-2 Steelers team, no one would’ve batted an eye if that was Tomlin’s choice.
Instead, he’s going with Wilson. Why? I boil it down to three reasons.
1. Justin Fields Was Playing His Worse Ball As Russell Wilson Became Fully Healthy
As a passer, Fields has had his two worst games the past two weeks against the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders. He still made plays with his legs, and Pittsburgh enjoyed its largest win of the season against the Raiders, but Fields wasn’t as sharp as he was early in the year. Especially in the Raiders game, one that we discussed going in might be the final exam in determining whether or not Fields would continue starting.
The numbers are obvious enough: just 14 completions for 145 yards and zero touchdowns, but the tape was worse. His accuracy was at its lowest, his decision-making was questionable, and I truly think he could’ve been benched for the start of the second half had his late-second quarter interception not been wiped out by a roughing the passer. Tomlin even seemed to imply as much in his Tuesday press conference, quipping you could’ve seen both quarterbacks play in last week’s game after being asked if both quarterbacks could be seen against the Jets.
I would still argue the totality of Fields’ play through six games was enough to keep him in the lineup. But it’s hard to deny his play was waning or, at least, wobbling. Had he been playing the way he did between Weeks 2-4, there would’ve been a better chance for Fields to stick.
2. Mike Tomlin Is Taking Chance On Steelers Getting To Next Level Under Russell Wilson
This and the following reasons are more theoretical and tougher to prove. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016, and it’s gotta be eating away at Tomlin and this organization. Post-Ben, the issue with the Steelers is that they remain a tough-mudding team. Great defense, a good running game, cutting down possessions, winning with special teams, and slogging out a 17-13 win.
To put that point in perspective, the Steelers have won 12 regular-season games since 2022, scoring at most 20 points. No other team is in double-digits, and only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ nine wins come close. The rest of the league? They don’t have more than six, meaning Pittsburgh doubles 30 other NFL clubs. Bonkers.
The good news? That gets you into the playoffs. The bad news? It’s not a recipe to win once there. As shown by Pittsburgh struggling with top-tier quarterbacks scoring early and often, putting the Steelers in holes a ground-and-pound approach can’t dig themselves out of.
And it’s where the Steelers still seemed to stand this season, even if arguably a little better than the last two seasons. They were getting better quarterback play. Fields is a better passer and obviously a more effective runner than Kenny Pickett or Mitch Trubisky. But was it going to be just a slightly improved version, a scoring offense ranked 20th instead of 26th, of the same model? Fields is able to get this team into the playoffs but not over the hump.
Tomlin’s calculation is Wilson gives them a better chance to be a more potent passing offense. To win a game where “play ball control” isn’t good enough. The expected counter-argument is Wilson still isn’t good enough to get into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. And that is true. But I’m betting Tomlin is hoping to get more than what the Steelers have gotten and, at the least, recognizing the Steelers’ current path was too similar to the one they’ve been taking and was going to end in the same one-and-done result. Doing something different at least gives the chance of winning a different way.
3. Believer In Football Justice, Mike Tomlin Feels Obligated To Play Russell Wilson
This one requires the most guesswork of the three. But Tomlin believes in Football Justice—the mythology of the game. He’s loyal, often to a fault, and I think he feels obligated to give Wilson a shot.
After all, Wilson was Pittsburgh’s first choice. They coveted him and didn’t even believe they would land him. Fields only became an option once Kenny Pickett’s trade request was granted. The Steelers’ plan was to go into the season with Wilson and Pickett.
And when Wilson flew into Pittsburgh to have a day-long meeting with Tomlin, where the two evidently immediately connected, I imagine the conversation revolved around what the pair could do together. A vision of winning. The Steelers breaking their playoff drought. Wilson turning his career around after two difficult years in Denver, failing to make the playoffs, and getting hammered by the local and national media, not to mention an icy relationship with his head coach.
Wilson had options – the Giants and Raiders – and still chose the Steelers for a one-year, minimum deal (Denver’s on the hook for almost all his salary, but still, Pittsburgh was the benefactor of paying nothing for him).
If Wilson sits on the bench all year, he’s a soon-to-be 36-year-old quarterback who spent two middling years in Denver followed by sitting in Pittsburgh as the No. 2. His days of being viewed as a starter would probably be over. And I think Tomlin feels that.
So Wilson will get a chance to show if he can be the quarterback he thinks he is, and Tomlin signed him to be. If not, there could still be time to switch back to Fields, messy as that is, and make a late-season playoff push. Pittsburgh was 7-7 and on a three-game losing streak entering Week 16 last year, pivoting to their third-starting quarterback. And they still made the playoffs.
Is this a good reason to start Wilson? No. And it probably isn’t Tomlin’s main reason. The other two weigh more. But there’s a part of me that suspects Tomlin owes Wilson the chance to start, and Fields’ play wasn’t so overwhelmingly good to cement his spot in the starting lineup.
Final Thoughts
No matter the rationale, all or none I said above, this is Tomlin’s decision. And it could go wrong in a lot of ways. If Pittsburgh loses either of their next two games, Tomlin will come under intense criticism for starting Wilson, even if the losses aren’t primarily his fault.
Every incompletion, every three-and-out, every missed moment from Wilson and this offense will be scrutinized. He’s a veteran and can handle it, and Tomlin’s job isn’t on the line here, all the more reason he can take this risk. However, it will mark one of the most examined moments of his coaching tenure.
