When reported surfaced that the Pittsburgh Steelers plan to start Russell Wilson over Justin Fields Sunday night against the New York Jets, the hot takes quickly followed. Those in the national media in particular can hardly restrain their flagellation in disgust over such a heinously criminal decision. But are the Steelers actually hurting themselves if they switch to Wilson? Former Pro Football Focus analyst Steve Palazzolo is pumping the brakes, preferring to wait and see.
“I think the reality is they’re probably very similar as quarterbacks right now. But I also think there’s a chance that Russ could be better”, he said on the Check the Mic podcast. “I think we’re a little skewed by how low our expectations have been for Justin Fields after what we saw in Chicago”.
Palazzolo readily conceded that Fields is more accurate, reads defenses better, and makes fewer mistakes this season. But he argues that we are viewing him against a negative curve and thus exaggerating his improvement. And generally speaking, Russell Wilson is better in all of these departments.
“It’s not like there’s advanced metrics or traditional metrics where Justin Fields is top 10 in anything”, he pointed out after citing a variety of different numbers, including QBR. “You’re not benching a top-10 quarterback. But you’re bringing in Russell Wilson, who, assuming he’s not rusty here, is probably a similar-level quarterback”.
While Wilson historically has been a better passer and Fields a better athlete, are the two roughly as good? They have different strengths and weaknesses, but how do we evaluate the differences in a quantitative way? Generally speaking, in the NFL, the tie goes to the better passer, even with the run game on the rise.
Palazzolo, for example, pointed out that moving to Russell Wilson could improve the Steelers’ ability to get the ball to George Pickens and to push the ball down the field more consistently. They are averaging under 200 passing yards per game with Justin Fields, ranking 20th in points, 28th in yards.
“I don’t hate it as a move”, he said of the Steelers’ reported plans to start Russell Wilson over Justin Fields. “I don’t have any hot takes here. But the Steelers are 4-2 on the back of Justin Fields playing better than he did in Chicago, generally taking care of the ball (though that was worse the last couple weeks), but because the defense has been fantastic for Pittsburgh overall”.
The Steelers signed Russell Wilson to start, but he hasn’t had the opportunity to start yet. Since injuring his calf at the opening of training camp, the team has navigated a path it never intended. At some point, I’m sure, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers want to know what they are missing. And I suppose they are going to try to find out beginning this weekend. How many can manage to withhold judgement at least until then?
