Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers sitting atop the AFC North at the midway point of the season, the analytic models and oddsmakers still don’t like their chances of holding off the Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh is 6-2, Baltimore 5-3, but ESPN’s projections give the Ravens a significantly better chance of finishing in first by season’s end.
Per their 2024 NFL Power Index, here are each team’s chances of winning the AFC North.
AFC North Division Win Odds
1. Baltimore Ravens – 56.8%
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – 39.4%
3. Cincinnati Bengals – 3.2%
4. Cleveland Browns – 0.6%
Oddsmakers feel the same. Per Pro Football Talk’s Michael David Smith, the Ravens are still viewed as favorites with odds ranging from -165 to -190 while the Steelers sit around +180.
It’s quickly becoming a two-team AFC North race. The Browns, despite their upset win of the Ravens, have essentially no shot to come back from 2-6 and make the playoffs, let alone capture the divisional crown. The Bengals suffered a crucial loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, dropping them to 3-5 and halting the momentum they were showing while climbing back into the AFC picture.
Baltimore is one of the AFC’s top teams with a great rushing attack, run defense, and QB Lamar Jackson’s quality play. But the Ravens’ pass defense is poor, 32nd in yards allowed, 29th in yards per attempt, and tied-last in passing touchdowns allowed, and they’ve struggled to close out games in the fourth quarter. The Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers made fourth-quarter comebacks to turn near-blowout wins into close calls.
Ultimately, what only matters is how the Steelers perform during their divisional gauntlet beginning in Week 11. They’re one of two NFL teams yet to play a divisional contest, joining the Chicago Bears. The Steelers’ first AFC North matchup will come in Week 11 when they host the Ravens on Nov. 17. It’ll be their first of four-straight divisional games through Week 14. From there, they’ll travel to Baltimore in Week 16 before finishing their season by hosting the Cincinnati Bengals.
Though the games are seemingly always close, Pittsburgh has had the best handle on the AFC North. The Steelers have beaten the Ravens in six of their last seven meetings, muting Jackson better than any other defense. Pittsburgh’s also finished .500 or better in the division every season since 2010, easily football’s longest such streak.
Even if the Steelers go 3-3 in the AFC North, that gives them nine wins with three other games to play. Win two of those and the Steelers finish the year 11-6, guaranteed to get them in the playoffs and a good chance to win the AFC North, something they haven’t done since 2020.
