With Week 4 in the books, I wanted to provide a favorite stat at Steelers Depot: Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A). ANY/A is Passing yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked).
Here is a visual for offenses (OANY/A) and defenses (DANY/A) through four games:
Following the Pittsburgh Steelers first loss of the season, they actually land above the mean in both data points. Defensively, the first three games were stellar, but they laid a stinker against the Colts last week that was hopefully an outlier, which I believe to be true.
Pittsburgh’s defense now has a 4.9 DANY/A on the season, still a very respectable number that ties for ninth in the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. The list of defenses that rank higher are: Bears (4.0), Bills (4.0), Broncos (4.1), Jets (4.2), Saints (4.3), Vikings (4.4), Bucs (4.8), and Chargers (4.8).
More specifically, Pittsburgh has allowed 698 passing yards (T-eighth least), four TDs (T-11th least), on 111 pass attempts (sixth-least), generating 11 sacks (T-13th), and four interceptions (T-fifth). So, limiting TDs and creating more sacks are the areas that can stand to improve the most through four games.
The offense has trended upward each week, particularly in Week 4. with the passing game having to step up with the unusual defensive regression. The Steelers offense now has a 6.5 OANY/A, which ties for 12th with next week’s opponent the Dallas Cowboys.
Offenses that rank stronger are: Bills (8.5), 49ers (8.2), Vikings (8.1), Ravens (7.9), Saints (7.5), Commanders (7.5), Bengals (7.3), Packers (7.2), Lions (6.9), Cardinals (6.7), and Bucs (6.7).
Pittsburgh’s offense has 109 pass attempts (eighth-least), 757 yards (22nd), three TDs (T-26th), and only one interception (T-first), but taken ten sacks (T-15th). Limiting interceptions has clearly been a strength, one of nine teams with just one pick, and have leaned on quality over quantity in attempts.
Average in number of sacks, but yardage lost particularly last week was painfully inexcusable. One was explosive yardage lost and ended in a turnover to boot. Surely dinged the OANY/A number in Week 4, which was still above-average, pointing to an encouraging passing day from QB Justin Fields.
On the season, their 6.5 OANY/A is right at the healthy target line that our historical research has suggested is conducive to winning and playoff success. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough for victory last week, but an encouraging positive trend that hopefully remains true moving forward.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the weekly results, starting with offenses:
The visual points to the positive trend each game that I mentioned earlier, with the biggest leap last week. Here are the ANY/A numbers per game: Week One vs. ATL (5.32), Week Two vs. DEN (5.91), Week Three vs. LAC (6.09), and Week Four vs. IND (7.95).
Yardage was the biggest leap for the Steelers last game, getting them above the ideal 6.5 OANY/A number (blue line). Also part of the positive trend is having a passing TD each of the last three weeks, which hopefully continues to get back in the winners circle.
Now for defenses:
Steady decline for Pittsburgh’s defense, unfortunately. Here are the per week numbers: Week One vs. ATL (2.39), Week Two vs. DEN (3.81), Week Three vs. LAC (5.0), and Week Four vs. IND (8.28).
Here we get a sense of the earlier points, with the first three games being more than acceptable, and falling off a cliff (to their standards thus far) in Week 4. Pittsburgh’s defense has to be pissed after allowing two passing touchdowns in particular, half of their TDs allowed this season, along with no interceptions (four in 2024).
They did have two sacks, but star T.J. Watt was virtually taken out of the game, especially compared to his typical impact. Interceptions have fallen off, with two in each of the first two games, and none in Weeks Three or Four.
Here’s to hoping those things get back to elite status for Pittsburgh’s defense, along with the offense continuing to trend positively.
To close, here’s a table of the 2023 regular season OANY/A results, with team names in green making the postseason. The entire row is colored for teams with a positive differential (OANY/A – DANY/A), a DANY/A six or below, and an OANY/A of 6.5 or better. Last, it’s sorted by differential with the goal of showing the most balanced teams:
While last week wasn’t the outcome Pittsburgh wanted, we can see their 1.6 differential still fares admirably, tying for eighth-best through four games. It’s still early, but that is encouraging moving forward.
