As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 1 regular season opener against the Atlanta Falcons.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Pittsburgh’s Front Seven Wins The Day
The Falcons are going to want to run the ball with their top-ten pick Bijan Robinson in his sophomore season. They don’t want to put the game solely in the hands of Kirk Cousins in his first game back from his torn Achilles against this Steelers’ pass rush.
Pittsburgh’s front seven, their d-line and linebackers, is the strength of their entire team. So they gotta play like it. If they can win the line of scrimmage and make Atlanta one-dimensional and off-schedule, Cousins will be in for a long day. Their passing game will be more open and potent than last year but it’s not enough to carry Atlanta against this defense.
2. George Pickens Is Big Man On Campus
I love the “big-man” matchups at receiver and corner in this one. For the Steelers’ defense, CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Drake London. But offensively, the one to highlight is WR George Pickens against CB AJ Terrell. Both are big and strong and excellent at what they do. Terrell is one of the most underrated corners in the league.
The Steelers’ clear No. 1 option, Pickens has to make big plays in the pass game. That can be winning vertically and combat catches, his specialty, but also YAC and winning at all levels of the field. Assuming Justin Fields starts, he’ll look his way a ton. Those two had a strong connection in training camp when Russell Wilson was sidelined with his first calf injury.
3. It’s A Justin Fields Homecoming
From the Atlanta area, hopefully it’s a homecoming for Justin Fields. A big test out of the gate when the team’s intent was to have Fields start on the bench and be used situationally. That doesn’t appear the case anymore. Fields is a big-threat with his legs and Pittsburgh should lean on that in this game with read-options, more RPOs, and designed QB runs.
As a passer, he made progress in training camp but has to show more in-stadium. He can’t get baited by the veteran safety duo of Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons into throwing an ugly interception. Fields must take care of the ball and not get more passes batted down at the line of scrimmage.
He can do all those things and if he does, there’s a chance he doesn’t give up his starting job. What an opportunity to shine.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Sloppy Steelers Return
Always worried about ugly football to start the year especially for a Pittsburgh team on the road for Week 1 with new, young, and moving parts on offense. Starts with the snap. There were too many poor exchanges and too much miscommunication in the preseason. That can be forgiven in August, not September.
Beyond that, the tackles can’t get called for the illegal formation penalties the NFL is cracking down on. The defense has to communicate well and not blow assignments and there can’t be special teams messes that cost this team yards and points. Week 1 is more about taking care of your business moreso than it is out-scheming or out-classing your opponent. Fewest mistakes win the opener.
2. Keeanu Benton Gets Glued To Bench
Benton has looked like a stud in the preseason and enters his sophomore year as the starter. He’s going to play. But the Falcons will be an 11 personnel (three-receiver) looks that new OC Zac Robinson, formerly of the LA Rams, brings. That means Pittsburgh will be in their 2-4-5 nickel a heavy amount. Normally, that means Cam Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi will soak up a lot of those snaps but the Steelers must be mindful rotating Benton it.
I’m not overly concerned Benton will be forgotten but there were times last year where he was playing far too little and not seeing enough action in sub-packages. Want to be able to check the box and make sure he’s getting roughly one-third of the nickel snaps this season.
3. O-Line Can’t Handle Falcons’ Creative Rush Looks
Pittsburgh has two offensive linemen making their first career start along with Broderick Jones in his second season. On the road against a new defense the team doesn’t have much tape on. What we have seen has Atlanta following most of the league with creative and stressful looks on third down. Dual three-techs to test the guard’s edges and force tackles to win 1-on-1. Or 3×1 formations with three rushers to one side, running games and twists off it. This o-line has to be ready.
Prediction
Steelers: 23
Falcons: 17
