As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 2 contest against the Denver Broncos.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Run Defense Strains Broncos Offense
The formula to beat the Atlanta Falcons translates well to the Denver Broncos. Stop the run, create “and long” situations, and put the heat on rookie QB Bo Nix. Denver’s offense got nothing on the ground in their Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks and they’re in for another rest this weekend.
Pittsburgh’s front seven should be able to overwhelm at the point of attack while RB Javonte Williams isn’t at the caliber Bijan Robinson was last week. Don’t let RB Jaleel McLaughlin find space and Pittsburgh can put Denver behind the eight ball, allowing their defense to attack on third down.
2. Other Wide Receivers Make A Play
The Steelers still need WR George Pickens to make plays in the passing game, though he draws a tough matchup against the Broncos’ CB Patrick Surtain II. But another wide receiver has to provide something, especially against rookie CB Riley Moss, who was picked on last weekend. Against Atlanta, the rest of the non-Pickens wide outs caught two passes for 8 yards.
They don’t need to lead the team or be the hero. But even one play could be the difference in a close game. A chunk catch by Calvin Austin III. A clutch chain-moving grab from Van Jefferson. And the collective group, Pickens included, need to block better.
3. Corliss Waitman Hangs With Riley Dixon
Special teams won the day for Pittsburgh in Week 1. They’ll be tested without P Cameron Johnston, lost for the season due to a knee injury. Waitman is familiar with Denver having punted for the Broncos previously. But the Broncos have a weapon in P Riley Dixon, who had a 65-yard punt downed at the 1 that set up a safety last weekend.
In that thin Mile High air, there could be some booming kicks. Would Pittsburgh give Boswell to try a career-long of 60 yards? Maybe.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. QB Bo Nix Scrambles To Daylight
Nix looked every bit a rookie in his debut last week but he showed the ability to scramble and make plays with his legs. As a rookie, you’re just looking to survive and make the next play. Against the Steelers’ aggressive rush, Nix may be using his legs a lot to create. Pittsburgh’s rush and coverage have to be aware and can’t let him pick up yards in key moments to keep drives alive. It’s a different element than what they faced last week in Kirk Cousins.
2. History Repeats Itself
On paper, Pittsburgh has a stronger roster than Denver. But history isn’t on the Steelers’ side. Including the playoffs, the Steelers are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Denver. Mike Tomlin is 0-3 all-time against Sean Payton. And only once in the last six seasons has Pittsburgh a season 2-0, their 11-0 start to 2020.
Playing in Denver’s elevation isn’t easy and something Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt have discussed. There is a true home advantage for Denver here.
3. Steelers Offense Is Again Inefficient
Pittsburgh controlled the ball last week. But they did little to put the game away. Despite over 35:00 of offense and seven trips across midfield, the Steelers failed to find the end zone and relied on K Chris Boswell to make six field goals. That keeps the game close and the score down. And you let any team hang around, they could win it late.
Prediction
Steelers: 20
Broncos: 18
Steelers Season Prediction Record
1-0
