While the sample size is small, there’s one notable takeaway from the Pittsburgh Steelers’ goal-line session during Sunday’s physical padded practice. Jaylen Warren was the lead runner for the period. Over the six plays the offense ran from the 1, Warren received two carries. Both came with the starting offense, the first carry of the period and the final one when Mike Tomlin put in the starters on both sides of the ball. On the final rep, Warren found the end zone to save a little face for a defense that won most of the reps.
To be clear, Najee Harris saw work here, too. He scored on his lone carry, diving over the goal line and into the end zone. He’s had a good camp, and Harris has done nothing wrong that would warrant taking away goal-line touches.
But like most things in Arthur Smith’s system, he prefers to rotate people and get everyone the ball. Especially in the red zone. Involved as Warren has been in the offense the past two seasons, his goal-line carries have been limited. Per Pro Football Reference, here’s the number of carries for Harris and Warren at or inside the 5-yard line across 2022 and 2023.
Inside 5-Yard Line Carries (2022-2023)
Najee Harris: 23
Jaylen Warren: 7
In context, Warren hasn’t been super effective down low. Only two of his seven runs could be deemed “successful.” He has just one touchdown, and four carries have gone for negative yardage. But even those figures come with noise, a 5-yard loss against the Ravens in last year’s finale coming on a failed jet play that’s hard to blame Warren for.
But Warren still brings value. A low center of gravity, a powerful runner, and statistically better on man/gap schemes that might be more common down near the goal line, even in Smith’s zone-based system. Warren is as viable of a runner down near the end zone as Harris and Smith’s carries between the two could reflect that.
Through two seasons, Warren has only five rushing touchdowns. Of the 53 players with at least 200 carries over that span, only seven have fewer rushing scores. And only one of Warren’s touchdowns have come inside 10 yards, a 2-yard score against the Arizona Cardinals in 2023.
To put things in perspective, Warren’s seven carries inside the 5-yard line are as many as Russell Wilson and one fewer than Kenny Pickett. Third-string running back Cordarrelle Patterson also has more with 10 over the last two years.
Under Smith, the Falcons distributed the ball. Sometimes to a frustrating level. Last year, Tyler Allgeier had more such carries (six) than first rounder Bijan Robinson (three). In 2022, Allgeier and Patterson had nearly an even split, 10 to 8. And in 2021, RB Mike Davis and Patterson each led the way with 8.
Knowing how heavy Pittsburgh wants to lean on the ground game, Warren should be more involved. Either because Harris has shouldered the load throughout the drive and Warren can serve as fresh legs or just because Warren can ram his way over the goal line, it wouldn’t be surprising to see an even split of goal-line carries between Harris and Warren in 2024. Instead of Harris more than tripling Warren’s number (and in 2023, more than doubling it).
Ideally, the Steelers have flat out more red zone opportunities and goal-line chances. Since 2022, Pittsburgh has just 81 total offensive snaps, tied for 23rd in the NFL. They do have a high concentration of running plays, but a stronger offense should still lead to more chances for everyone. The committee approach between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren has faded around the goal line, Harris serving as the team’s lead back. That might change under Arthur Smith, one of the many differences the team can expect under his leadership.
