We all know that the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to run the ball a ton this year.
The addition of Brandon Aiyuk would change that little bit, but Pittsburgh didn’t hire Arthur Smith to run the air raid offense, that’s for sure.
Last year, there was a bit of a 1A, 1B situation in the backfield. Najee Harris got the bulk of the work with 255 carries compared to Jaylen Warren at 149. Many project the split will be similar in 2024, with Harris receiving the majority of carries and Warren getting more of the receiving work.
However, Derrik Klassen of The Athletic, sees Harris getting a lot more of the work than in 2023. He shared a bold prediction on The Athletic Football Show.
“I think Najee Harris leads the league in rushing by 200 yards,” Klassen said. “Arthur Smith wants the big man to run the ball. Look at all of the guys that he’s given a ton of carries to, whether it was Tyler Allgeier or Derrick Henry. He’s going to give the big man the ball. If this young offensive line can at least be an above-average unit and if Darnell Washington can be a useful piece, they are going to give the ball to Najee Harris, he’s going to get enough volume. I think Najee Harris is way better than people think.”
This feels like an absurd claim just based on my gut reaction, but let’s break it down to see if it’s possible.
Najee Harris had 1,035 yards last season on his 255 carries for 4.1 yards per carry. For context, Christian McCaffrey led the league in rushing at 1,459 yards. For Harris to pass him, he would have needed 356 carries at his efficiency, an additional 101 carries. To pass him by the 200-yard claim, he would have needed 401 carries, which would have been sixth all time. Derrick Henry led the league with just 280 carries last season.
So that route feels pretty impossible, but what happens if Harris increases his efficiency due to better offensive line play? Let’s pencil him in for 300 carries. That would have led the league last year by 20, but he had 307 as a rookie. With 300 carries, he would have needed a 5.5 YPC to get to 1,659 yards. Doesn’t feel possible when you look at his season averages of 3.8, 3.9, and 4.1.
There could be some perfect storm scenario where Najee Harris gets a lot more efficient, gets a lot more carries and it’s a down year for other running backs. But beyond going three for three there, I don’t think this claim is in the realm of realism.
