For the first time in 88 years, every team in a division finished the 2023 season with a record over .500. The AFC North sent three teams to the playoffs with the Cincinnati Bengals the lone team left out. It wasn’t possible to send all four teams to the playoffs until 2020 when they expanded the playoff format to seven teams per conference. Mathematically, that is a tricky feat to pull off, but the 2024 version of the AFC North might have the best chance at making more history.
“I do think this is the division that has the best chance of being the first ever to put all four of its teams in the postseason. (To be clear, I am not predicting that this will happen, merely saying this is the division with the best chance),” Graziano wrote via ESPN this morning in his annual preseason division rankings.
ESPN’s FPI system is the foundation of his division rankings, but he reserves the right to reorder things as he sees fit. For example, FPI called the AFC North the fourth-best division before the start of the 2023 season, but Graziano placed it second. We will give him a break for having the AFC East as the top division last year given the injury to Aaron Rodgers, but he was right to move the AFC North up in his rankings.
He didn’t need to go against the grain of the Football Power Index this year. He agrees with the numbers that the AFC North deserves the top spot. It is the only division that doesn’t have a single team with a negative FPI rating heading into the season.
Given the circumstances of the 2023 season, the AFC North should be more competitive than ever in 2024. Last year, Lamar Jackson was the only starting quarterback standing by the end of the season. Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, and Kenny Pickett all suffered injuries throughout the season that forced backups into action. Even with those circumstances, the combined record of the division was 43-25. Three teams had double-digit win totals, and the Baltimore Ravens were the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
This year will be a unique challenge. The Steelers, Browns, and Ravens all have among the hardest strengths of schedule in the league. According to Sharp Football Analysis, they hold three of the four most difficult schedules in the NFL.
The FPI as the teams within the division ranked in the below order.
1. Baltimore Ravens: 4.8 FPI Rating (3rd in NFL)
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 3.3 FPI Rating (7th)
3. Cleveland Browns: 0.5 FPI Rating (14th)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.0 FPI Rating (17th)
The last time the Steelers finished at the bottom of their division was all the way back in 1988 when they finished 5-11 behind the Bengals, Browns, and Tennessee Titans.
“If anyone but Mike Tomlin were coaching the Steelers, I’d be a lot lower on them,” Graziano wrote. “The FPI ranks them as the 19th-best offense in the league, which feels a little bit generous based on what we’ve seen from quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields so far in camp.”
The two preseason games played haven’t exactly boosted the optimism for the 2024 Steelers, but there are still plenty of reasons to be excited for the team. The offense looks like it is still a work in progress, but that was to be expected with a young offensive line, two new quarterbacks, and a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith.
