Pittsburgh Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt is a sack machine. Since entering the NFL, he has led the league in sacks three times and has only finished with less than 10 twice: his rookie year (seven) and his injury-plagued 2022 season (5.5). In fact, if you take out the 2022 season where Watt played only 10 games and was clearly still recovering from his injury after he returned, Watt has averaged 15.1 sacks per year.
For the betting folks out there, this means it might be a great idea to take the over on Watt’s line for sacks this year. According to BetOnline, Watt’s line is set at 13.5. In fairness to the sports books, Watt has averaged 13.78 sacks per season, but that’s if you include his injury-riddled 2022 season. It would seem that 13.5 is a fair line, but assuming Watt stays healthy he should shatter that line. It should also be noted that Watt is the favorite to lead the league in sacks this season at +400.
Last season, Watt tallied a league-leading 19 sacks and has shown no signs of slowing down. Even with injuries on the defensive line last year to DT Cameron Heyward, Watt was still able to produce and get to the quarterback. Unless Watt gets injured this season or takes an unprecedented step back, the line of 13.5 seems low. In fact, the last time he finished under 13.5 in a healthy year was 2018, his sophomore season.
What could help Watt beat that number is the development of DT Keeanu Benton. Benton showed flashes last season and should see more playing time this year. If he can take over a starting role next to Heyward and takes a second-year leap in play, it could lead to an incredible defensive line for Pittsburgh and make it be even harder for opponents to double team Watt. More one-on-one opportunities for Watt could make his life much easier.
On the flip side, one thing that potentially hurt Watt’s numbers is his pass-rush partner, EDGE Alex Highsmith. Highsmith is a very underrated pass rusher and last season he was a little unlucky to only finish with seven sacks. Highsmith could finish with 10-plus sacks this year and eat some numbers away from Watt. Then again, Highsmith can continue to increase his numbers without hurting Watt’s.
Given Highsmith’s play last season he probably should’ve had a few more sacks. With him continuing to grow as a player, his sack total should increase this season. Benton and Heyward should also add sacks to their numbers given second-year growth for Benton and assuming an injury-free season for Heyward.
With those three players likely improving on their sack totals next year, could that mean fewer sacks for Watt or more sacks for the team? That is what makes the line of 13.5 interesting. If you think this will take sacks away from Watt, then this line is very fair and could even be challenging. If you think it just means the team will tally more sacks, then it should not affect Watt’s numbers much, if at all. In fact you can argue it may even improve his numbers. The other factor that could work against Watt is injuries, but assuming he’s healthy, it’s a number he should go over.
Personally, I feel the line is low for Watt. But maybe Vegas knows something I don’t.
