T.J. Watt’s career arc has been nothing short of extraordinary through his first seven seasons in the league. He has already re-written the Pittsburgh Steelers’ record books—and even the NFL’s record books—in multiple ways. He leads the Steelers in all-time sacks, tied the single-season NFL record for sacks at 22.5, and is the first player to lead the league in sacks in three separate seasons. Barring injury, he should blow right past the 100-sack mark in 2024 and continue to set himself apart from many notable pass rushers throughout NFL history.
He is turning 30 years old this season, and history indicates that it could be his best chance to bring home a second Defensive Player of the Year honor. That would make him one of just nine players to win the award more than once and put him in even more rarified air than he already is. Only four players have won the DPOY award while 31 years or older. The 2024 season could be his best chance, though I wouldn’t doubt Watt’s ability to do something few people have accomplished.
The Steelers went from having one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2023 to one of the hardest in 2024. I dove into offensive tackle grades from Pro Football Focus to determine the difficulty of Watt’s matchups this year.
Lining up primarily on the defensive left side, Watt typically goes against the opposing teams’ right tackles. His average matchup last year was against a right tackle with a 63.6 overall grade from PFF and a 61.8 pass-blocking grade. Below are the projected starters he is scheduled to go against in 2024 and their PFF grades from a year ago.
| Team | Projected Right Tackle | Overall PFF Grade | Pass Block PFF Grade | Sacks Allowed | Pass Pro Snaps |
Pass Pro Snaps Per Sack Allowed
|
| Atlanta Falcons | Kaleb McGary | 75.5 | 69.5 | 4 | 478 | 119.5 |
| Denver Broncos | Mike McGlinchey | 67.5 | 63.5 | 6 | 569 | 94.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Joe Alt* | 90.7* | 91.2* | 1 | 368 | 368 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Braden Smith | 83.3 | 71.0 | 0 | 329 | – |
| Dallas Cowboys | Terence Steele | 50.8 | 45.9 | 8 | 735 | 91.9 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Thayer Munford Jr. | 74.1 | 59.2 | 4 | 303 | 75.8 |
| New York Jets | Morgan Moses | 77.6 | 75.9 | 5 | 450 | 90 |
| New York Giants | Evan Neal | 39.8 | 38.5 | 2 | 309 | 154.5 |
| Washington Commanders | Andrew Wylie | 69.2 | 67.5 | 9 | 693 | 77 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Daniel Faalele | 49.0 | 42.6 | 3 | 101 | 33.7 |
| Cleveland Browns | Jack Conklin** | 66.7** | 78.8** | 2 | 508 | 254 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Trent Brown | 80.2 | 72.8 | 3 | 346 | 115.3 |
| Cleveland Browns | Dawand Jones | 64.7 | 73.0 | 3 | 419 | 139.7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Lane Johnson | 80.9 | 79.5 | 3 | 572 | 190.7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Roger Rosengarten* | 71.0* | 80.8* | 0 | 625 | – |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Jawaan Taylor | 51.6 | 66.4 | 5 | 727 | 145.4 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Trent Brown | 80.2 | 72.8 | 3 | 346 | 115.3 |
*Rookie, based on 2023 college PFF grade
**Injured, based on 2022 PFF grade
For the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns, I split the games with each of their right tackles. It is unclear at this time who will be starting with training camp still a few weeks away.
The average offensive tackle that Watt is going against in 2024 has a 69.0 overall grade (+5.4) and a 67.6 pass-blocking grade (+4.0).
Last season, the tackles he went up against allowed a total of 82 sacks in 8,776 pass-pro snaps. That is one sack allowed every 107.0 snaps. The tackles he is projected to go against in 2024 allowed 61 sacks in 7,878 pass-pro snaps. That is one sack allowed every 129.2 snaps. A difference of 22.2 snaps per sack may not seem like much, but Watt averaged 32.4 pass-rush snaps per game last season.
This isn’t a perfect science. Joe Alt, for example, almost certainly won’t finish with an “elite” PFF grade of 90.0 or higher in his rookie season as he did in college. There will also be injuries along the way that change the outlook, and certain players will progress or regress from their 2023 performances.
On the positive end of things, the defense should be much healthier, and talent was added at almost every position. The defense as a whole should be much better than a year ago, and that should present some positive synergies from which Watt will benefit. If the defensive backs force an extra half second before receivers come open, Watt and the rest of the pass rush will have a better chance at getting home.
Do you guys think Watt will exceed his sack total from a year ago at 19.0? Or, for those of you who are feeling bold, will he break the 22.5 single-season sack record that he tied in 2021?
