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Study: When It Comes To Touchdowns, Expect Arthur Smith To Spread The Love

Arthur Smith Pittsburgh Steelers

Under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ passing game aims to find the end zone more than they have. A lot more. While that’s an obvious and hopeful point to make, the distribution of who celebrates in the end zone could look a lot different, too. In Pittsburgh, receiving touchdowns have been concentrated to a select few. Under Smith, those touchdown targets have been distributed to a far wider number of players.

Examining this in a couple of pieces, below is a chart showing the number of different touchdown pass catchers in Smith’s tenure compared to Pittsburgh. For Smith, that includes his 2019 and 2020 time with the Tennessee Titans as offensive coordinator and his last three years with the Atlanta Falcons as head coach.

Number Of Receivers To Score, Arthur Smith vs Pittsburgh

Year Arthur Smith TD Receivers Steelers TD Receivers
2023 8 4
2022 7 6
2021 8 6
2020 10 5
2019 13 6

Smith’s team outproduced the Steelers every single year. Sometimes by large amounts. In 2019, 2020, and 2023, Smith’s units doubled or more than doubled Pittsburgh’s. He’s spreading the ball to a lot more people than the Steelers.

It’s worth noting one reason why the Steelers number is low is because they simply don’t throw many touchdown passes, just 25 over the past two years combined. By its nature, it’s hard to have a large spread with numbers so small. But it’s not like the Falcons have been lighting it up through the air. Over the past two years, they’ve thrown for just 34 total touchdowns, one of the league’s lowest marks. And even in Pittsburgh’s better years, 2020 and 2021 (58 combined touchdown passes), Smith’s units still had a larger spread despite fewer touchdowns over that span, 53 across 2020 and 2021. So the point falls flat.

If you know me, you know I like relativity. How does Smith and the Steelers’ numbers compare with the rest of the league? I crunched the numbers of team-by-team touchdown catchers from 2019 through 2023. Here’s the top 10.

Top-10 TD Catcher Spread (2019-2023)

1. Buffalo Bills – 10.6
2. Kansas City Chiefs – 10.4
3. New Orleans Saints – 10.0
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 9.6
4. San Francisco 49ers – 9.6
6. Green Bay Packers – 9.4
7. Arthur Smith’s Teams – 9.2
7. Tennessee Titans – 9.2
7. Houston Texans – 9.2
10. Four Teams – 8.8

Smith-coached teams finish tied for seventh at over nine players per year having at least one receiving score. Extra impressive knowing he hasn’t had the top-end quarterback talent others on this list have had. The Bills with Josh Allen, the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, the Bucs with the end of Tom Brady’s career, the Packers with Aaron Rodgers.

How about the bottom five? You’ll never guess who is No. 1.

Bottom-Five TD Catcher Spread (2019-2023)

1. Pittsburgh Steelers – 5.4
2. Carolina Panthers – 6.2
3. New York Jets – 6.8
4. Los Angeles Rams – 7.4
5. Jacksonville Jaguars – 7.6
5. Las Vegas Raiders – 7.6

Pittsburgh comfortably in last, a full player behind Carolina, with barely more than five players per year scoring through the air. The Steelers don’t spread the ball around in the end zone, focusing on targeting their top weapons and feeding them the ball instead. If you want the full list, you can view it here.

It’s true there could be some noise here. Sometimes, who gets the ball or scores isn’t always intentional in the sense of “we must spread it around.” But when we reviewed Smith’s resume in our “Big Book of Arthur Smith” article shortly after his hire, he made a specific point of wanting to get everyone involved, especially in the red zone. Here’s what we wrote:

“He said his red zone goal is to make everyone believe they could get the football and score in any game. He praised how many players scored touchdowns in Tennessee, including two offensive linemen. A similar story seemed to apply in Atlanta. In 2023, eight different players caught touchdown passes despite the Falcons’ weak scoring output. In Pittsburgh, only four players had receiving scores. Perhaps that’s one reason for his red zone approach.”

It’s a philosophy born out of this data. Smith wants to get everyone involved. Something I expect to continue in his first year with the Steelers.

How could that tangibly translate? Don’t expect any one Steeler, even WR George Pickens, to finish with a bunch of touchdowns. In five years Smith has run offenses, only three players have caught more than five touchdown passes. All came in Tennessee. WR A.J. Brown did it twice while TE Jonnu Smith did it once. In Atlanta, no Falcon had more than five touchdown receptions in a single season. Five is a realistic number for someone like Pickens. Expect the tight ends to all find the end zone. Pat Freiermuth 3-4 times, Darnell Washington 2-3 times, Connor Heyward 2-3 times. And the running backs will probably also score through the air. Last season, Falcons backs had six total receiving touchdowns.

Spread the love. Spread the touchdowns. Along with a heavy dose of the run game and play-action, it’s something to confidently expect from Smith and the Steelers’ offense in 2024.

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