Today I wanted to continue learning about new Pittsburgh Steelers quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. An important element for offenses in today’s NFL is explosive plays (20 yards or more), along with limiting negative plays (zero yards or less). The goal is to see how they stacked up league-wide, including former Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett for comparison.
Here are explosive versus negative play rates on QB drop backs (min. of 250), which includes pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles:
The first thing that jumps out to me is Pickett being below the mean in explosive and negative play rates for Pittsburgh in 2023. More specifically, his 6.9 explosive play rate ranked 25th, and a 45.4 negative play rate landed 30th among the 33 qualifying quarterbacks.
So, we already knew things weren’t good enough overall in 2023 watching games unfold, and this specific data context gives us even more justification to Pittsburgh being willing to part ways.
The most positive result came from Fields, who posted a 10.5 explosive play rate that ranked sixth among his peers, impressively. Including scrambles in the data definitely helped his cause, one of the most dynamic running quarterbacks. Fields had 459 drop backs (21st), with 370 pass attempts (23rd), and 125 rush attempts in Chicago. The latter was third-most in 2023, only behind Eagles Jalen Hurts and Ravens Lamar Jackson despite only playing in 13 games. If things pan out long-term for Fields in the Steel City, quarterback play could catch up and thrust Pittsburgh towards the recent trends of dual threat QBs.
The bad news for Fields was a 44.9 negative play rate, which ranked 29th. Just one spot higher than Pickett last season. That makes some sense though, with work as a more consistent passer needing to be done, and being the fifth-most sacked QB last year.
Wilson was among the top-five in that undesirable stat as well, unfortunately taking the fourth-most sacks in 2023. Looking at his 40.6 negative play rate, he was still around the league-mean on all drop backs, ranking 18th. Yes, having a stronger number is the goal this season, but this gives context to his strongest passing results of the group, and still being able to scramble for positive plays.
Interestingly, Wilson had the sixth-most runs of non-RBs in 2023 despite his ripe age of 35. This, blended with his experience as a passer aids his ability to limit negative plays at the best rate of the players we’re focused on.
The other side of the coin for Wilson last season was a low 7.2 explosive play rate, ranking just one spot higher than Pickett at 24th. Obviously not as dynamic of a scrambler as Fields, and the quick pass offense that Sean Payton employed in Denver contributed to this.
Optimistically, Wilson does showcase deep passing prowess that will hopefully be unleashed more in OC Arthur Smith’s scheme, who had some particularly explosive offenses in Tennessee under the same job description.
Obviously, the ultimate goal is to be above-average in explosive plays, while limiting negative plays. That was also something that Smith’s offenses were able to achieve in his two seasons with the Titans, and hopefully brings with him to the Black and Gold.
This, paired with the capabilities of the new QB room, and players on the receiving end like WR George Pickens and speed to complement him in the rest of the position room have me optimistic that things could look much brighter in 2024.
To close, here is a rankings table of the data in this study:
