Today I wanted to look at and provide two data points that are very good at evaluating quarterback play. Expected Points Added looks at the situation of each play, and the value the outcome added to the likelihood of scoring.
Completion percent over expected (CPOE) is simply an over/under of quarterbacks completion rates, giving a sense of how they performed compared to expectations.
Here are how quarterbacks with a minimum of 275 dropbacks (33 qualifiers) fared in 2023:
With this visual, I darkened the dots for new Pittsburgh Steelers quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, along with former Steelers QB Kenny Pickett for comparison. We can clearly see there were two sides of the coin on the story of 2023.
Starting with the positive, the Steelers revamped quarterback room performed much better in CPOE. Wilson, the expected starter for Pittsburgh in 2024, had one of the best numbers at 4.9 which ranked third out of the 33 qualifiers.
That is very encouraging, especially when comparing that to Pickett’s -2.1 CPOE that landed 27th, seventh-worst among his peers last year. Including the full list of names on the chart emphasizes how poor that is, in unideal company on the bottom left, and the substantial spread in his performance compared to Wilson.
Fields landed between the two, with a near-the-mean 0.8 CPOE that ranked 18th. If things were to transpire similarly in 2024, that would also be a clear upgrade.
Now for the negative side of things, their EPA. While the new Pittsburgh quarterbacks also rank higher here, all three focused players were below the mean compared to their peers.
Wilson had the only positive number at 0.03, ranking 18th. Fields was just below that line at -0.02, ranking 24th. Pickett once again was worst of the bunch, with a -0.08 EPA that ranked 29th (fifth-worst).
That is a painful reminder of the scoreboard issue Pittsburgh had last season, and even longer. Unfortunately, the new rooms recent results were below the line as well, but seemingly will be able to provide more points. Particularly Wilson, who had 26 TDs, ninth-most in 2023.
The quarterback position is the head of the snake, but many factors in this ultimate team sport go into a successful scoring offense. Many would say that supporting casts lacked for Wilson and Fields in their previous situations, and could provide even more with Pittsburgh optimistically.
I am in this camp as well, with Pittsburgh investing heavily on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, tooling the offensive line for a hopefully more successful running game and protection for their passers.
The latter is one of our main concerns at Steelers Depot, with Wilson and Fields among the most sacked quarterbacks last season. How often a quarterback is under siege obviously impacts their passing effectiveness, and all three players we’re focused on were in the top ten in rate of dropbacks with a QB hit in that linked study.
Wilson was hit second-most at 20.4-percent, 17.7 for Fields (seventh), and 16.4 for Pickett (tenth). Hopefully those rates come down in 2024, setting up a chance for more success. The findings in my recent 2023 under pressure study gives some specific proof of that notion, with Wilson in particular seeing an encouraging bump and limiting negative plays when kept clean.
Being able to connect with his receivers at such a high rate in Denver is even more impressive when considering these facts. Pairing that information with a higher quality supporting cast (on paper), and an expected improved offensive scheme with new OC Arthur Smith in Pittsburgh, has me optimistic for the Black and Gold’s 2024 outlook on offense.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
