Recently, I started exploring the Rush Percentage Over Expected (ROE%) stat for running backs that Next Gen Stats uses. As a result of that exploration, I thought I would look at that stat from the 2023 regular season, and particularly how Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, and other NFL running backs stacked up in it in 2023 when added alongside explosive runs of 15 yards or longer percentages.
In case you need a quick explanation of the Rush Percentage Over Expected (ROE%) stat that NGS uses, it is the percentage of runs where a ball-carrier gained more yards than expected. You can read more about that stat right here on the NFL.com site.
As far as my use of 15 yards or longer as an explosive run measurement, more and more data analysts are beginning to use that as a minimum for running plays instead of 20 yards. The stat, EXP15%, is the percentage of all rushing attempts that a running back had that resulted in gains of 15 yards or longer.
Now that we have the stats for this study described, I chose to look at all running backs from the 2023 regular season who registered at least 125 carries. There were 41 in total, and the Pittsburgh Steelers had two running backs who qualified: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
After scatter-plotting the results of the 2023 running backs with 125 or more carries with ROE% as the horizontal axis and EXP15% as the vertical axis, we get a fairly good picture of which ones excelled in both of these advanced rushing statistics. The top right quadrant of the scatterplot is where you hope to see a running back appear.
To probably nobody’s surprise, San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey ranked as the top player when using these two advanced rushing metrics. Specifically, McCaffrey registered a 46.6 ROE% in 2023 and a 7.4 EXP15%. If you are scoring at home, McCaffrey registered 20 runs of 15 yards or longer during the 2023 regular season.
A bit surprisingly, perhaps, is the fact that both Harris and Warren show up in the best quadrant of this scatterplot that reflects ROE% and EXP15%. Of the 41 running backs from the 2023 regular season used in this statistical study, Harris ranked seventh overall in ROE% at 41.9. Warren ranked well overall in ROE% as he finished 16th at 39.7.
However, Warren registered an EXP15% of 8.1 in 2023, second to only Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs at 8.2. On the other hand, Harris ranked eighth overall in EXP15% for 2023 at 5.5. If you want the real totals, Warren registered 12 runs of 15 yards or longer in 2023, while Harris had 14 such runs. Warren, however, only had 149 total rushing attempts during the 2023 regular season, while Harris had 255.
So, is the ROE% stat a good measurement to use in terms of figuring out a truer running back successful run rate, and how does it compare to SUCC%, which we have been using universally for several years now? Before I get into comparisons of ROE% versus SUCC%, let’s go over the latter’s definition.
The SUCC% (Rushing Success Rate) stat is a result of a successful rush that gains at least 40% of the yards required on 1st down, 60% of the yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down. The denominator to figure out the percentage is rushing attempts. These stats can easily be found on the stathead.com site as well.
In 2023, Warren registered a SUCC% of 49.7, ranking him 12th overall on the list of 41 running backs with 125 or more rushing attempts. As for Harris, his SUCC% of 48.2 in 2023 ranked him 21st overall on that same list. Basically, right in the middle of the pack.
Which stat do you trust more, ROE% or SUCC%? I’m really undecided on that myself right now, but you can bet I will be monitoring both closely in 2024 and also looking back at historical stats for each.
My main takeaway from looking at ROE% and EXP15% for 2023 is that Harris and Warren both fared better than I thought they might when compared to other running backs who registered at least 125 carries during the regular season. Let’s face it, explosive runs of 15 yards or greater in games are huge. With Harris and Warren both ranked in the top ten last season in the percentage of those types of runs, that results in a lot of optimism for both running backs for the 2024 season. If both Harris and Warren can improve their ROE% stats in 2024, the Steelers might just wind up having one of the top rushing offenses.
Let me know your thoughts on this particular 2023 stat study for running backs and, specifically, the ROE% stat.
