Anytime the offseason gets especially slow, such is the case this week, I turn to the Pittsburgh Steelers Pro Football Reference page to start playing around with the numbers. This idea, like many others, comes from that, and I know it’s just idle July speculation. But knowing the strength of the offense, it’s ground game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and a run-heavy Arthur Smith, the idea that both runners receive 200 carries this year isn’t out of the question. Unlikely? Perhaps. Completely crazy? No, not if the Steelers’ plan comes together like they envision it.
Harris remains the lead back. Warren rotates in behind. Last year, that translated into Harris leading with 255 carries, Warren with 149. But if the split evens out just a little bit, those two could do something few duos have accomplished this century.
Since 2000, there’s only been six instances of two running backs receiving at least 200 carries in the same season. It’s only happened once in the last decade. In an era of big passing offenses, fungible runners, and just plain injuries getting in the way, it’s rare for an offense to pull it off. Here are those last six examples, an interesting mix of names.
Running Back Duos With At Least 200 Carries Same Season (2000-2023)
2021 Denver Broncos – Melvin Gordon (203), Javonte Williams (203)
2013 Buffalo Bills – Fred Jackson (206), C.J. Spiller (202)
2010 Kansas City Chiefs – Jamaal Charles (230), Thomas Jones (245)
2009 Carolina Panthers – Jonathan Stewart (221), DeAngelo Williams (216)
2008 Tennessee Titans – Chris Johnson (251), LenDale White (200)
2000 New York Giants – Tiki Barber (213), Ron Dayne (228)
A reminder that the late 2000s-early 2010s was really a golden age for running backs. At least, in this modern era. Stewart and Williams are one of the most well-known committees of the last 20 years but there’s other interesting pairings on this list. Who remembers Thomas Jones rushing so much for the Chiefs?
And though there’s only been one instance in 10 years, it’s a pretty recent one. The Broncos did it with Gordon and Williams in 2021 and they only ranked 14th in total rushing attempts.
If you’re curious, it’s happened with the Steelers three times, 1986 the most recent. That year, Walter Abercrombie and Earnest Jackson each went over 200 carries. The year before, it was Abercrombie and Frank Pollard. It also happened once in the 70s, 1976 when Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier each eclipsed 200 carries and 1,000 yards.
Can Harris and Warren do it? As the above list shows, for it to happen, Harris can’t have 250-plus carries again. Among this list, only one back has reached that number, Johnson’s 251 in 2008 as White finished the year with exactly 200. For most, they’re in the low 200-carry range. Meaning, Harris and Warren will need to have close to a 50-50 split than the 63/37 distribution they finished with in 2023.
Under Arthur Smith, that feels possible. He’s willing to use a committee approach and figures to lean on both of his runners this year. That could tighten those margins between Warren and Harris. Last year, his Falcons team got close to entering this club. First-rounder Bijan Robinson finished with 214 carries while Tyler Allgeier ended with 186.
Harris has been a beacon of durability but if he misses a game and those carries swing to Warren? That could close the margin Warren needs to reach 200 carries, especially in a 17-game season, a luxury most teams of the last 20 years didn’t have.
If Pittsburgh’s running game is as good as the Steelers think it will be, they’re going to run the snot out of the football. This offense will finish top five in carries. Using last year’s numbers as a guide, that put the Steelers over 500. That data does include quarterback runs, creating noise, but Harris and Warren still combined for 406 carries last year. A stronger running game will top those carries and potentially approach the 450 range. From there, we could imagine a stat line that looks like:
Najee Harris – 215 carries
Jaylen Warren – 204 carries
Cordarrelle Patterson/Others – 31 carries
That’s not the most likely scenario. But it’s one I’d put within the realm of possibility if all goes well. And probably sets this offense up for success behind an improved offensive line and strong running back committee.
