Bringing back an exercise I did ahead of the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers season. With the team one month away from reporting to training camp, it’s worth taking inventory of the Steelers’ 90-man roster (which, due to an international exemption, can and will become a 91-man roster soon enough) and offering a framework of the odds that each player makes the 53-man roster.
Our final installment of the Steelers roster, though we’ll have one more article recapping things later this week. These are the locks, the players either guaranteed or virtually guaranteed to make the 53-man roster. A reminder: these percentages only reflect that, making the Active/Inactive roster, and don’t consider injuries.
STEELERS LOCKS (95%-Plus Chance OF MAKING STEELERS 53-MAN ROSTER)
QB Justin Fields – 100%
WR Roman Wilson – 100%
WR George Pickens – 100%
RB Najee Harris – 100%
CB Joey Porter Jr. – 100%
RB Jaylen Warren – 100%
S Minkah Fitzpatrick – 100%
EDGE Nick Herbig – 100%
S DeShon Elliott – 100%
LB Payton Wilson – 100%
LB Patrick Queen – 100%
C Zach Frazier – 100%
EDGE Alex Highsmith – 100%
OG Isaac Seumalo – 100%
OG James Daniels – 100%
OT Troy Fautanu – 100%
TE Pat Freiermuth – 100%
EDGE T.J. Watt – 100%
TE Darnell Washington – 100%
NT Keeanu Benton – 100%
DE Cameron Heyward – 100%
OT Broderick Jones – 100%
QB Russell Wilson – 99%
P Cameron Johnston – 99%
K Chris Boswell – 99%
DT Larry Ogunjobi – 99%
CB Donte Jackson – 99%
LS Christian Kuntz – 99%
LB Elandon Roberts – 99%
S Miles Killebrew – 95%
LB Cole Holcomb – 95%
OG Nate Herbig – 95%
OG Mason McCormick – 95%
RB/KR Cordarrelle Patterson – 95%
Most names here don’t need explanations. They are starters and stars who are obviously part of this 2024 Steelers roster. The first three draft picks all sit at 100 percent. Mason McCormick is the exception, dropping down to 95 percent. Fourth-round picks getting cut out of camp and missing the 53 is rare but has happened: Fred Gibson, Danny Farmer, and Doran Grant are examples. Still, high odds are McCormick will be kept and could push to start, assuming James Daniels exits (something likely to occur) after the year.
It might seem curious to put Justin Fields at 100 percent and Russell Wilson *only* at 99. But, in theory, if Wilson somehow tanks this summer and Fields shines to become the starter, on Wilson’s minimum salary, I suppose he could be cut. But a 1/100 odds, as the percentage notes.
Boswell has been an excellent kicker but there’s always that tiny chance he has a terrible summer. Certainly hope not, but there is a proven veteran in Matthew Wright as the No. 2. Still, it’s nitpicking, and common with specialists.
Killebrew is a core special teamer but shouldn’t have a defensive role out of the gate. Herbig will likely operate as a top backup guard and center, but if McCormick and Spencer Anderson have great camps, there could be a conversation. Patterson is the starting return man, but he’s 33, and the new kickoff rules make providing certainty to anything related difficult.
