Bringing back an exercise I did ahead of the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers season. With the team one month away from reporting to training camp, it’s worth taking inventory of the team’s 90-man roster (which, due to an international exemption, can and will become a 91-man roster soon enough) and offering a framework of the odds that each player makes the 53-man roster.
Coming closer to the end and the top of the Steelers roster with the “near-locks” to make the team. Names who aren’t quite 100 percent etched in stone but should be feeling good about their chances entering camp. A reminder this exercise doesn’t take into consideration injury and only reflects the odds of making the 53, not the practice squad.
Steelers Near-Locks (76%-94% Of Making Steelers 53-man Roster)
NT Montravius Adams – 90%
S Damontae Kazee – 90%
OT Dan Moore – 90%
DE Dean Lowry – 85%
TE/FB Connor Heyward – 85%
CB Cam Sutton – 80%
ILB Mark Robinson – 80%
QB Kyle Allen – 80%
Adams is a very average defensive lineman and not as effective a pass rusher as he is an athlete. But he signed a multi-year deal this offseason and those guys rarely get cut in their first camp back. He should be the No. 2 nose tackle behind Keeanu Benton after starting ahead of him in the first half of last year. Kazee won’t start but will work as a sub-package player, likely used in dime.
Moore still has high odds of making the Steelers roster, though his chances of starting are far dimmer. The 10 percent to consider are the odds he gets traded. Pittsburgh will value their tackle experience even if Moore’s an awkwardly-fitting backup. But there could be a market for him and if Dylan Cook has a strong summer to give the team confidence in being the Steelers’ swing tackle.
Like Adams, Lowry signed a two-year deal this offseason. He’s a pure run stuffer but should make the team in Armon Watts’ role. I only put his odds slightly below Adams because there’s more competition at defensive end than nose tackle.
Many will argue Heyward is too low. Arthur Smith loves his tight ends. But he’s also loaded up the roster with five of them. Is Heyward a competent in-line blocker for this run-heavy system? His size is an obvious issue. Will and can he lead block at fullback? His special teams value, versatility, and comfort as a Y-off in this zone-heavy system are assets, and he probably makes it. But he’s a jack-of-all-trades at a deep position group. He’s not fully locked in.
Gauging Sutton is difficult to do with a suspension hanging over his head. I put these odds primarily on his play earning him a spot, putting aside the NFL stepping in and handing down a multi-game ban. Sutton had a tough 2023 with Detroit but should fit Pittsburgh’s system better. But signed to the minimum, he can be easily discarded.
Robinson isn’t as safe as some think. The team has clearly shown trust issues, barely playing him despite a litany of 2023 injuries, and reloaded at the position this offseason. He’ll have to really earn his keep on special teams because it won’t come on defense. Pittsburgh values having three experienced quarterbacks, which should make Allen’s spot safe. However, a brand new quarterback room lends itself to uncertainty and the NFL has expanded practice squad rules to allow for an emergency third QB to come from there. It does, to my understanding, take up one of the two standard elevations teams get each week, but it creates additional flexibility, which hurts Allen’s standing a bit.
