Buy Or Sell: Jaylen Warren will lead the Steelers in yards from scrimmage in 2024.
Explanation: The Steelers are shifting to a more run-heavy offense and a passing game less focused on wide receivers. They are constantly looking for ways to get Jaylen Warren more involved, so now is the time. Between rush attempts and receptions, he should easily top 1,000 yards again, but by how much?
Buy:
Jaylen Warren worked to close the snap count gap with Najee Harris last year, and he’ll make headway with touches this year as well. He got 210 touches in 2023, including 61 receptions, so 275 isn’t unreasonable in a run-priority offense.
Warren’s receptions primarily came on third down or in 2nd-and-long situations, so he’ll still have that role. Even if the Steelers run the ball a lot more, he will still get his targets because of the context in which they come.
And let’s look at Denver for a second. Courtland Sutton gained an average of 878 yards in 17 games playing with Russell Wilson the last two years. Just because the Steelers traded Diontae Johnson doesn’t mean George Pickens is suddenly going for 2,000 yards. He might be lucky to hit 1,000 again in an offense that prioritizes ball distribution.
Jaylen Warren’s role in the offense is much less volatile. He will get his carries, and probably a higher percentage, and his receiving role is also stable. Pickens still has to prove he can function at a high level without a strong second option.
Sell:
George Pickens went over 1,000 yards last year while mostly playing with Kenny Pickett, so take the over for him. On just 15 targets, he put up 326 yards with Mason Rudolph, though that’s not a sustainable rate. But the point is, Pickens is going to do numbers—more than a committee back like Jaylen Warren can match.
Let’s be honest here. We all like Warren, but we also know that he’s never been “the guy”. He has benefitted over the past two years from plays that have a higher chance of success. And I think Najee Harris will benefit from this offseason’s changes even more than Warren. If anything, it will be Harris leading the team in scrimmage yards if Pickens doesn’t.
With the Steelers’ 2023 season in the rearview mirror following a disappointing year that came up short in the playoffs once again, it’s time to start asking more questions. Questions about the team’s future in 2024 and beyond. Questions about The Standard.
The rookie class of a year ago was on the whole impressive, but they need to step up into staple starters in 2024. And they needed a strong influx of talent in both free agency and in the 2024 NFL Draft yet again. In addition to a revisitation of the coaching staff.
These sorts of uncertainties are what I will look to address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, I will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
