Air yards are an increasingly important factor in today’s NFL. Today, I wanted to look at and provide data on new Pittsburgh Steelers OC Arthur Smith, to pair with a similar study on quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields’ 2023 air yard data.
When people think of air yardage, pushing the ball downfield usually comes to mind first, and could certainly improve for the 2024 Steelers offense. Attacking defenses in all areas of the field is even better, with quality connection of course, and the goal today is to see those frequencies across the NFL last season.
Using Sports Info Solutions (SIS), I calculated air yard percentages (air yards/intended air yards) for NFL offenses since 2019, and here are the results:
Smith had the top three teams we’re focused on, encouragingly. They were also the only ones in our sights that eclipsed air yard rates above 50 percent (comfortably). As OC of the Tennessee Titans, both of Smith’s offenses were in the top 20 out of the 160 qualifying teams in the five-year span since 2019.
That’s an impressive feat indeed, and hopefully something we see translate to Pittsburgh in the same role. More specifically, his top mark of 59.2 came with Tennessee in 2020, ranking eighth-best. Then we see his first season as OC, with the 2019 Titans coming in at 55.6 percent (19th).
For additional context, four teams had 60-plus rates since 2019, including two teams last season in the 49ers (61.8, second-best) and Lions (60.5, fourth).
Let’s examine this further. With such high air yard percentages, many would think the main reason would be explosive passing (20 yards or more). The 2020 Titans, the top team in our sights, had just 35 explosive air yard attempts (156th), 13 completions (T-154th), 1,087 intended air yards (156th), and 411 air yards (T-142nd). Connection was the best of those marks, but all low in the ranks across the board.
Instead, intermediate passing (ten-19 yards) was the name of the game for their passing offense. 131 intermediate attempts tied for 32nd in the span, with 81 completions (T-19th), 1,735 intended air yards (48th), and 1,091 air yards (T-26th). Comfortably above average in each, we see Smith and the 2020 Titans did most of their air yard damage in the intermediate range.
That is something I have clamored for, and shared in my Steelers passing chart series, with Pittsburgh lacking in the intermediate passing game. For comparison, here are the Steelers intermediate marks in 2023: 102 attempts (T-120th), 52 completions (T-134th), 1,428 intended air yards (T-118th), 718 air yards (136th). Staggering difference.
As you might expect, Pittsburgh’s explosive numbers in 2023 weren’t awe inspiring either: 52 attempts (T-122nd), 17 completions (T-124th), 1,495 intended air yards (122nd), 469 air yards (126th). Each of these numbers topped the 2020 Titans though (surprisingly), but the latter had the better quality, emphasized by the air yard percentages I dove into today.
While Smith’s numbers in Atlanta were lower, his first season as head coach in 2021 was also quite good. Their 54.6 air yard percentage ranked 27th (out of 160), meaning he had three straight coaching seasons of well above average air yardage.
Pittsburgh’s best mark was in 2022, with a 48.7 air yardage rate, but landed much lower in the NFL ranks at 90th. That was below average, and also means that the Steelers were below the league mean in each of the last five seasons, unfortunately.
The rest of the Steelers teams ranked in the bottom 40, including last season, with that 45.5 air yard percentage ranking 121st. Another notable rank was in 2019, an injury riddled season at QB that factored heavily into an abysmal 37.7 air yard rate that was dead last in the timeframe.
Only three of the 160 teams posted an air yard percentage below 40, including a recent 2023 Patriots squad at 38.6, with that 4-13 team that clearly struggled landing one rank above the 2019 Steelers.
These facts re-emphasize the point I made in the opening of the article, with Pittsburgh failing to threaten defenses at various levels of the field compared to the league for too long. Overall, that is clearly something that Smith has on his resume, and can hopefully bring to the Black and Gold in 2024 (and beyond).
Most recently though, Smith’s last two seasons were below average. 2023 was the better of the two, with a 48.2 number that ranked 96th. The previous year (2022), their 43.6 air yard percentage was his lowest by far, ranking 137th and sandwiched between several Pittsburgh teams.
The Steelers did invest heavily on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, including the quarterback position. In terms of air yard percentages, Wilson ranked 24th, and Fields at 19th out of the 31 QBs I studied. They are definitely capable deep ball passers though.
Their previous team situations weren’t the best, and many agree that a stronger supporting cast around them, along with Smith’s offense, will hopefully bring better results in 2024 with Pittsburgh.
Here’s to hoping that this next chapter for Smith in the Steel City brings results closer to his Tennessee OC days. That is quite optimistic, and even the overall numbers that his Atlanta teams achieved would be an improvement on what Pittsburgh has done for the vast majority of the last five years.
One thing’s for sure, I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
