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Analyst Thinks Jaylen Warren Will Receive Increased Share Of Red Zone Carries Under Arthur Smith

Jaylen Warren

The division of labor in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ backfield was pretty clear last season. RB Najee Harris received 255 rush attempts and 38 pass targets while RB Jaylen Warren received 149 rush attempts and 74 targets. This was all while having a relatively even split of offensive snaps. Warren was more of a change-of-pace back who was checking in on third downs, while Harris tended to carry more of the early-down work.

Another area where Harris had the edge was his carries inside the red zone. One analyst thinks that could change with the new offensive system under OC Arthur Smith.

“Jaylen Warren might be more involved near the goal line this season,” Graham Barfield of FantasyPts wrote on X. “The Steelers’ old staff gave Najee Harris 45 carries inside the 10 (78% share) compared to just 12 for Warren (21% share) in the last two seasons.

“OC Arthur Smith loves to rotate RBs in the red zone. Bijan Robinson handled just 44% of the carries inside the 10 last year. [Tyler] Allgeier was at 37% and [Cordarrrelle] Patterson 19%.”

One thing Steelers Depot’s own Alex Kozora observed back when Smith was hired, was his usage of 21 and 22 personnel. In 2023, the Atlanta Falcons were in two-back sets 30 percent of the time. A lot of that was using a fullback, but some was pony personnel, so there should be opportunities for Harris and Warren to get on the field at the same time. The lower red zone might be an area to try that out as the Steelers look to out-physical their opponents in goal-to-go situations.

Warren has just five rushing touchdowns in his two-year career, but that number jumped from one in 2022 to four in 2023. As he continues to take on a larger role, will the Steelers give him more opportunities in the red zone?

Harris has the bigger body and is built better for running between the tackles and against stacked boxes. We saw at the end of last season how much the Steelers value that particular skill that Harris possesses. When the weather got cold and rainy, and defenses were stacking the box, Harris received 72 rushing attempts compared to Warren’s 30 over the final three games.

A new coordinator has the potential to change that. Maybe it will shift to a 70-30 split, or even a 65-35. But to me, it makes more sense to continue leaning on Harris near the goal line.

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