Over the final 10 games of the 2023 regular season, the Pittsburgh Steelers had the third-most rushing yards in the NFL with 1,452. They turned things around from a very slow start on offense once Broderick Jones was inserted as the full-time starter at right tackle. Over that time, while the snap count totals between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren evened out, Harris had 722 rushing yards on 171 attempts to Warren’s 609 on 104 attempts.
Harris finished the season strong with his only two 100-yard rushing performances of the season over the final two weeks. The arrow appeared to be trending up for him and the offense. Yet here we are entering the 2024 season, and one analyst is predicting regression for Harris entering the fourth and final season of his rookie deal.
“Last year, Najee Harris made it a third consecutive season in which he ran for over 1,000 yards. Yet, despite his success, he could take a step back under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith in 2024,” Pro Football Network analyst Anthony DiBona wrote on Tuesday. “Although Smith had plenty of success with Derrick Henry while with the Tennessee Titans, his misuse of [Bijan] Robinson in Atlanta was confusing. Jaylen Warren also showed promise for the Steelers last season.”
DiBona doesn’t make it abundantly clear why Harris could regress, but I will lay out some factors on either side of the argument.
The Case For Najee Harris Regression In 2024
Jaylen Warren went from 31 percent of the offensive snaps in 2022 to 49 percent in 2023 while Harris’ snaps have steadily fallen over each of his three seasons. Out of the two, Warren has been more efficient with 5.3 yards per carry to Harris’ 4.1. This could finally be the year that Warren flips Harris and earns the greater share of snaps and carries.
The new offensive system under OC Arthur Smith figures to feature more wide-zone concepts. Harris has been more of a north-south runner who thrives in a gap scheme. At his size, he may not possess the required speed and explosion to maximize the new scheme.
I don’t think there are any concerns about him showing up at training camp, but will he be a full participant? He is playing on a base salary of just $2,439,198 this season and could be in line for a decent pay day next March. He has gotten injured at training camp before. Any time spent as a non-participant in camp could hamper his adjustment to the new offense.
The Case For Progress In 2024
When Harris was drafted in 2021, he entered an unenviable situation behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Since then, the Steelers have added OGs James Daniels and Isaac Seumalo in free agency and invested five draft picks over the last two years—including a pair of first round tackles—to beef up the line. There could be growing pains with such a young unit at first, but the talent level is leaps and bounds above what he has had for the duration of his career.
Harris was just starting to hit his stride at the end of last season, and the Steelers very clearly valued his skill set when the weather got cold and rainy.
Harris has reportedly cut some weight and is more agile as a result, which could be perfect for Smith’s offensive system. Smith likes to run the ball a lot, and that should only increase over how much the Steelers ran last year. They spent the seventh-most time in the league trailing in games last season. If the offense improves, they should hopefully be protecting more leads and running the ball more late in games.
Russell Wilson also likes to check down to his running backs. Harris was barely involved as a receiver last season but had 74 receptions back in his rookie season. That could help boost his numbers and his overall involvement in the offense.
