We’ve spent the offseason talking about the things Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields need to avoid. Negative plays. Turnovers are the most costly, but sacks are right behind. And no quarterbacks get taken down as often as Wilson and Fields. Since Wilson came into the league in 2012, no one has been sacked more than him. Since Fields came into the league in 2021, no one has been sacked more than him.
Previously, we’ve written about how quicker snap-to-throw times will cut down on those sacks. But that still seems vague and not a repeatable, season-long goal to track. Let’s take another angle. Wilson and Fields are going to be sacked more than Kenny Pickett was. More than what Steelers’ quarterbacks have been in recent years. How much is too much? Where is the red line they can’t cross? We have an answer. Keep it under 50 sacks, and the Steelers can win. Go over and their playoff odds go up in smoke.
Dating back to 2013, I looked at every team sacked in two categories: 50-plus sacks and 45-49 sacks. I pulled how many of them made the playoffs. The results are stark. Below are two tables, one showing teams and playoff outcomes when sacked 50 or more times and the 45-49 sacked teams. I will have them listed by year to avoid the chart from being way too long.
Teams Sacked 50-Plus Times In A Season (2013-2023)
| Year/Team | Playoff Teams | Playoff Team Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2023: Giants, Commanders, Panthers, Titans, Jets, Broncos, Bengals, Bears |
Zero | 0% |
| 2022: Broncos, Colts, Rams, Bears | Zero | 0% |
| 2021: Bears, Ravens, Bengals Jets, Panthers |
Bengals | 20% |
| 2020: Eagles, Texans, Football Team, Giants |
Football Team | 25% |
| 2019: Dolphins, Panthers, Titans, Jets, Falcons, Cardinals, Redskins |
Titans | 14.3% |
| 2018: Texans, Cowboys, Packers, Jaguars, Raiders, Dolphins, Cardinals, Seahawks |
Texans, Cowboys, Seahawks |
37.5% |
| 2017: Colts, Texans, Cardinals, Broncos, Packers, Browns |
Zero | 0% |
| 2016: Browns | Zero | 0% |
| 2015: Titans, Browns, 49ers, Jaguars | Zero | 0% |
| 2014: Jaguars, Redskins, Bucs, 49ers, Vikings, Titans |
Zero | 0% |
| 2013: Dolphins, Jaguars | Zero | 0% |
| Totals: 55 Teams | Six | 10.9% |
Teams Sacked 45-49 Times (2013-2023)
| Year/Team | Playoff Teams | Playoff Team Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2023: Patriots, Vikings, Texans, Browns | Texans, Browns | 50% |
| 2022: Giants, Titans, Commanders, Vikings, Seahawks, Cardinals |
Giants, Vikings, Seahawks |
50% |
| 2021: Browns, Titans, Seahawks | Titans | 33.3% |
| 2020: Bengals, Seahawks | Seahawks | 50% |
| 2019: Texans, Seahawks, Bengals, Bucs, Bears |
Texans, Seahawks | 40% |
| 2018: 49ers, Giants, Titans | Zero | 0% |
| 2017: Lions, Jets, Bills | Bills | 33.3% |
| 2016: Rams, 49ers, Bills | Zero | 0% |
| 2015: Packers, Seahawks, Chiefs, Dolphins, Vikings |
Packers, Seahawks Chiefs, Vikings |
80% |
| 2014: Chiefs, Rams, Jets, Dolphins, Lions | Lions | 20% |
| 2013: Browns, Ravens, Bills, Jets, Bucs, Eagles, Packers |
Eagles, Packers | 28.6% |
| Totals: 46 Teams | 17 | 37% |
To summarize, there were 55 teams sacked 50-plus times. They made the playoffs six times, 10.9 percent. There were 46 teams sacked 45-49 times. They made the playoffs 17 times, 37 percent. It’s still just over one-third of the time, but a major increase compared to the 50-sack club.
It’s also worth noting Russell Wilson seems to be an outlier here. His 2018 Seahawks are one of the six teams to make the playoffs of the 50-sack club, while his 2015, 2019, and 2020 Seahawks teams in the 45-49 category all made the postseason. In four of his six seasons in which he was sacked 45-plus times, he’s made the playoffs.
Still, the data presents a trend line. It is obvious and intuitive the less often you’re sacked, the more likely you are to win, there is a steep drop off once you cross 50 of them. Even though the 45-49 playoff rate sits at just 37 percent when you consider the Steelers’ other strengths, a good run game and stout defense, that should boost their odds instead of being a bad team sacked a lot as bad teams tend to be.
This is all goal setting. Having tangible numbers to think about. We know Wilson and Fields need to keep their Steelers sacks as low as possible but setting an actual target, under 50, defines and creates important clarity. Being sacked well less than 50 or 45 times is even better. Perhaps that’s the real goal. Call “under 50” the mandate. Or else the Steelers won’t even get the chance to reach the postseason and end their drought.
