Bringing back an exercise I did ahead of the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers season. With the team one month away from reporting to training camp, it’s worth taking inventory of the team’s 90-man roster (which, due to an international exemption, can and will become a 91-man roster soon enough) and offering a framework of the odds that each player makes the 53-man roster.
As our 2022 exercise outlined, there are a few caveats.
– This percentage only refers to the odds the player makes the Steelers’ 53-man roster. It doesn’t consider their practice squad odds. With a 16-man taxi squad, many players who don’t have much chance to make the 53 will end up there.
– It doesn’t consider and account for inevitable injuries. That will change the landscape of the roster, but those are unpredictable and won’t be factored in. What will be considered are potential trades and other roster moves to change the roster prior to Week 1.
– Those who are listed with identical percentages aren’t done in any meaningful order. So the guy at the top with one percent versus the one at the bottom of the list is treated the same. Really, I went through the Steelers’ roster by jersey number so that’s how most of this list ended up being ordered.
We’ll begin with the “long shots.” The players facing a steep climb to make the team. I never want to call them “camp bodies.” That’s a disrespectful term, and it’s why none of these players will be listed at zero percent. Still, these players face the harsh reality that making the 53 isn’t easy. But not impossible. In our 2022 edition, one player on the “long shot” list, WR Steven Sims, and his 10 percent chance made the team after a strong training camp and preseason.
Here are the 2024 names trying to prove me wrong.
STEELERS’ ROSTER LONG SHOTS (<10% CHANCE TO MAKE 53-MAN ROSTER)
FB Jack Colletto – 10%
EDGE Kyron Johnson: 10%
NT Breiden Fehoko – 10%
WR Marquez Callaway – 5%
QB John Rhys Plumlee – 5%
EDGE David Perales – 5%
S Jalen Elliott – 5%
LB Jacoby Windmon – 5%
RB Jonathan Ward – 5%
RB Daijun Edwards – 2%
CB Thomas Graham Jr. – 2%
RB La’Mical Perine – 2%
C Ryan McCollum – 2%
OT Devery Hamilton – 2%
DL Jonathan Marshall – 2%
OL Anderson Hardy – 1%
OG Joey Fisher – 1%
OL Tyler Beach – 1%
WR Jaray Jenkins – 1%
K Matthew Wright – 1%
CB Kalon Barnes – 1%
RB Aaron Shampklin – 1%
S Nate Meadors – 1%
LB Tyler Murray – 1%
EDGE Julian Welschof – 1%
DL Jacob Slade – 1%
WR Jacob Copeland – 1%
WR Duece Watts – 1%
DL Willington Previlon – 1%
Colletto, Johnson, and Fehoko are in the 10 percent club. Colletto is a quality athlete who did everything in college to the point where he won a Paul Hornung Award for being college football’s most versatile player. Without a true fullback in Arthur Smith’s offense (Connor Heyward and MyCole Pruitt are options), perhaps Colletto earns some buzz this summer.
Despite finishing last season on the Steelers roster, Johnson isn’t being talked about. He’s terribly undersized for what the team likes, and the addition of Jeremiah Moon dinged his chances. Still, he played on special teams and has some NFL experience. Fehoko has a tough path as a third-string nose tackle, only able to play on run downs. But he is a solid plugger in the middle.
Callaway is trying to capture his 2020 season with the New Orleans Saints. There’s size and experience on the outside in a wide receiver room without many locks. But his career has gone backward, and he didn’t catch a pass in 2023. Plumlee is a fun athlete, and who knows, maybe he returns some kicks this summer, but he’s looking up at three veteran quarterbacks in the room. Perales hung around the practice squad most of last season but I wasn’t impressed by his camp performance.
Elliott’s odds are boosted a bit on the heels of S Trenton Thompson’s release, but practice squad is still more likely for him. Windmon might try to push Mark Robinson for a spot as the Steelers No. 5 inside linebacker. Ward is a well-rounded running back, but it would take a really good summer to compel the team to keep four running backs.
The two percent club has something at least a little interesting about them: Edwards’ coverage/special teams ability, Graham’s physicality and slot work, Perine’s NFL experience, McCollum for a Steelers team that still lacks great center depth. Marshall has been glued to the practice squad and reps could be difficult to find but the d-line room has some opening. And Hamilton… maybe Dan Moore gets traded, and a spot opens up.
Hardy and Fisher might be fun linemen to watch in camp, but if they’re playing guard, the numbers game works against them. Beach is versatile but probably won’t beat out someone like Spencer Anderson. Wright is a fine kicker who greatly improved leg strength during his career, but he’ll be released unless Chris Boswell tanks this summer. Barnes and Shampklin are fast but undersized. Welschof should land on the practice squad as the team’s International Exemption. Most everyone else is buried on the depth chart.
