Bringing back an exercise I did ahead of the 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers season. With the team one month away from reporting to training camp, it’s worth taking inventory of the Steelers’ 90-man roster (which, due to an international exemption, can and will become a 91-man roster soon enough) and offer a framework of the odds that each player makes the 53-man roster.
Today, we’re checking out players squarely on the roster bubble, whose odds of making the 53-man roster could go one way or another. A reminder that these percentages are based off a player’s chances of making the 53, not the practice squad, and is based off their talent, standing on the depth chart and any possible trades. These odds don’t take into account potential injuries around them, either.
STEELERS SQUARELY ON THE BUBBLE (41%-55% CHANCE OF MAKING 53-MAN ROSTER)
CB Darius Rush – 51%
WR Van Jefferson – 51%
TE MyCole Pruitt – 50%
TE Rodney Williams – 50%
CB Cory Trice Jr. – 49%
S Ryan Watts – 45%
A small list and much shorter compared to the last time we did it two years ago. In some respects, the roster is more settled than it was as the team transitioned out of the Ben Roethlisberger and Kevin Colbert eras. Still, there are a few notable names and battles with players pretty linked to each other.
Darius Rush and Cory Trice Jr. are fighting to be a top backup cornerback. Based on current roster construction, it’s possible both make it. Only Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson feel like virtual locks to make the team and play Week 1. That leaves three or potentially four cornerback spots open.
But we simply don’t know much about either player. Pittsburgh became Rush’s third team last year and saw sparse playing time. I give him slightly better odds than Trice because Rush was healthy to take reps last year and has a proven skillset at gunner based on his college resume. Trice has intriguing physical tools but has yet to appear in an NFL game, even a preseason one.
At wide receiver sits Van Jefferson. Coming over from Atlanta, he has familiarity with Arthur Smith’s system and scheme, and does bring size and versatility despite a quiet season last year. But his spot clearly isn’t etched in stone.
The tight end battle between Rodney Williams and MyCole Pruitt might be the most overlooked of the summer. Even for a heavy-carrying team at the position under Arthur Smith, the Steelers won’t keep five tight ends. Four is the max, so one of these guys won’t make it. Williams is younger, a better athlete and brings more special teams value. Pruitt has experience, a stronger in-line blocker and has followed Smith around nearly his entire career. This one is close, evident by each sitting right at 50 percent.
Watts’ odds bumped up after Trenton Thompson was waived, but he’s still a corner making the transition to safety. Special teams will be his ticket and he could impress there with his size and physicality.
Steelers Roster Deconstruction – The Longshots
Steelers Roster Deconstruction – Outside-Looking-In
