The Athletic’s Vic Tafur took a look at predicting whether each NFL team would go over or under its projected win total using BetMGM lines, and Tafur is not of the belief that the Pittsburgh Steelers will have a good season. Citing their record in close games last season and brutal final eight games, Tafur believes that the Steelers will go under 7.5 wins this season, giving Mike Tomlin his first losing season as a head coach.
“Another trap line. Surely this team is as good as last season’s 10-game winner with new quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, running game guru Arthur Smith at offensive coordinator and solid draft picks like Troy Fautanu and Payton Wilson. But Pittsburgh was 9-2 in games decided by seven or fewer points, and while there will be some correction there anyway, it also comes with a brutal schedule. They better get off to a great start because their nine games after their bye week are brutal,” Tafur writes.
While Pittsburgh’s record in close games last season could regress, I feel like every year that stat gets cited as to why the Steelers will be worse. In recent years, the Steelers have just managed to win close games, largely thanks to their defense and their offense making just one play when it needed to. Since 2007, when Mike Tomlin took over, the Steelers have won 61.5% of their one-score games, so it’s not the given Tafur makes it out to be that there’s going to be a correction when it comes to Pittsburgh’s success in one-score games. Presumably, with a better offense, the Steelers also won’t have 11 one-score games either.
Given how brutal the schedule is in the second half, with all six divisional games and matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, it’s fair to expect the Steelers to struggle during that stretch. Tafur is right that they have to get off to a solid start, and then they have to not completely suck over their final eight games. Even though the AFC North is a brutal division, the Steelers have been competitive in divisional games, and it’s unrealistic to expect them to go winless down the stretch, which some analysts have talked about.
Getting to eight wins shouldn’t be that much of a challenge even with the brutal schedule. For what it’s worth, most books have the Steelers over/under at 8.5 wins, so BetMGM is coming in on the low side with the 7.5 total. It’s not completely unreasonable to have the under like Tafur does though, as there are a lot of factors that could come into play: poor quarterback performance, injuries, guys generally underperforming. But it would be a surprise and a major disappointment if that was the case, and I’m not counting on a seven-win (or worse) season given how much Pittsburgh’s roster improved this season.
