Play-action can be a very impactful element to a successful NFL offense. Today I wanted to look at the league results, zooming in on under center and shotgun plays for new Steelers OC Arthur Smith’s prior coaching stops, and the Pittsburgh Steelers since 2019. The goal is to see what we might expect from the pairing in the 2024 season.
For starters, play-action is topical considering Pittsburgh has run it at one of the lowest clips in the league. Here is a visual to highlight this point, viewing teams since 2019 with less than 100 total play-action attempts:
Woof. In the five-season span, Pittsburgh had three seasons with less than 100 total play-action attempts: 2019 (71), 2020 (77), and last year in 2023 (80). Each bottomed the league in those respective seasons. Only six total teams had less than 100 total play-action attempts (160 qualifiers) in the timeframe, and to see the Steelers account for half of them hammers the opening point home.
For comparative context, here are the top marks each season:
2019 – 204 (LAR, CAR).
2020 – 231 (KC).
2021 – 222 (MIA).
2022 – 222 (MIA).
2023 – 193 (MIN).
So, we see that play-action has felt non-existent for Pittsburgh in comparison. Let’s see how Smith and Pittsburgh stacked up in the rankings by season:
2019: Smith (TEN OC) – 144 (T-14th). PIT – 71 (32nd).
2020: Smith (TEN OC) – 172 (ninth). PIT – 77 (32nd).
2021: Smith (ATL HC) – 157 (T-15th). PIT – 138 (23rd).
2022: Smith (ATL HC) – 183 (fifth). PIT – 107 (30th).
2023: Smith (ATL HC) – 156 (T-seventh). PIT – 80 (32nd).
Smith was in the top ten in three different seasons in play-action attempts, 2020 in his final season as the Titans offensive coordinator, and the last two years as Atlanta’s head coach encouragingly. Stacking that up against Pittsburgh’s low results would suggest that play-action might be Arthur Smith’s biggest impact on the black and gold.
With the total quantity component for play-action laid out, here are what the attempts looked like under center and in shotgun across the NFL:
Encouragingly, we see that Smith has adjusted to his personnel, with much more varied results compared to Pittsburgh. From 2019-2021, under center play-action was well above the league average in both years as Tennessee’s OC and his first year as head coach in Atlanta, while play-action from shotgun not so much. Then, his last two seasons in Atlanta saw shotgun play-action attempts skyrocket.
In 2020, the Titans had 151 under center play-action attempts, which ranked fourth-most in the entire time frame. Atlanta ranked 17th with 125 in 2021, and Tennessee had 101 which ranked 34th. It is encouraging to see this on Smith’s resume, especially when seeing Pittsburgh well below the league average in all five-seasons, ranking 129th on the high end and 152nd their worst mark (160 qualifiers).
More recently for Smith (2022-2023), shotgun play-action has been the name of the game. The 2022 Falcons tied for 21st with 128 attempts, while last year’s number came in at 98 (T-34th).
A big question is what the total play-action count and under center/shotgun splits will look like in Pittsburgh for 2024, of course. Considering Smith adjusted to his personnel, I wanted to take a quick look at quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields last season.
Last season, the Broncos (Wilson’s former team) had 123 total play-action attempts as a team which tied for 23rd, while the Bears (Fields’ former team) had 129 that ranked 21st. Wilson was more effective off play-action in 2023, and seeing that the new QB room—along with Smith—all do it more, it leads me to believe a noticeable change is coming for Pittsburgh in 2024.
Next, I wanted to dive into the quality of play. Sticking with the splits of under center and shotgun play-action, here is one of our favorite stats here at Steelers Depot in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A = Passing Yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – 45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked):
The teams are separated pretty clearly on the visual. Like the majority of my other studies on Smith, his time as OC with the Titans was the best by far overall. Both seasons were well above the mean in under center play-action ANY/A, with the 2019 group posting a 12.7 number (7.0 was roughly average for each) that was an NFL’s best unit since 2019, impressively.
That was true even before filtering out some teams on this visual, that had less than five attempts in either under center or shotgun play-action attempts. They also fared quite well in shotgun play-action, with a 10.9 ANY/A that tied for second that year, and seventh in the five-year span.
That is extremely encouraging, maximizing the play-fake to RB Derrick Henry, who was a first team all-pro that season with the Titans, and led the league in rushing with 1,540 yards. That definitely factored into their excellent play-action results, along with WR1 A.J. Brown also having a great season with over 1,000 yards, and a solid offensive unit that made a deep playoff run. Sounds great, doesn’t it?
In the 2020 season, their also strong 9.6 under center play-action ANY/A ranked eighth and tied for 13th with a 7.6 shotgun play-action ANY/A. On the extremely optimistic side of things, Pittsburgh’s running back room of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will garner more attention after they came on strong to end 2023, and aid from Smith’s tutelage and rekindle some of the magic he found as OC in Tennessee, the role he’s returning to.
Now for Smith’s time as the head coach of the Falcons. We see a big drop-off in under center play-action ANY/A, closer to the league average in those respective seasons. Particularly the last two seasons, tying for 17th in 2022 with a 7.7 ANY/A. Then in 2023, the number came in at 7.2 which ranked 16th. 2021 was their lowest mark under center, at a 6.9 ANY/A that ranked 21 that year.
Where they fared better overall was shotgun play-action, particularly in 2021 and 2023, with an 8.7 ANY/A (seventh) and 7.5 last season (T-15th). In 2022, their 7.5 number came in at 20th. Clearly, there was less talent on the roster, along with more turnover namely at the quarterback position. The hope is that things will look better in Pittsburgh for Smith, with several of these concerns looking brighter on paper for the black and gold in 2024.
Looking at the Steelers marks the last five seasons, and an utter unwillingness at times to run play-action leaves warranted skepticism for this to occur. Pittsburgh was below average in both under center and shotgun play-action ANY/A in all five years since 2019.
That season was understandably poor, with an injury battered quarterback room, posting a 3.5 shotgun ANY/A in play-action (29th), and an abysmal 2.8 under center play-action ANY/A that was dead last. They followed that up with a 6.7 under center number (T-24th) and a 4.4 in shotgun that ranked 29th in 2020. Then, 2021 marks landed at 5.0 under center (28th) and a 5.4 shotgun ANY/A (26th). They unfortunately regressed in 2022, ranking 30th in each (4.8 under center, 4.2 shotgun).
Last season, although used seldomly, were some of Pittsburgh’s best rankings. Not awe inspiring though, with a 5.6 under center play-action ANY/A (T-24th) and a 6.0 in shotgun that also ranked 24th. Not good, Bob.
Play-action is hopefully one of the biggest stamps we see from Smith starting right away in 2024, with the team needing more quality and quantity than many recent teams. Encouragingly, Smith has it on his resume, and this closing chart of the rankings of all NFL teams since 2019 in this study by season highlights what he will hopefully bring with him to the Steel City.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
